ALP 2.8%
Incumbent MP
Louise Staley (Liberal), since 2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Ripon covers rural areas to the west of Ballarat and Bendigo, including the towns of Ararat, Beaufort, Bridgewater, Maryborough and Creswick. The electorate covers the entirety of the Central Goldfields and Pyrenees council area, and parts of Ararat, Ballarat, Corangamite, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Loddon and Northern Grampians council areas.
Redistribution
Ripon shifted south, taking in more areas near Ballarat. Ripon took in Scarsdale, Linton, Haddon and Smythesdale from Buninyong, and taking in other areas from Wendouree and Polwarth. Ripon lost Stawell to Lowan and also lost Donald and Charlton to Mildura. These changes flipped the seat from an extremely slim 0.02% margin for the Liberal Party to 2.8% for Labor.
History
The current Ripon electoral district has existed since 1976. In that form, it was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 to 1999, by the ALP from 1999 until 2014, and by the Liberal Party since 2014.
The first Ripon district was created in 1945. It was held by the ALP’s Ernie Morton from 1945 to 1947 and again from 1950 to 1955. The Liberal Party’s Rutherford Guthrie held the seat from 1947 to 1950. The original Ripon district was abolished in 1955.
When Ripon was created in 1976, it was first won by Liberal MP Tom Austin, who had held the seat of Hampden since 1972. Hampden was abolished in the 1976 redistribution, and Austin moved to Ripon.
Austin served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1978 to 1982 and as Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 1985 to 1987. He retired in 1992.
Austin was succeeded by Steve Elder, who had been Liberal Member for Ballarat North from 1988 until the seat’s abolition in 1992. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government until his defeat at the 1999 election.
Elder was defeated in 1999 by Joe Helper. Helper was re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010.
Ripon was redrawn as a notional Liberal seat in 2014, and Helper retired. Liberal candidate Louise Staley won the seat narrowly. She was re-elected even more narrowly in 2018.
- Luke Smith (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Wayne Rigg (Independent)
- Earl James (Greens)
- Martha Haylett (Labor)
- Wren Louise Wilson (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Louise Staley (Liberal)
- Holly Sitters (Animal Justice)
- Craig George (Family First)
- Bernard Quince (Independent)
Assessment
Ripon is a very marginal seat. The redistribution has slightly improved Labor’s position here, but it could still go either way.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah De Santis | Labor | 15,280 | 38.1 | +3.1 | 41.2 |
| Louise Staley | Liberal | 15,594 | 38.9 | +6.2 | 36.6 |
| Peter Fava | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 2,622 | 6.5 | +6.6 | 5.6 |
| Serge Simic | Greens | 1,667 | 4.2 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| Sandra Gibbs | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 1,929 | 4.8 | +4.8 | 4.1 |
| Peter Mulcahy | Democratic Labour | 1,315 | 3.3 | +2.1 | 2.8 |
| Anna Hills | Animal Justice | 835 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.3 |
| Jeff Truscott | Independent | 377 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Bronwyn Jennings | Socialists | 219 | 0.5 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Maria Mayer | Independent | 217 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,606 | 8.3 | +1.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah De Santis | Labor | 20,020 | 50.0 | +1.0 | 52.8 |
| Louise Staley | Liberal | 20,035 | 50.0 | -1.0 | 47.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 53.6% in the north-east and 59.2% in the south-east. The Liberal Party polled 51.6% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 59.2 | 8,915 | 22.7 |
| North-East | 53.6 | 7,878 | 20.0 |
| West | 48.4 | 7,534 | 19.1 |
| Pre-poll | 53.3 | 8,444 | 21.5 |
| Other votes | 47.8 | 6,573 | 16.7 |
Election results in Ripon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Look like t he nats ar e targetting gg here expect a 1, 2 campaign from the libs and bats though historic low swing suggest it might be a close labor hold
Ripon is not a good bellwether and normally is decided by local factors as @Darth Vader correctly pointed out it barely swings and is usually static it actually has not changed hands since 1999 and it was only different boundaries which is why Libs held between 2014-2022
I’ve never understood this seat. Looking at the demographics and industries I would have thought it would be a safe Nationals seat. Labor did very well to win here in 2022 and perhaps Haylett can build a profile to hang on (regional MPs having a bit more staying power).
Jacinta Allan being a Bendigo MP doesn’t seem to have helped Labor that much in regional Victoria, but perhaps that hasn’t been tested enough.
@ BNJ
It has a history dating from the Gold Rush where there has been a Labor vote it contains a lot of Labor voting towns dating from the Gold Rush. The Eureka stockade happened over 150 years ago nearby and it still shapes voting patterns in this area. Maryborough had knitting mills while Ararat has been rural blue collar unionised workers while there farmers who are conservative. There has been a growth in tree changers here.
the liberals probly would have held here if not for the new boundaries. while the small swings are custom in a liberl versus labor contest the swings involving a nationals candidate may differ. if the Nationals throw everything at this like they did bendigo federally we might see them win it the nationals seats are comfortably safe in a versus labor contest. with the exception of Morwell. however that was a 3 way contest with the liberals so i imagine now there is a sitting member they should be able to retain that with an increased margin and without any serious challengers in Shepparton and Mildura which agains were 3 way contests with a lib and ind as the labor vote was only in single digits but should recover. I imagine the Nationals will contest Bass and maybe even Eureka and Bendigo East as well. they will likely throw in a candidate in Benambra but they wont win that seat.