LNP 3.9%
Incumbent MP
Ros Bates, since 2009.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Mudgeeraba covers the Gold Coast suburbs of Merrimac, Worongary, Mudgeeraba, Reedy Creek, the Robina Town Centre, and parts of Carrara. Mudgeeraba covers southern parts of the Gold Coast hinterland.
History
The seat of Mudgeeraba was first created at the 2001 election. The seat was held by the ALP from 2001 to 2009, and has been held by the Liberal National Party since 2009.
Dianne Reilly won the seat for the ALP in 2001. She was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but lost to the LNP’s Ros Bates in 2009.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Ros Bates is running for re-election. The ALP is running Aaron Santelises.
- Barrie Nicholson (Family First)
- Kevin Swan (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Sally Spain (Greens)
- Aaron Santelises (Labor)
- Ros Bates (Liberal National)
Political situation
Mudgeeraba is a marginal LNP seat, but should be safely retained in 2012.
2009 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | LNP | 11,724 | 46.2 | +4.6 |
| Dianne Reilly | ALP | 9,850 | 38.8 | -6.6 |
| Julian Woolford | GRN | 1,786 | 7.0 | -0.6 |
| Tom Hardin | DSQ | 1,037 | 4.1 | +4.1 |
| James Tayler | FF | 969 | 3.8 | -1.5 |
2009 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ros Bates | LNP | 12,717 | 53.9 | +6.6 |
| Dianne Reilly | ALP | 10,868 | 46.1 | -6.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Mudgeeraba have been divided into three areas. Most booths lie at the eastern end of the seat, and these have been divided into East and North, with a majority of votes cast in the East. There are two small booths at the western end of the seat which have been grouped together.
The LNP outpolled the ALP in all three areas, by margins between 6% and 8%.
| Voter group | LNP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 45.6 | 39.2 | 6.9 | 13,591 | 53.6 |
| North | 46.9 | 39.1 | 6.0 | 5,646 | 22.3 |
| West | 42.1 | 35.9 | 19.8 | 323 | 1.3 |
| Other votes | 47.2 | 38.0 | 7.8 | 5,806 | 22.9 |
My prediction: LNP retain
Prediction: Ros Bates will win by a country mile.
LNP easy retain.
very ignorant fact finding. Its not Kevins Australian Party, its The Australian Party. Also the Greens, ALP and LNP get % slots, but not the KAP, which has garnered alot of public support.
Not very fair is it?
The typo will be fixed.
However I’m not sure how you expect me to report what vote the KAP got at the 2009 election when they didn’t exist.