Eastern Victoria – Victoria 2010

Incumbent MLCs

  • Philip Davis (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for Gippsland 1992-2006.
  • Peter Hall (NAT), since 2006. Previously MLC for Gippsland 1988-2006.
  • Edward O’Donohue (LIB), since 2006.
  • Johan Scheffer (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Monash 2002-2006.
  • Matt Viney (ALP), since 2006. Previously Member for Frankston East 1999-2002, MLC for Chelsea 2002-2006.

Geography
Eastern Victoria region covers the electoral districts of Bass, Evelyn, Gembrook, Gippsland East, Gippsland South, Hastings, Monbulk, Mornington, Morwell, Narracan and Nepean. The region covers parts of the southeastern fringe of Melbourne and the Gippsland region.

Six seats are held by the Liberal Party, two seats are held by the Labor Party, two seats are held by the Nationals, and one seat is held by independent MP Craig Ingram.

The ALP seat of Gembrook is the second-most marginal Labor seat in the state, while Monbulk is safer. The Liberal seats of Evelyn, Hastings, Narracan and Bass  are all marginal, as is the Nationals seat of Morwell. The Nationals seat of Gippsland South, and the Liberal seats of Mornington and Nepean.

2006 result

GroupVotes%Quota
Liberal148,73439.692.3814
Labor132,33435.312.1188
The Greens34,7459.270.5563
The Nationals32,6238.710.5223
Family First16,8954.510.2705
People Power3,7090.990.0594
Country Alliance2,3340.620.0374
Christian Democratic Party1,4700.390.0235
Others1,8900.500.0303

The ALP and Liberal Party both polled over two quotas, although the Liberal Party had a larger surplus. The Greens and Nationals both polled just over half a quota, with Family First polling around a quarter of a quota.

After most of the count, the race came down to the candidates for the Greens, Nationals, Family First and Liberals.

  • Delacretaz (GRN) – 0.6537 quotas
  • Hall (NAT) – 0.5582
  • Eastman (FF) – 0.4080
  • Manson (LIB) – 0.3533

Liberal preferences flowed almost entirely to the Nationals, and then Family First preferences put the Nationals over the line, producing this final figure:

  • Hall (NAT) – 1.1446
  • Delacretaz (GRN) – 0.6571

The final margin equated to 8.13% of the total vote in Eastern Victoria region.

Candidates
It’s unclear who is running for the major parties. The Greens are running Samantha Dunn
. Sitting Nationals MLC Peter Hall is running second on a joint Coalition ticket.

Political situation
The two Liberal seats and the first Labor seat are all very safe. The final contest would likely come down to the seat currently held by the Nationals, although there would be a slim chance of the second Labor seat being vulnerable.

The margin between the Nationals candidate and the Greens candidate in 2006 was 8.13%. Most votes at the 2006 election was held by the ALP, Liberal Party, Greens, Nationals and Family First, and you can divide those votes into a left block and right block.

A swing of approximately 4% from the right to the left would put the Nationals’ seat in danger to the Greens. In the current political context, such a swing seems unlikely.

On the other hand, the margin between the second Labor candidate and the Greens is approximately 9.4%. A swing of 4.7% from Labor to the Greens (or less if the ALP also loses votes to the Liberal Party) could see the ALP lose its second seat.

2 COMMENTS

  1. The Nationals’ Peter Hall will be #2 on the Coalition ticket, so if a big swing to the left is on it would be the Liberal in 3rd who is endangered.

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