9:21 – Labor did gain substantial primary vote swings on the pre-poll in Kiama and Bomaderry, of about 5-7%, and that has pushed up their swing. They are now on a swing of about 3% on primary votes.
9:15 – The primary votes have now been reported from Kiama and Bomaderry, and we are not expecting any more primary votes tonight. Labor is on 37.5%, the Liberal Party is on 26.2%, and Kate Dezarnaulds is on 10.7%. We are now waiting for 2CP votes from Bomaderry, the three main pre-poll centres and the first postal vote batch.
8:56 – The pre-poll booth from Albion Park has reported primary votes. Labor has gained a 0.6% swing.
8:55 – This map shows the 2CP percentage and the 2CP swing in Kiama. For swing, I have compared the Liberal 2PP this year to the 2CP for Gareth Ward in 2023. It is missing Bomaderry, which is yet to report 2CP figures.
Labor largely polled 60% or above across the Kiama and Shellharbour council areas, except for the southernmost Gerroa booth, where they polled 57%. The ALP generally polled in the low 50s across the northern end of the Shoalhaven, but polled an amazing 70% in Kangaroo Valley. The Liberals won the two small southernmost booths in Falls Creek and Nowra Hill.
In terms of swing, Labor tended to get swings in the double digits, but gained noticeably less ground in the Nowra area.
8:30 – 2CP has been reported from Berry (good donuts) and Illaroo Road. Labor won 51.8% and 53.2% respectively in those two booths. We’re waiting for Bomaderry, and Centenary Hall 2CP, and we have no pre-poll votes yet.
8:27 – Albion Park High has reported the preference count. Labor is on 70.8%, and the projected final 2CP is climbing closer to 60%. We have also had about 2400 postal votes reporting as primary votes. This is the first of three progressive postal counts, so there will be more to come.
8:17 – A key part of this story is optional preferential voting. Voters aren’t required to number every box, and exhaustion rates are very high. On these numbers, if we were using compulsory preferential voting, there would be some speculation about whether Dezarnaulds could overtake the Liberal candidate and be competitive for the win. But it can’t be done under OPV.
8:13 – We’re now up to 17 2CP booths. We’re just missing Albion Park High, Berry, Centenary Hall, Illaroo Road, and we don’t have any results yet from Bomaderry.
8:09 – Of the fifteen booths where 2CP has been reported, the Liberals have won just two – Nowra Hill and Falls Creek, both at the southern edge of the electorate. But there are three booths where exhaust has outpolled the Liberal.
8:04 – The pace has slowed down, with 21/22 ordinary booths reporting primary votes, and twelve booths reporting 2CP votes.
8:02 – In the eleven booths where 2CP figures have reported, the flow of preferences from non-major candidates is:
- Exhaust – 61.4%
- Labor – 27.8%
- Liberal – 10.8%
7:56 – There are 22 ordinary election day booths and twenty of them have reported primary votes. We’re only missing Bomaderry Public and Centenary Hall in Albion Park. Not much has changed.
7:53 – Labor has had a few big 2CP swings. In addition to Werri Beach, they’re up 23% in Kangaroo Valley. This means they are now projected to reach 59%.
7:48 – Labor has gained a 15.6% 2CP swing at Werri Beach Hall, with 61.5%. Good fish and chips near there.
7:45 – Labor has won the Kiama by-election. While their primary vote is likely to remain steady, their opponents’ votes are much more scattered, with very high rates of exhaustion, and Labor will have a two-party-preferred vote in the mid-50s.
7:43 – With seventeen booths reporting primary votes, the leading candidates are:
- McInerney (ALP) – 35.5% (projected to be 34.5%)
- Copley (LIB) – 24.1% (25.2%)
- Dezarnaulds (IND) – 12.2%
- Gray (GRN) – 9.8% (7.4%)
- Nelson (SFF) – 6.0%
- Fuggle (LGC) – 5.5%
7:39 – The 2CP swing in Minnamurra and Albion Park Rail was a bit smaller than in Kiama and Gerroa, and now my model has Labor winning 55.8% after preferences. Still, it’s very hard to see them losing.
We now have 15 booths reporting primary votes. At this point, for the four booths reporting 2CP figures, 63.2% of preferences are exhausting. It’s very hard to catch up with such a high exhaust rate. But Labor is getting 26% of those preferences, and the Liberal Party is getting 10%.
7:31 – We now have a second 2PP booth, along with 10 primary vote booths. There was a 10% swing to Labor in Kiama High (comparing 2CP against Ward in 2023). More than half of all preferences are exhausting from those two booths.
7:24 – The first 2PP figures are from Gerroa, a town I know very well. Labor polled 56.6% there, which is 8% better than they did in 2023 against Gareth Ward on the 2CP.
7:21 – A number of other booths have come in and it’s looking very similar.
7:17 – We have results in Falls Creek and Kangaroo Valley, and the Labor vote is now just above the 2023 primary vote. But the Liberals are on just 24%, projected to grow to 26%. Kate Dezarnaulds is on 12.5%, and the Greens are on 10%.
7:11 – The Greens vote so far is down by 4.7%. While they’re currently on 9.3%, that includes some good booths in Kiama and Gerroa, and my model projects that will drop to 6.4%.
7:08 – While the Liberal vote is up 15%, the Ward vote so far is down 32.7%, so more than half of his vote is going to someone else.
7:07 – Labor is on 42.6% and the Liberal Party is on 25.6%. My projection expects that gap to shrink to 37-27. Dezarnaulds is now ahead of the Greens.
7:05 – Another Labor swing of 4.3% in Gerroa and 2.1% in Minnamurra.
6:58 – The first booth to report is Kiama High. Labor is on 39%, the Liberal Party is on 21%, and the Greens on 13%. Kate Dezarnaulds is on 11.7%. That is a 4.3% swing to Labor, but more importantly shows that the non-Labor vote is scattered. Labor looking good so far.
6:54 – No results yet. I’ve got a spreadsheet I’ll be using to track the results tonight which I’ve shared with donors on my Discord – if you’re eligible but you’re not there, maybe now is a good time to join?
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Kiama by-election. This state seat is on the south coast of New South Wales, and was vacated by Gareth Ward shortly before he was expected to be expelled from the Legislative Assembly after his conviction and expected sentencing.
Results should start to come in before 7pm tonight. I’ll be live-blogging here. In the meantime, you can read my guide to the by-election here.
Kiama High has reported, Labor on about 39% with the Liberals on 21%. Kate Dezarnaulds and Greens sitting in the low teens.
First results in. Kiama High. Mcinerney with 39 percent primary. Not sure how that compares to last election. However,Libs on 20 percent. If this repeats, unless there’s an overwhelming flow to Liberals then surely it’s a Labor win
Liberal PV at the moment across 3 booths (Kiama High, Minnamurra Public, Gerroa NC) is around 26%, Labor’s is 43%.
I’d say Labor should comfortably win.
SFF polling 10% at Nowra Public! Liberals do seem to be doing good here, especially as this is home turf for Serena Copley.
Legalise Cannabis doing well at Albion Park Rail and Nowra…Katelin in front on primaries in every booth bar one at the moment. I can only see a Labor win here.
2PP at Gerroa was close to 57% for Labor. Very similar to federal election results.
Looks like Labor will win, but I won’t be paying too much attention as there’s footy and soccer on and it’s only a state by-election.
Thanks Ben, great commentary.
Very large swing against Labor in the ttp which is interesting.
The 2pp appears to be 60/40 labors way
2PP swing basically meaningless given the last election was Labor v Ward and a Liberal who didnt campaign.
The 2pp where Mr Ward won was not reliable as a large number of votes exhausted.
Falls Creek and Nowra Hill are the only Liberal booths at the moment. Albion Park has reverted to Labor despite being Liberal as recently as 2019 (not recent anymore but still).
It probably would be closer if not for the high exhaustion rate
This seems to complete a clean sweep for Labor from Kiama to Monaro. I would suggest the 2011 coalition victors in the longer term in Kiama and Monaro on a longer term basis harmed the the coalition
With a 11% gap and very high exhaustion rate it would be impossible to make up the gap. Thus opv became a defacto fpp system.
I get left vote in Kiama including half the teal vote as approx 63%
Right vote is 37%
Defacto first past the post
My post about the “sweep” should
Delete the first “in the longer term”