Southern River – WA 2021

ALP 7.9%

Incumbent MP
Terry Healy, since 2017.

Geography
Southern River covers southern parts of the Gosnells council area, including the suburbs of Southern River, Huntingdale and parts of Gosnells.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The seat of Southern River has existed since 1996, and has always been won by the party that won the election.

The seat was originally won by the Liberal Party’s Monica Holmes. The seat was created as a marginal Labor seat, partly out of remnants of the Labor seat of Kenwick. Holmes defeated sitting Member for Kenwick, Judyth Watson.

In 2001, Holmes was defeated by the ALP’s Paul Andrews. Andrews won a second term in 2005, defeating an attempt by Holmes to return to Parliament.

In 2008, Andrews was defeated by new Liberal candidate Peter Abetz. Abetz was re-elected in 2013 but lost in 2017 to Labor’s Terry Healy.

Candidates

  • Shazi Siddiqui (Waxit)
  • Katie Hawkes (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Terry Healy (Labor)
  • Simone Collins (Greens)
  • Julia Walsh (Independent)
  • Malcolm Heffernan (One Nation)
  • Wesley Du Preez (Liberal Democrats)
  • Gerard Spoelstra (Australian Christians)
  • Ruben Zandman (Liberal)

Assessment
Labor’s margin is substantial but this seat has a long history of being marginal and flipping back and forth, and this margin could easily be overcome if the Liberal Party does well.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Terry Healy Labor 11,31149.7+15.7
Peter Abetz Liberal 8,85338.9-17.1
Toni Pikos-Sallie Greens 1,4436.3+0.5
Steven SeckerIndependent3111.4+1.4
Craig HarleyIndependent2521.1+1.1
Aman SinghMicro Business2271.0+1.0
Ash SrivastavaMatheson for WA2221.0+1.0
David FishlockLiberal Democrats1460.6+0.6
Informal 1,1454.8

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Terry Healy Labor 13,17057.9+18.8
Peter Abetz Liberal 9,59142.1-18.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 51.5% in the centre to 67.5% in the east.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East67.56,07424.6
West52.85,09020.6
Central51.53,72515.1
Pre-poll58.72,65310.7
Other votes55.75,22321.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Southern River at the 2017 WA state election

3 COMMENTS

  1. Another one of these seats south of Perth that doesn’t seem to have any clear geographic centre. The area around Southern River itself is typical new outer suburbia, and as such can be prone to swinging considerably, where as the northern bit closer to Gosnells is Labor through and through

    Predicting a Labor retain, but not with any great confidence at this stage

  2. Wow, this is one of the safest Labor seats in the state, with this new margin it is fair to say the Liberal party will never win it back unless they win a landslide themselves.

  3. @Daniel

    This seat covers some of the most swingy voters in Perth – if all the swing voters go back to the Liberals, and these boundaries hold (pushing it into Gosnells would make it safer for Labor), then the Liberals stand a chance here again.

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