LIB 1.0%
Incumbent MP
David Hodgett, since 2014. Previously member for Kilsyth 2006-2014.
Geography
Outer eastern Melbourne. Croydon covers the suburbs of Croydon, Croydon Hills, Croydon North and Croydon South, and parts of Ringwood, Kilsyth and Mooroolbark. Most of the electorate lies in the City of Maroondah, and a small part lies in Yarra Ranges Shire.
Redistribution
Croydon shifted to the south, losing the remainder of Ringwood North to Warrandyte, while gaining Bayswater North and Kilsyth South from Bayswater, the remainder of Kilsyth from Monbulk and a small area from Ringwood. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 2.1% to 1.0%.
History
Croydon was created in 2014, mostly replacing Kilsyth, which itself replaced Mooroolbark.
Mooroolbark existed from 1992 to 2002, and was held during that time by Liberal MP Lorraine Elliott.
In 2002, Elliott contested the redrawn seat of Kilsyth. The seat was considered relatively safe for the Liberal Party. In an upset result, Labor candidate Dympna Beard won the seat with a massive swing.
In 2006, Beard’s 2.1% margin was overturned by the Liberal Party’s David Hodgett, who won the seat with a margin of 245 votes. In 2010, Hodgett transformed his razor-thin margin into a solid 10.4% margin. He was re-elected as member for Croydon in 2014 and 2018.
- Sophia de Wit (Democratic Labour)
- Harley McDonald-Eckersall (Animal Justice)
- Sorina Grasso (Labor)
- David Hodgett (Liberal)
- Brendan Powell (Greens)
- Dan Nebauer (Family First)
Assessment
Croydon is very marginal.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Hodgett | Liberal | 18,108 | 48.0 | -5.7 | 46.6 |
| Josh Cusack | Labor | 14,307 | 37.9 | +7.1 | 39.4 |
| Caleb O’Flynn | Greens | 3,468 | 9.2 | +0.3 | 8.9 |
| Vinita Costantino | Animal Justice | 1,863 | 4.9 | +4.9 | 4.5 |
| Others | 0.6 | ||||
| Informal | 1,975 | 5.0 | +0.6 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Hodgett | Liberal | 19,671 | 52.1 | -7.2 | 51.0 |
| Josh Cusack | Labor | 18,075 | 47.9 | +7.2 | 49.0 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and south.
The Liberal Party won the seat, but only won one of the four areas on election day, with 53.8% in the north. Labor won around 54-55% in the other three areas.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 46.2 | 5,902 | 13.1 |
| Central | 46.2 | 5,642 | 12.5 |
| South | 45.2 | 4,119 | 9.1 |
| North | 53.8 | 4,068 | 9.0 |
| Pre-poll | 53.6 | 17,449 | 38.7 |
| Other votes | 53.0 | 7,959 | 17.6 |
Election results in Croydon at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Should be Lowan
If you shift a country town voting 60% lib or nat out and
Replace it with a town that votes 55% Labor
All things being equal.that is a 15% swing
Mick, it’s sad that we didn’t win 70 seats, we could’ve tried if we used more resources. My fellow members always joke about the LNP and Greens being “irrelevant” and that “we’re untouchable”. There’s no such thing as a tired government here as the people of Victoria love Dan and Labor! We will win 2026 and forever beyond that. Pesutto won’t touch us, we don’t fear him. I have every right to be arrogant because Victoria will forever be a Labor state! Maybe the Greens might challenge us years from now but they’re just wannabes!
Dan Fan, how come Labor still lost primary votes at this election if you say a majority of state residents still like the party?
I feel the Liberals are weak as an opposition because most voters who were dissatisfied with the incumbent ALP government just scattered their votes to smaller third parties and whilst most did flow back to the Liberal Party/Coalition, others didn’t.
Yoh An, demographics is destiny my friend. They clearly didn’t listen to that hackjob Matthew Guy’s advice and instead put Labor higher up because they still love us and will return in 2026! All the “changer” types are voting for us. Primary vote increases and big swings in South Barwon, Euroa, Polwarth, Geelong, Ballarat etc. Which will soon be happening in all of regional Victoria!
Agree about the demographic change in some inner regional areas (around Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo). But I feel some outer suburban areas are trending the other direction and won’t be as favourable for Labor in future elections.
@ Yoh An,
I dont agree that there is pro-labor demographic trends especially across all of over regional Victoria including Euroa (Labor only does well in Mitchell Shire part) but the rest of the seat is solid Nationals territory and i dont think seats such as Mildura, Lowan etc will trend Labor in the future.
However, i am not sure with the point that outer suburban areas are trending Coalition. Which seats did you have in mind? I agree with Melton but Yan Yean and Sunbury are always competitive seats and have just returned to 2014 levels. In fact Pakenham is actually more Pro-Labor than in 2014. Melton will continue to be a challenge due to service delivery issues.
Nimalan, I didn’t say the pro Labor trend is all over regional Victoria, only confined to the areas closest to the three largest regional centres (Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo). I think it was Dan Fan who said big swings will be expected in all of Regional Victoria.
As for outer suburban areas, I believe Tarneit and Werribee were some state districts that saw swings against Labor just like their overlapping federal seats (Lalor and Gellibrand). But I accept your point (and similar ones raised by others) that this swing only affected the primary vote because the Liberal vote was static and most of the 2PP swing was due to Labor voters shifting to minor right-wing parties and then preferencing the Liberals afterwards.
This could be a one-off due to the pandemic and lockdown effects. However, it is best to see if these results repeat at the next election, because if they do it is probably a sign that these areas are like other outer suburban areas such as Western Sydney and Ipswich that feature declining support for Labor.
@ Yoh an
Sorry I meant to say I agree with you and don’t agree with Dan Fan and the sweeping statement about regional victoria. Apologies again
With respect to outer suburban Melbourne it is my view that it was a protest vote against pandemic especially in the deprived areas such as St Albans as we did not see this trend pre-pandemic while I feel the La Trobe valley is area with a long term trend away from Labor.
Dan Fan, complacency is not the way to win. As much as I would prefer a *moderate sensible ALP government* at all state and federal levels. In a healthy democracy you don’t have 1 party rule all the time.
A bad opposition will mean the government can do whatever it likes and propose unpopular policies without worrying about electoral consequences.
I am a fan of landslides because it creates an interesting election night seeing colours in areas that don’t usually occur.
The Greens will never be opposition. That would only happen if Labor and Liberal teamed up which would either leave Nationals or Greens as opposition.
at this rate the Victorian Liberal party is heading down the road of the Ontario PC party and the Manitoba PC party who (while in government now) they were both in opposition for long periods before their current term of government, 15 and 17 years respectively. I wouldn’t compare them to the SA liberals considering they won the TPP in both 2010 and 2014.
I don’t agree that Victoria is the Massachusetts of Australia. I’d say the ACT is in all fairness.
Daniel T, there’s no such thing as “complacency” and “unpopular policies” under a Vic ALP government. So you’re a fan of landslides? Well, we’re not finished just yet (see 2018 and 2022); we’re going to win at least 70 seats come 2026! I’m certain the Vic LNP is going to implode and it gives us another super easy win.
It’s far more likely that the Greens will be opposition than the Vic LNP ever winning an election again. The only place the Vic Libs are heading is death not government.
I do agree with your last statement, Victoria is still more right-wing than Massachusetts and Greater Melbourne is more right-wing than the Bay Area. MA is an almost total sea of progressive Democrat blue, urban and rural alike. I also think the ACT (as a whole) is more right-wing than the District of Columbia.
David Hodgett will retire at the 2026 election.
This was a missed opperunity in 2022 IMHO but Labor wanted to sandbag many seats they were under threat such as Pakenham, Werribee, Melton and Point Cook. Subject to boundaries Croydon and Polwarth are two seats Labor will target in their next landslide whenever that maybe. It is better to win Croydon than Hawthorn as Croydon is a middle Australia seat.