Senate – Queensland – Australia 2022

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2022Term due to expire 2025
Matt Canavan (Liberal National) Nita Green (Labor)
Anthony Chisholm (Labor) Susan McDonald (Liberal National)
Pauline Hanson (One Nation) Gerard Rennick (Liberal National)
James McGrath (Liberal National) Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
Amanda Stoker (Liberal National) Paul Scarr (Liberal National)
Murray Watt (Labor) Larissa Waters (Greens)

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.

Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.

At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.

2019 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 1,128,73038.9+3.62.7231
Labor 654,77422.6-3.81.5797
One Nation297,99410.3+1.10.7189
Greens 288,3209.9+3.10.6956
United Australia Party102,2303.5+3.50.2466
Help End Marijuana Prohibition50,8281.8+1.80.1226
Katter’s Australian Party51,4071.80.00.1240
Animal Justice38,6241.3+0.10.0932
Conservative National Party37,1841.3+1.30.0897
Australian Conservatives29,0961.0+1.00.0702
Democratic Labour28,8111.0+0.40.0695
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,3291.0-0.10.0708
Liberal Democrats24,0000.8-2.00.0579
Rise Up Australia22,5290.8+0.60.0544
Hetty Johnston independent group18,3410.6+0.60.0442
Others99,2673.4

Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the LNP and one for Labor.

Let’s look at the final ten candidates competing for the last three seats, including three incumbent senators and two former members of parliament:

  • Gerard Rennick (LNP) – 0.7936 quotas
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.7889
  • Larissa Waters (GRN) – 0.7771
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.6331
  • Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.2808
  • John Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1726
  • Joy Marriott (KAP) – 0.1659
  • Karagh-Mae Kelly (AJP) – 0.1351
  • Jeff Hodges (SFF) – 0.1121
  • Fraser Anning (CNP) – 0.1099

Anning’s preferences pushed Roberts into the lead.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8318
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8114
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7807
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6376
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2916
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.1775
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1770
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1380
  • Hodges (SFF) – 0.1198

Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to the KAP, and also One Nation and the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8526
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8229
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7857
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6457
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2980
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2020
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1979
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1459

Animal Justice preferences favoured the Greens and HEMP, pushing HEMP out of last place and pushing the Greens ahead of the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8656
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8377
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8354
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6605
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3043
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2224
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2053

KAP preferences flowed most strongly to One Nation, but also pushed the LNP back ahead of the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9359
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8752
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8473
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6826
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3282
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2385

HEMP preferences favoured the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9698
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9117
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8974
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7162
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425

Palmer’s preferences elected Roberts and brought the LNP close to the fifth seat:

  • Roberts (ON) – 1.1276
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.9902
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9376
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7430

Roberts’ surplus elected Rennick, leaving the final contest as:

  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9579
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7681

Candidates

Assessment
The Queensland senators up for election in 2022 are skewed to the right – the LNP and One Nation hold four seats while Labor holds just two. The left only managed two seats in 2019, but if there is any swing to Labor they should be in a position to win two seats along with one Green.

If this takes place, it means that there is one less seat for the right, and the last seat is likely to be a fierce contest between the LNP’s Amanda Stoker and Pauline Hanson, with Clive Palmer and Campbell Newman as dark horses. Hanson would be a favourite in current circumstances, since it looks likely that the LNP primary vote will be hit hard.

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137 COMMENTS

  1. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-761466

    In by the “Greens won`t win a second seat” you mean that the Greens won`t get both their first two Queensland Senate candidates up at this election, I agree with you. If you are suggesting that the Greens winning a seat at the previous election means they won`t win this time, I disagree, if the Greens do not win this time it will be in spite of them winning last time. The ALP vote is likely to be quite a bit larger, potentially to the point of having a surplus after electing the second ALP candidate and that would be helpful to the Greens` chances through preference flows.

  2. The question really won’t end up being how liked is newman amongst the electorate – but how many liberal voters liked Newman enough to switch their vote from liberal to Newman – the draining of liberal party first preference is what the sixth seat will be fought on.

    @BjA from Ryan – No one is predicting a second greens senator out of the six elected this election – we mean one plus the one we got last election – the greens need to only do s well as last time to get that much. Even achieving quota would be an increase of 50%

  3. Of course I mean 2nd Greens seat in the Senate – of course I didn’t think 2 in the same half Senate election, geez.

    I’m thinking the Labor vote will be stronger this time because that is where any swing will manifest & last time I remember the Greens were desperate to get Larissa Waters re-elected. So I doubt someone brand new would get elected.

    Like I said, I’m prepared to be wrong – if a Green gets up this time, so be it.

  4. If the swing from LNP->ALP is more like 4%, rather than 7 or higher, and Greens basically hover where they are, perhaps even doing very slightly worse, that puts Labor in a position where they’ve got their two senators but have next to nothing left over to give preference wise, while LNP/LDP/UAP/ON still have a ton of votes to dump on each other. In that case Greens could find themselves on a knife edge between eating their cake and eating one of the biggest shit sandwiches in the history of Queensland politics, and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead (or exhaust their preferences. or blow my brains out). So that’s not a scenario nobody’s predicting, in fact many people have predicted it in the media and in this very thread. It’s pessimistic for sure but entirely plausible

  5. Pretty myopic move by the LNP to put the only Minister and woman in the top 3 in the least winnable spot.
    McGrath and Canavan aren’t really offering anything to the ticket either. Canavan couldn’t even get back into cabinet after backing the Barnaby coup.
    The majors really need to rethink their Senate strategy, as voters are considering more than just party but personality, especially given the rise of smaller, individual-centred parties elected across the country.

  6. ‘and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead’

    Or they finish just ahead of UAP who inevitably give #6 to LNP.

  7. Agree with your point LJ Davidson regarding major parties and their ‘preselection’ for Senate positions. Kristina Kenneally being a minister should have gotten top position and Deb O’Neill, being just a backbencher, relegated to third position or asked to contest a lower house seat (she could easily have sought nomination for her old seat of Robertson).

  8. LJ
    Some libs may vote 1 for Amanda Stoker. She could do a Jim Molan and run an unofficial campaign. It would be nice to see voters skip the loathsome Canavan.

  9. The greens not getting in would be ridiculous –
    – to lose the greens have to not win the last seat
    – the last seat will be decided by the last 25% of the remaining vote that has not been assigned to a quota.
    – Greens started off with just over 10% primary last election – this means their vote cannot be ignored , in order to get the 15% quota required someone else would need to get a higher vote then them – effectively meaning the last 25% is like a lower house seat in the way it acts, eliminate until someone has a majority of 13%.
    – With this in mind it is hard to see how any other party could beat the greens to 13%, given the starting place of 10% , the strong flows from AJP and HEMP, the lack of ambition from Albanese on climate, the strong campaign from the greens and the high exhaust rate, which will make up some of that 25%
    – The only way I can see the greens losing at all is the scenario in which the greens are in contention from the 5th and 6th spots with two other candidates and their preferences are distributed securing the 5th and 6th seats for the other two – I still contend the green vote will be strong enough due to the strong campaign on the ground and also Albanese for this to happen
    -Btw I don’t see greens taking one nations seat in the senate, despite what the apparatchiks are saying – it will be from the coalition or labor again

  10. It’s important to keep in mind that in 2019, Gerard Rennick (LNP #3) only barely cleared quota on the distribution of the One Nation surplus. So (all else being equal) if you take 0.15 quotas (2.5%) off the Liberals and give them to Labor, that puts things back to a 3-3 Left-Right split.

    I want to emphasise that a Left-Right split of 4-2 is pretty unusual. 4/7ths is 57%, and the LNP got a 2PP of 58% on a solid swing. Labor just need to claw that back to 55-45 and that should be enough.

  11. Hypothetical question here…. Should Pauline lose her seat, do you think she will go gracefully or try to bludgeon Malcolm Roberts out so she can take the casual vacancy?

  12. @Redistributed

    My guess is no. Remember when Paul Hanson failed to win a senate seat for One Nation in 2001?. The incumbent One Nation senator Len Harris didn’t stand down for Hanson. Despite Hanson being the leader of the party, a bigger profile then Harris, and more electable. Whether you agree with Hanson or not she can attract more media coverage then Harris 10 times over.

    If Hanson tried to force Malcolm Roberts to stand down. She would risk Roberts defecting to another party like Fraser Anning. Anning quitting the party was all over because he refused to stand down for Roberts in the first place. Roberts had to quit the senate from the citizenship bungle.

    Unlike the major parties where they can offer carrots in federal and state seats for politicians to make way. They just don’t have those options in a minor party like One Nation.

  13. Hanson gambled by running in Blair in 1998, rather than the Senate. It did not turn out well for her. Had she instead run for the Senate and (as seems almost certain in retrospect) won, she would have had an additional 6 years in the Senate, been in a better position to maintain control of the party and had a better chance of (re-)election in 2004 and if she hadn`t been re-elected she would already have qualified for the Parliamentary Pension from the end of her term in 2004.

  14. Greens pushing hard for that second Senator with their new policy to assist coal miners in transitioning out of the industry. Will it attract a significant number of new votes or is it irrelevant to their chances?

  15. Tracey
    The GAP have no chance
    Wilson
    The policy is specifically designed to appeal to the voters in QLD they don’t traditionally get (probably Labor voters in regional QLD)

  16. A question on coal – where is the 65% of power that coal is producing now on the east coast going to come from. It is a big difference to make up in a very short period of time.

  17. Ryan Spencer, yes I think that’s clearly the intention. I’m wondering if others think this move will be effective at winning votes and getting Penny Allman-Payne elected, or not.

  18. James, it’ll be a managed transition over at least a decade. Nobody is proposing an end to coal power overnight, not even the Greens. I would imagine the plan to replace coal would mostly involve renewable energy with batteries, as well as gas.

  19. @ Wilson working in energy I know it’s not a transition it is a chaotic mess. It is not well planned or financed

  20. Agree more with James’ point that the transition away from coal will be rushed. It should have commenced at least a decade or two ago if it was to be successful. Would agree that coal still has to be phased out but it could be done more gradually with a complete phase out at least post 2050 to be financially viable.

  21. James, perhaps it’s a chaotic mess right now, I don’t know personally, but I’ll bow to your superior knowledge of the industry. The point is, a transition has to happen at some point. If Yoh An Tee is right and it was best to start planning it 10-20 years ago, the second-best time to start planning is now, because the way the cost of renewables is going, a day will come where thermal coal cannot compete with renewables anymore and mass coal plant closures will take place overnight, leaving many people suddenly unemployed. Given AGL recently brought forward the projected closure of Bayswater and Loy Yang A stations, and a majority of AGLs shareholders want even stricter targets [1], that day seems inevitable and approaching sooner than we may think it will, so the earlier we start planning, the better off coal workers will be. Metallurgical coal will stick around a bit longer, but they’re already producing steel without the use of coal in Sweden [2], so the end is probably coming there too.

    Anyway, as far as electoral politics is concerned, I wonder if the Greens’ plan will win them significant Senate votes in Central Queensland or any other coal mining area. Are coal miners and workers in related industries able to see what’s on the horizon, or will they continue voting for parties who tell them they won’t need to change anything? I haven’t yet seen any serious transition plan from other parties.

    [1] – https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/10/agl-brings-forward-closure-date-of-two-largest-coal-fired-power-plants-as-market-shifts-to-renewables
    [2] – https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/fossil-free-steel-1.6146061

  22. There’s likely a focus on convincing these regional areas to vote Green given Allman-Payne is from Gladstone, and she’s said she’ll have her electorate office there.

  23. So even if LDP win a seat (doubtful they do) they still have to change their name? I’d think the case would be appealed again.
    Something similar happened to the DLP and the ALP but they had a little bit more wiggle room when they changed the spelling of Labor to Labour.

  24. I read Paul Williams the other day predicted 2 Labor, 2 LNP, 1 Green, and 1 ON. He said he thought it would be a fight between ON, UAP, and LDP for the last senate seat.

    Williams acknowledge Clive Palmer is polling better nationally because of his big spend. And interestingly he said Campbell Newman was getting traction on the Gold Coast.

  25. Campbell Newman led LNP to the biggest loss in the Coalition’s history
    . He succeeded in doing this for the same reason That Trump was such a divisive figure in US politics. An ego bigger than reality and an unwillingness to listen to advice.
    The only people below Newman on my below the line Senate ballot will be Nazi’s, communists, eco- fascists and fascists.
    However Newman’s divisiveness means he had friends who vote Liberal Party. He would be highly damaging to LNP if he was their candidate in a lower house seat where he would need 50% of vote but unfortunately he is electable for Lib Dems when he only needs to be ahead of LNP’s third Senate candidate.
    The big issue is how well Clive Palmer will do. I have yet to meet a person voting for Clive Palmer but I myself like some of his older policies and detest his idiotic Freedom message.
    There is no doubt the last QUeensland Senate seat will be a very viscous fight . In fact it will be one of the most interesting fights in this election.

  26. I just now realised that I’ve commented on, I think, every other senate race, except this one. Which is odd, given that I live in Queensland…

    Having said that, maybe it’s because it’s such a hard one to call… even living here, I can’t get a good read on just which way the state will go. PHON and UAP are both Qld parties in terms of origin, which means either one could outperform expectations. Greens have an interesting situation in that their lead candidate is regional. The LNP have a lineup of right-wingers (by Liberal party standards, I mean), which might harm their senate vote, or not. The ALP’s lineup are basically people that only politically-engaged people will know (and then an unknown for the third candidate).

    It’s also really hard to tell how people will view the Coalition federally in terms of COVID, etc. On the one hand, I think most people were happy that Labor kept COVID out pretty well, and only used short, sharp lockdowns. On the other hand, people also got really upset about border controls because of their other impacts.

    If I had to make a prediction here and now, I’d probably lean towards Labor 2, Greens 1, LNP 2, and then one last seat that might go LNP, UAP, or PHON.

    But there are so many question marks, and polling isn’t giving the necessary information to make the predictions I’d otherwise need.

    For example, if the Greens run a strong enough regional campaign, and enough voters decide that they want Labor in power, but don’t want them to have both houses, the Greens could get enough to be in the running for a second seat. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

    I could also see a good chunk of anti-LNP sentiment helping UAP or PHON, too.

    As a final effort to make a bit of a prediction, let’s look at swings. PollBludger currently thinks there’s an 8.4% swing to Labor. If we suppose that, say, 6% of that occurs in the Senate directly, with the other 2% mostly going to the Greens… and then assume that the LNP get, say, a 10% swing against them, with a swing of 2% to UAP/PHON, then we’d ultimately be looking at quotas something like:

    LNP – 2.023 quotas
    Labor – 1.999 quotas
    Greens – 0.8358 quotas
    UAP/PHON – 1.1053 quotas (likely to be PHON dominant).
    This leaves about a quota to all other parties… and I don’t see any of them managing to get enough preference flow to overtake Greens or UAP/PHON.

    So based on this, very simplistic analysis, it would be LNP 2, Labor 2, Greens 1, PHON 1.

    But that’s assuming everything stays as it currently seems to be. I’d like to think Labor will strengthen, Greens may pull some extra votes in the regional areas, and PHON/UAP would end up losing some of the votes. But I’m not going to put my hopes on it.

  27. So here are my thoughts…
    1. Senator James McGrath – LNP (full quota)
    2. Senator Murray Watt – ALP (full quota)
    3. Senator Matt Canavan – LNP (full quota)
    4. Senator Pauline Hanson – One Nation (UAP/LDP minor preferences)
    5. Penny Allman-Payne – Greens (ALP excess quota preferences)
    6. Senator Amanda Stoker – LNP (UAP/LDP/ALP preferences)

    The problem with the transfer between Green and ALP (and vice-versa) is that everyone always counts it as 1:1. It isn’t – there’s leakage away from each other to the LNP. In the case of the Greens it’s anywhere between 80/20 and 65/35, making a Green primary vote only worth a net transfer of anywhere between 0.6 and 0.3 of a whole vote to Labor. Anecdotally about 10 to 15 percent of ALP primary votes stop with the LNP before the Greens, although that’s normally not counted because you need the final two to be LNP and Greens. That’s a fairly uncommon result.

    Senator Hanson will get somewhere between 10 and 12 percent, needing just a few extra preferences from the other minors to push her over the quota. It will be a combination of UAP, LDP and the micro-parties that does it, but her primary vote will still be higher than the Greens and the leftover ALP quota.

    In a way I think it will be a repeat of the 2019 Senate race where the ALP lost Chris Ketter and this time around Anthony Chisolm will be in the hot seat. If this does happen it also means that the Left will hold both of the ALP’s Senate spots in Queensland (Nita Green and Murray Watt), a profoundly unstable situation.

    One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is the 2016 change to above-the-line voting with the effective abolition of tickets and the loss of the ability of parties to funnel preference flows. In 2019 they were all over the place and in many cases there was a brief flirtation with minor parties and then a return to their “traditional” base. This was particularly evident with the UAP and One Nation votes ending up with the ALP or LNP.

    Another difficulty with minor parties is an inability to put boots on the ground. That’s still important, even with decreased numbers of people voting on the Saturday. Of the jobs that need warm bodies it’s really only the LNP, ALP, UAP (because money also buys support) and The Greens (sort of). There are gaps in One Nation’s ability to cover booths, but there’s also pre-polling, declared institutions and postal votes. It’s only the LNP and the ALP who can cover every possible interaction with all voters.

    I did say “sort of” for The Greens – they can do the pre-poll and election day in the urban areas, but there’s a lot of other voters in seats they can’t reach. One Nation has the same problem in that they seem to be stretched thin where candidates don’t have personal networks to draw on. Clive’s paid workers can be difficult to detach from their chairs. None of them can get a HTV to a postal voter or a declared institution.

    So they idea that a minor party – I’m going to choose the Australian Values Party as an example – can pull enough primary votes that can reliably transfer to preferences is getting less and less relevant. In a sense minor parties just form part of the background static.

  28. Mark, won’t happen on current polling, nor will Chisholm lose to Watt. I think most ALP voters here in QLD know the difference between the ALP left and right and will vote BELOW the line and vote more Chisholm above Watt. And that is certainly what I will be doing when my postal ballot arrives.

    Stroker is a huge joke. After her abmyssal performance this parliamentary term and her cringe-worthy meltdown on election night at the last state election she is clearly unfit to serve as senator and I’d give Chisholm a 99% chance of beating her for the last senate spot.

    As much as I don’t like Newman or Palmer, at this rate I’d put them above this out of touch LNP government.

  29. Right-wing voters must be feeling spoilt for choice. Hanson, Palmer, Newman, Canavan and now Christensen too. Is it possible the far right could be in the running for a second seat at the expense of LNP? Eg 1 LNP, 1 ONP, 1 UAP, 3 Labor/Green, or for a 4-2 split, maybe 2 LNP, 1 UAP, 1 ONP, 2 Labor etc?

  30. Chisholm and Watt are both very low-profile, and the only person who’s ever successfully reversed a party ticketing decision is Lisa Singh, and even she couldn’t survive at a half-Senate election. You’re one person, you’re entitled to vote how you choose, but very few others will care. It’s worth pointing out that Chisholm came a distant third on BTLs in 2016, below Watt and Claire Moore.
    What’s the difference anyway, they all have to vote the same in Parliament?

  31. As it stands Third place on the ALP ticket will only get up if Greens are eliminated before Chisholm. One reason I vote below the line is so Thr at I can rank teams in the order I prefer. I have had dealings with Anthony Chisholm
    over preference negotiations and he has proven to be trustworthy in contrast to most other parties.
    In 2019 I ranked Ketter higher than all Liberals other than Rennick and higher than rest of ALP.
    Daniel the percentage of Queensland voters voting below the line in 2019 was 6.9% compared to National percentage of 7.3%. Therefore your statement that you “think most ALP voters here in QLD know the difference between the ALP left and right and will vote BELOW the line and vote more Chisholm above Watt.” is not supported by factual information. The great majority of voters follow How to Votes that direct them towards Above the Line giving them not for that matter the How to vote publisher no opportunity to do anything other than follow every Parties own hierarchy. ATL voting does not give you the opportunity a voter any choice other than to Parrot every parties desired hierarchy.
    Whilst I will vote below the line I would not support a candidate issuing a below the line How to vote it would be a grave political mistake.
    I hope you are right and Chisholm beats the numer 1 and 2 ALP. Candidates but you are wrong .

  32. Murray Watt does have a much higher profile than Anthony Chisholm. He is often quoted in the media in Queensland and has written a number of opinion pieces that have appeared in the Courier Mail.He is a regular contributor on the Senate and in Senate Committees

  33. I think Queensland has the most predictable Senate race. I think it’s most likely to be 2-2-1-1. LNP will probably end up on around 2.3, ALP around 1.9, Greens around 0.8 and PHON on or around 0.69. The last seat will become a contest between LNP and PHON but I think Hanson will get up on strong preference flows from the other right wing minor parties

  34. I’m more than happy to stick my neck out and say that BTL votes will have approximately the same impact in Qld that they have had the last two elections. Minimal.

    Now, as Glen noted, BludgerTrack is currently showing a BIG swing to Labor in Qld both in primaries and in the 2PP, with the Greens vote holding up and a lot of the swing coming out of the LNP.

    If the 2PP is almost 50-50 it’s going to take some distinct weirdness to produce anything other than a 3-3 Senate result.

    Last time, at Roberts’ point of election, he and Rennick where on 2.12q combined, with Waters and Ketter on 1.69q combined.

    Getting back to a 3-3 split in the Senate is possible once the Left total at that stage exceeds the Right total. That’s only a quarter of a quota of voters who need to change. Under half of what BludgerTrack thinks is happening.

    BTW @Mark Yore, I wouldn’t spend too much time thinking about Greens Senate prefs; the chances of any ATL prefs getting distributed are pretty low.

  35. Is it me or does this ballot contain a motley crew of PHON’s greatest hits? Group A Len Harris (Former PHON Senator) and Group H Steve Dickson (Former LNP/PHON State MP) with Rebeccca Llyod (dis-endorsed PHON candidate for Brisbane). PHON is down at Group X.

    25 groups for this Senate ballot paper with 8 ungrouped, including 7 independents and oddly one minor party, Katter’s Australia Party (KAP). Really surprised they didn’t find someone, anyone, to run as a second candidate just so that could get a group on the ballot.

  36. When will the list of senator candidates for the 2022 election be complete … this list does not show any candidates from the “legalise marijuana party” yet on their facebook page and website they say there have 2 candidates running for Queensland senate … so your list can not be complete … can you please make it complete so we all know exactly who is running!!

    https://legalise.org.au/election/candidates/

  37. Unless Labor can increase their vote significantly it’ll be 3 for the libs and one each for PH greens labor

  38. LNP will be preferencing One Nation second on their Senate HTV cards in Queensland. As LNP voters are some of the most obedient voters when it comes to How to Vote cards, we should expect to see a strong flow.

    I’m curious now if this will mean ONP will get close to 2 quotas. I expect ONP to get almost one outright before preferences start to be allocated (~0.75). Consider this scenario, what happens if LNP gets struck out towards the end of the count, falling just short of Stoker’s quota on a figure like 2.85? Theoretically, by this point in the count we probably would have also seen LDP, UAP and others probably also struck out and delivering ONP a significant chunk of quota.

    So maybe at this point ONP are hovering with around 1.2 of a quota. LNP’s remaining 0.85 quota gets reallocated and split-down with ~0.8 going towards ONP. This will leave ONP with 2 full quotas!

    To be honest though I think it will play out like this on quotas before preferences are allocated:

    LNP losing ground with close to 2 outright. ALP recovering their vote from last election with a similar quota to 2. Greens almost landing a full quota outright (~0.8) and ONP with ~0.7. Greens will easily pick up their seat once preferences start being allocated. And so will ONP once UAP and LDP are struck.

    This gives a 2 LNP 2 ALP 1 GRN 1 ONP seat composition.

    I have figured ONP will get similar senate vote to last election (~10%) once you balance out the more crowded field of contenders and potentially weaker party interest with the fact that Pauline Hanson herself is on the ballot this election – by far their strongest brand and candidate.

  39. SEQ Observor with the figures you cite yes quite feasible. However for Liberalas to get less than 28% in QUeensland Senate we would be looking at an ALP landslide. I don’t think this is on cards. Liberals or Australian Labor Party getting 3 quotas without preferenced in QUeensland (42%) is unlikely so senate positions 5 & 6 will go to minors or be determined on Preferences. My prediction after Transfer Votes and Preferential Votes 2 LNP 2 Australian Labor Party Hanson and a Green. The factor that could throw this out is Palmer and at the moment I think electorate are sick of him but he only needs about 8% to stop regurgitating and he will pick up balance of Quota with preferences. an

  40. I would suspect there’ll be too much leakage from ON, UAP and Newman splitting the right wing vote, for anything above 2-2-1-1.

    The combined red-green left will have enough for 3 quotas, and ON won’t get enough above the second LNP to get more than one.

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