Roe – WA 2021

NAT 13.6% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Peter Rundle, since 2017.

Geography
South-eastern Western Australia. Roe covers southern parts of the Wheatbelt, and then stretches further east to also cover Esperance.

Redistribution
Roe gained Jerramungup council area from Albany and lost Cuballing, Kulin and Wickepin council areas from Central Wheatbelt. This reduced the Nationals margin from 14.4% to 13.6%.

History
The current seat of Roe was created in 2017, primarily as a successor to Wagin, which had existed since 1989, when it replaced Narrogin and Katanning-Roe. Narrogin had been created in 1950, when the original seat of Wagin was abolished. From the 1920s until today, the seats named Wagin and Narrogin have almost always been held by the Country and National parties.

There was also a previous seat of Roe which was primarily replaced by Eyre in 2008. Roe had a long history of being held by the Country/National parties until 1974, and again since 1989, but the seat in this area was won by the Liberal Party in 2005.

Nationals candidate Peter Rundle won Roe in 2017.

Candidates

  • Gary Jammu (Waxit)
  • David Dwyer (Liberal)
  • Brad Willis (Labor)
  • Nikki Starr (Greens)
  • Graham Bushby (One Nation)
  • Bevan Steele (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
  • Peter Rundle (Nationals)
  • Nita Thakrar (No Mandatory Vaccination)
  • Cathie Kelly (Australian Christians)

Assessment
Roe is a safe Nationals seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Rundle Nationals 9,55342.5-13.241.7
Graham Jacobs Liberal 5,38323.9-2.824.6
Bradley Willis Labor 3,20314.2+3.414.6
Eketerina ZacklovaOne Nation1,7928.0+8.08.0
Peter StaceyShooters, Fishers & Farmers1,1825.3+5.35.1
Simone McInnes Greens 7593.4-0.43.4
Cathie KellyAustralian Christians5362.4-0.62.3
Tony FelsIndependent760.3+0.30.3
Informal 8833.8

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Rundle Nationals 14,47464.4-2.363.6
Graham Jacobs Liberal 7,99735.6+2.336.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: east, north-west and south-west.

The Nationals won a slim 54% majority in the east (which was previously contained in the Liberal seat of Eyre) while they won over 70% in the north-west and south-west.

Voter groupALP prim %NAT 2CP %Total votes% of votes
East15.754.04,88122.6
North-West13.671.44,13319.1
South-West16.173.33,34715.5
Pre-poll13.862.35,18924.0
Other votes13.962.54,06818.8

Election results in Roe at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Nationals vs Liberal) and Labor primary votes.

1 COMMENT

  1. Labor will make it to 2nd here and in Moore (like in Central Wheatbelt 2017) but it will be little more than a curiosity

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