ALP 2.8%
Incumbent MP
Louise Staley (Liberal), since 2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Ripon covers rural areas to the west of Ballarat and Bendigo, including the towns of Ararat, Beaufort, Bridgewater, Maryborough and Creswick. The electorate covers the entirety of the Central Goldfields and Pyrenees council area, and parts of Ararat, Ballarat, Corangamite, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Loddon and Northern Grampians council areas.
Redistribution
Ripon shifted south, taking in more areas near Ballarat. Ripon took in Scarsdale, Linton, Haddon and Smythesdale from Buninyong, and taking in other areas from Wendouree and Polwarth. Ripon lost Stawell to Lowan and also lost Donald and Charlton to Mildura. These changes flipped the seat from an extremely slim 0.02% margin for the Liberal Party to 2.8% for Labor.
History
The current Ripon electoral district has existed since 1976. In that form, it was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 to 1999, by the ALP from 1999 until 2014, and by the Liberal Party since 2014.
The first Ripon district was created in 1945. It was held by the ALP’s Ernie Morton from 1945 to 1947 and again from 1950 to 1955. The Liberal Party’s Rutherford Guthrie held the seat from 1947 to 1950. The original Ripon district was abolished in 1955.
When Ripon was created in 1976, it was first won by Liberal MP Tom Austin, who had held the seat of Hampden since 1972. Hampden was abolished in the 1976 redistribution, and Austin moved to Ripon.
Austin served as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1978 to 1982 and as Deputy Leader of the Opposition from 1985 to 1987. He retired in 1992.
Austin was succeeded by Steve Elder, who had been Liberal Member for Ballarat North from 1988 until the seat’s abolition in 1992. He served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Kennett government until his defeat at the 1999 election.
Elder was defeated in 1999 by Joe Helper. Helper was re-elected in 2002, 2006 and 2010, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2006 to 2010.
Ripon was redrawn as a notional Liberal seat in 2014, and Helper retired. Liberal candidate Louise Staley won the seat narrowly. She was re-elected even more narrowly in 2018.
- Luke Smith (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Wayne Rigg (Independent)
- Earl James (Greens)
- Martha Haylett (Labor)
- Wren Louise Wilson (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- Louise Staley (Liberal)
- Holly Sitters (Animal Justice)
- Craig George (Family First)
- Bernard Quince (Independent)
Assessment
Ripon is a very marginal seat. The redistribution has slightly improved Labor’s position here, but it could still go either way.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah De Santis | Labor | 15,280 | 38.1 | +3.1 | 41.2 |
| Louise Staley | Liberal | 15,594 | 38.9 | +6.2 | 36.6 |
| Peter Fava | Shooters, Fishers & Farmers | 2,622 | 6.5 | +6.6 | 5.6 |
| Serge Simic | Greens | 1,667 | 4.2 | -3.0 | 4.6 |
| Sandra Gibbs | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 1,929 | 4.8 | +4.8 | 4.1 |
| Peter Mulcahy | Democratic Labour | 1,315 | 3.3 | +2.1 | 2.8 |
| Anna Hills | Animal Justice | 835 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.3 |
| Jeff Truscott | Independent | 377 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.9 |
| Bronwyn Jennings | Socialists | 219 | 0.5 | +0.6 | 0.6 |
| Maria Mayer | Independent | 217 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 0.5 |
| Others | 1.0 | ||||
| Informal | 3,606 | 8.3 | +1.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Sarah De Santis | Labor | 20,020 | 50.0 | +1.0 | 52.8 |
| Louise Staley | Liberal | 20,035 | 50.0 | -1.0 | 47.2 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 53.6% in the north-east and 59.2% in the south-east. The Liberal Party polled 51.6% in the west.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 59.2 | 8,915 | 22.7 |
| North-East | 53.6 | 7,878 | 20.0 |
| West | 48.4 | 7,534 | 19.1 |
| Pre-poll | 53.3 | 8,444 | 21.5 |
| Other votes | 47.8 | 6,573 | 16.7 |
Election results in Ripon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Look like t he nats ar e targetting gg here expect a 1, 2 campaign from the libs and bats though historic low swing suggest it might be a close labor hold
Ripon is not a good bellwether and normally is decided by local factors as @Darth Vader correctly pointed out it barely swings and is usually static it actually has not changed hands since 1999 and it was only different boundaries which is why Libs held between 2014-2022
I’ve never understood this seat. Looking at the demographics and industries I would have thought it would be a safe Nationals seat. Labor did very well to win here in 2022 and perhaps Haylett can build a profile to hang on (regional MPs having a bit more staying power).
Jacinta Allan being a Bendigo MP doesn’t seem to have helped Labor that much in regional Victoria, but perhaps that hasn’t been tested enough.
@ BNJ
It has a history dating from the Gold Rush where there has been a Labor vote it contains a lot of Labor voting towns dating from the Gold Rush. The Eureka stockade happened over 150 years ago nearby and it still shapes voting patterns in this area. Maryborough had knitting mills while Ararat has been rural blue collar unionised workers while there farmers who are conservative. There has been a growth in tree changers here.
the liberals probly would have held here if not for the new boundaries. while the small swings are custom in a liberl versus labor contest the swings involving a nationals candidate may differ. if the Nationals throw everything at this like they did bendigo federally we might see them win it the nationals seats are comfortably safe in a versus labor contest. with the exception of Morwell. however that was a 3 way contest with the liberals so i imagine now there is a sitting member they should be able to retain that with an increased margin and without any serious challengers in Shepparton and Mildura which agains were 3 way contests with a lib and ind as the labor vote was only in single digits but should recover. I imagine the Nationals will contest Bass and maybe even Eureka and Bendigo East as well. they will likely throw in a candidate in Benambra but they wont win that seat.
The coalition will likely use labor’s scrapped regional commonwealth games here. Labor promised the games and likely won votes then backflipped once they got elected.
Jo armstrong Ararat mayor to run for the nats allegedly . The nats brand is increasingly popular in regional victoria so id say an almost certain Nat gain. Martha haylett is popular but her government is not. She has said the levies are unfair but cant vote against them without being kicked from the party, She would if she could . Thats the problem for rural Labor mps same with Queensland 2024 . They seem helpless to advocate for their communities and traditional labor values when Labor caucases are increasingly socially progressive and inner city based
Yea if the nats can make the 2cp I’d say Nat gain but against a Lib based on previous result I’d say slim labor hold
@ up the dragons
Unlike the Queensland provincial seats Ripon has a lot of socially progressive tree changers I think Creswick and Clunes are increasingly like Daylesford and Castlemaine
bendigo and Ballarat are among the few federal seats where the Voice did better than the Republic based on 2022 boundaries
Once Mr Helper retired the boundaries determined who won the seat.
A Nationals run wouldn’t surprise me following the closeness of the Bendigo result at the federal election. There’s a possibility that the Libs and Nats split the vote whilst the Labor vote doesn’t change much. I think it happened in Bass in 2022 – a very marginal seat. The drop in Liberal primary vote equalled the increase in National primary vote and Labor retained.
Well in under preferential voting the vote goes back to the party of choice anyway. Without a sitting liberal member the nats are within their right to contest it. And the nats do sometimes draw votes away fr okm labor.
When the the next redistribution comes around there’s an opportunity to reform West Gippsland which would benefit the nats.
If the Nats get into Ripon, the big question is who does everyone preference? Between the Libs, Nats, SFF, FF, Justice, and Wayne Rigg, that is a lot of real estate on the right. Assuming Louise Staley doesn’t run again would be a wide-open contest. It would be hard to tell who would be the 2CP alternative to Labor before the campaign got underway. I could see the Nats getting in if the Liberal leadership situation is no better than it is today.
Last tome all 3 contested in 2014 the 3cp was 22.49 NAT 35.17 LIB 42.34 LAB. So the nats would need at least a 6.34% swing from Lib to Nat to make the 2cp.
Last Election it was 13.80 SFF 39.54 LIB 46.66 LAB but that’s on different boundaries. The Shooter vote split 54-46 to the libs compared to the Nats vote splitting 69-31 in 2014. The libs votes would probably break higher to the nats if they made the 2cp. In 2018 the 3cp was 10.27 SFF 44.41 LIB 45.32 LAB with the SFF splitting 55-45. Stanley won by 15 votes.
Lethlean was high profile and personable which is why he did so well in Bendigo federally.
Armstrong is hardly a star candidate for the Nats, really just a cookie cutter local councillor which doesn’t mean much in the scheme of things.
I think Lethlean is a well-known bar owner which probably gave him a high profile in the Bendigo area even before he was a Nationals Candidate. This was also the case for the State Seat of Cranbourne for 2010 and 2014 Elections where the Liberal Candidate was Geoff Ablett, a high-profile AFL player which was why Labor only won marginally in 2014 (as it was in 2010) but was reverted back to a Safe Labor Seat once he was off the ballot.
Bendigo West in 2010 is another example with a well known footballer as the Nationals candidate.
Given the history of this seat and it’s small swings outside some major voting issue I don’t think the libs can win here. However the nats would be able to given that it’s not a tradition al 2pp race
@ John
This seat really does not swing you could argue that the Labor party has actually never lost the seat since 1999 the only reason it was Liberal held from 2014-2022 was due to redistribution and it flipped in 2022 only due to redistribution.
yes i did state that. however thats in a traditional 2pp contest as we saw in bendigo at the federal election having a nats candidate can change things up. the nats have only one seat thats vunerable when you remove the independents which is morwell but this time the nats only have to contend with labor they dont have to worrry about the 3 way race with the liberals. and as we saw federally if the nats can spend big here they should be able to win it.
@ John
I odnt even this Morwell is vulnerable to Labor these days even if Labor wants to win 62/88 seats like they did with Bracks in 2002 Narracan and Morwell will not be one of them maybe Croydon and Polwarth will be instead subject to Labor. Labor vote is Morwell is showing Long term decline.
true but you can never take anything for granted