Gembrook – Victoria 2010

ALP 0.7%

Incumbent MP
 Tammy Lobato, since 2002.

Geography
 Eastern fringe of Melbourne. Gembrook covers eastern parts of Yarra Ranges Shire, northern parts of Cardinia Shire and and northeastern parts of the City of Casey. Gembrook covers the suburbs of Cockatoo, Emerald, Gembrook, Narre Warren East, Warburton as well as parts of Belgrave and Berwick. Gembrook generally covers parts of the Upper Yarra and the Dandenongs.

History
Gembrook was created at the 2002 election, when the existing seats of Berwick and Pakenham were abolished. Former Liberal deputy leader Maclellan was challenged by Shadow Treasurer Robert Dean for preselection after both their seats were abolished.

Dean won preselection for Gembrook, but during the 2002 election campaign it was revealed that he had failed to keep his details on the electoral roll, and was thus unable to stand. He was forced to withdrawal, and Gembrook was won at the 2002 election by the ALP’s Tammy Lobato. She won reelection in 2006 by only 498 votes.

Candidates

  • Rebecca Filliponi (Family First)
  • Brad Battin (Liberal)
  • Alex Krstic (Country Alliance)
  • Hayden Ostrom Brown (Independent)
  • Peter McConachy (Nationals)
  • Larry Norman (Democratic Labor Party)
  • Brent Hall (Greens)
  • Robert Belcher (Independent)
  • Tammy Lobato (Labor)
  • Frank Dean (Independent)

Political situation
Gembrook is a very marginal seat that has traditionally voted Liberal. It is a top target for the Liberals in 2010.

2006 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Simon Wildes LIB 13,994 40.16 -1.36
Tammy Lobato ALP 13,666 39.22 -4.72
Gordon Watson GRN 3,838 11.02 -1.76
Peter McConachy NAT 1,375 3.95 +3.95
Peter Gebbing FF 1,309 3.76 +3.76
Robyn Allcock PP 388 1.11 +1.11
Frank Dean IND 272 0.78 -0.98

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tammy Lobato ALP 17,670 50.71 -0.87
Simon Wildes LIB 17,172 49.29 +0.87

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Gembrook have been divided into three areas: the “West” area covers those booths in Casey LGA and the southwestern corner of Yarra Ranges LGA. The much larger eastern part of Yarra Ranges LGA is another area, as is those areas in Cardinia LGA.

The ALP won a slim 51.5% margin in Cardinia, and a larger 55.8% margin in Yarra Ranges. The Liberal Party won a 52.4% margin in the west of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Gembrook at the 2006 state election. Yarra Ranges in orange, Cardinia in yellow, West in blue.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Cardinia 10.27 51.47 9,848 28.23
West 11.47 47.60 9,355 26.82
Yarra Ranges 11.43 55.76 7,460 21.39
Other votes 11.02 48.30 8,220 23.56
Two-party-preferred votes in Gembrook at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Gembrook at the 2006 state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Every redistribution creates a seat like Gembrook, made up of all the bits-and-pieces that they couldn’t fit into other seats. It stretches from the outer south-eastern suburb of Berwick right across the eastern Dandenongs and into the Upper Yarra Valley. A real mixed bag of McMansion-ites, farmers, tree changers and rural blue-collar workers.

    Strong growth in the suburban areas in the south is probably helping the Liberals, and there’s no excuses for them not winning this seat in 2010. You could argue there was no excuse for them not winning it in 2006.

  2. I imagine those tree-changers would be responsible for those small >20% booths for the Greens dotted around the place? That one in the north-east is especially weird… 21%, when everything around is between 8% and 13%.

  4. The ones in the northern part of ‘West’ are the Belgrave and Tecoma booths in the lower reaches of the Dandenongs, which has always had a strong Green presence.

    Not sure what the one in the north-east is…Warburton? Woods Point?

  5. Word on the grapevine is that the Nationals will run here again on the urban fringe to deliver preferences to the Liberals.

  6. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Rebecca Filliponi – Family First
    Brad Battin – Liberal
    Alex Krstic – Country Alliance
    Hayden Ostrom-Brown –
    Peter McConachy – Nationals
    Larry Norman – DLP
    Brent Hall – Greens
    Robert Belcher –
    Tammy Lobato – Labor
    Frank Dean –

  7. That booth in question definitely appears to be Warburton.

    Extra info on the other candidates here. Ostrom-Brown is a Democrat (unregistered), Belcher is a farmer, economist, and chair of Sustainable Agricultural Communities Australia. Dean is a repeat candidate in this district, but i didn’t immediately find anything else about him.

Comments are closed.