Federal redistributions finalised

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The Australian Electoral Commission this afternoon published the maps and data for the final redistribution of Western Australia’s federal electoral boundaries. This follows the same publication for the Victorian redistribution last Monday.

The actual announcements for these redistributions were made previously, but we did not have maps or data until now, which has made it impossible for me to calculate margins or to publish maps (although I did make an attempt in the case of WA).

In this post I will publish my estimates of margin and primary vote for the larger parties, as well as maps showing the old and new boundaries for both states.

It will take me some time before I update the maps on my maps page, and then I will dive into publishing guides to the 54 federal seats in these two states.

I won’t be going into a lot of depth explaining the changes in this post – there’s a lot on.

First up, the margins:

2:11pm – And here are the estimated margins.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Aston LIB 10.1% LIB 10.1%
Ballarat ALP 11% ALP 10.3%
Bendigo ALP 9.0% ALP 8.9%
Bruce ALP 14.2% ALP 7.3%
Calwell ALP 18.8% ALP 19.6%
Casey LIB 4.6% LIB 4.6%
Chisholm LIB 0.6% LIB 0.5%
Cooper ALP vs GRN 14.6% ALP vs GRN 14.8%
Corangamite ALP 1.1% ALP 1.0%
Corio ALP 10.3% ALP 10.3%
Deakin LIB 4.8% LIB 4.7%
Dunkley ALP 2.7% ALP 2.7%
Flinders LIB 5.6% LIB 5.6%
Fraser ALP 14.2% ALP 18.1%
Gellibrand ALP 14.8% ALP 13.0%
Gippsland NAT 16.7% NAT 16.7%
Goldstein LIB 7.8% LIB 7.8%
Gorton ALP 15.4% ALP 14.3%
Hawke New seat ALP 10.2%
Higgins LIB 3.9% LIB 3.7%
Holt ALP 8.7% ALP 8.9%
Hotham ALP 5.9% ALP 11.2%
Indi IND vs LIB 1.4% IND 1.4%
Isaacs ALP 6.4% ALP 6.4%
Jagajaga ALP 6.6% ALP 5.9%
Kooyong LIB vs GRN 5.7% LIB vs GRN 5.5%
La Trobe LIB 4.5% LIB 5.4%
Lalor ALP 12.4% ALP 12.4%
Macnamara ALP 6.2% ALP 6.1%
Mallee NAT 16.2% NAT 15.7%
Maribyrnong ALP 11.2% ALP 10.3%
McEwen ALP 5.0% ALP 5.3%
Melbourne GRN vs LIB 21.8% GRN vs LIB 21.8%
Menzies LIB 7.5% LIB 7%
Monash LIB 7.4% LIB 6.9%
Nicholls NAT 20.0% NAT 20.0%
Scullin ALP 21.7% ALP 21.7%
Wannon LIB 10.4% LIB 10.2%
Wills ALP vs GRN 8.2% ALP vs GRN 8.5%
Brand ALP 6.7% ALP 6.7%
Burt ALP 5.0% ALP 5.5%
Canning LIB 11.6% LIB 11.6%
Cowan ALP 0.8% ALP 0.9%
Curtin LIB 14.3% LIB 13.9%
Durack LIB 14.8% LIB 13.5%
Forrest LIB 14.6% LIB 14.6%
Fremantle ALP 6.9% ALP 6.9%
Hasluck LIB 5.4% LIB 5.9%
Moore LIB 11.7% LIB 11.6%
O’Connor LIB 14.5% LIB 15.4%
Perth ALP 4.9% ALP 3.2%
Pearce LIB 7.5% LIB 5.2%
Stirling LIB 5.6% Abolished seat
Swan LIB 2.7% LIB 3.2%
Tangney LIB 11.5% LIB 9.5%

Next up, estimates of the two-party-preferred vote and the primary vote for the big parties. Liberal and Nationals votes have been combined.

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN prim
Aston39.960.129.854.78.9
Ballarat60.339.746.931.69.0
Bendigo58.941.243.631.810.9
Bruce57.342.748.135.77.6
Calwell69.630.454.424.36.7
Casey45.454.628.645.211.0
Chisholm49.550.536.344.010.6
Cooper76.223.846.919.620.9
Corangamite51.049.035.842.48.7
Corio60.339.747.633.913.1
Deakin45.354.732.347.89.3
Dunkley52.747.338.539.98.4
Flinders44.455.624.746.76.8
Fraser68.131.950.823.913.9
Gellibrand63.037.049.130.813.9
Gippsland33.366.723.254.06.0
Goldstein42.257.828.352.714.0
Gorton64.335.751.528.07.4
Hawke60.239.844.129.47.4
Higgins46.353.725.247.622.9
Holt59.041.151.035.67.1
Hotham61.238.850.833.38.9
Indi37.362.712.144.54.2
Isaacs56.443.644.835.211.2
Jagajaga55.944.140.939.214.4
Kooyong43.656.417.549.221.1
La Trobe44.655.533.346.07.6
Lalor62.437.651.630.18.0
Macnamara56.143.931.837.524.0
Mallee34.365.716.546.73.7
Maribyrnong60.339.744.734.815.7
McEwen55.344.739.835.09.5
Melbourne67.832.221.121.248.1
Menzies43.057.030.550.910.1
Monash43.156.929.946.07.2
Nicholls30.070.019.451.34.2
Scullin71.728.360.422.36.7
Wannon39.860.225.951.16.8
Wills75.724.344.318.126.3
Brand56.743.340.3829.8411.1
Burt55.544.541.1332.399.6
Canning38.561.627.5549.127.5
Cowan50.949.137.8440.0211.1
Curtin36.164.018.5854.0115.3
Durack36.563.522.752.288.0
Forrest35.464.621.1552.4812.8
Fremantle56.943.138.0234.9716.0
Hasluck44.155.930.344.1610.8
Moore38.461.624.7451.5212.1
O’Connor34.665.420.6155.598.2
Pearce44.855.231.7443.779.7
Perth53.246.833.638.9718.4
Swan46.853.232.9244.7312.0
Tangney40.559.527.9351.3410.9

Finally, this map shows the 2016-19 and 2022 boundaries for Western Australia:

And this map shows the 2019 and 2022 boundaries for Victoria:

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21 COMMENTS

  1. The redistribution in Pearce have significantly weakened it for LNP, will be an interesting seat to watch. I’m curious to know if it was on those boundaries for 2016 if the Labor party would’ve gained it?

  2. @Ben Raue
    A bit of a nitpick, but the WA entries in the table of margins aren’t alphabetised.

  3. In reply to Bob, without doing the figures most unlikely. The Liberal vote in the former Cowan boxes in 2016 (with Luke Simpkins as the incumbent) were much the same as in 2019.

  4. It is interesting that the Avon (Northam, Toodyay, and York) region is in Durack. It would have made more sense that this was in O’Connor as better communities of interest.

  5. based on the seat of gorton now being more inner city compared to the old the libs will have a better chance than before and the new seat of hawke should be a better seat for labour but quite a few issues will make it a intrestering seat to watch

  6. Bob: I doubt it. The part of Cowan that went to Pearce (north of Hepburn Ave) was the more Liberal half, and Cowan was pretty close to 50-50 in 2016, so those would’ve been Liberal booths. Further north (in the continuing Pearce), there’d be some Labor booths around Clarkson, but the rest would be at best 50-50. Maybe more marginal, but still a Lib seat.

    James: when you have two divisions both larger than NSW, the AEC probably give up on “community of interest”. Having the wheatbelt split between two divisions instead of three is as close as you can get, and you have to draw the boundary somewhere. It’s weird having York and Beverley in different divisions, but it was equally weird when Northam and Meckering were. The old layout of Kalgoorlie (remote) and O’Connor (wheatbelt) made more sense, but it became impossible to draw without cutting O’Connor in half.

  7. raymond the concept of “oh gorton is more inner-city therefore the libs will have a better chance” is actually really contradictory. We are talking about Melbourne’s inner west, Labor-Green heartland, and inevitably it’ll be like that on 2CP because the Liberals will run dead here for an eternity.

  8. Raymond: Gorton gained Sydenham and Keilor. If that’s inner-city Melbourne, I’d hate to see what you call the outer suburbs.

    Were you thinking of Fraser? That’s moved east as well, and picked up Footscray from Gellibrand / Maribyrnong (a few good Green booths). Still nothing but a safe Labor seat.

  9. I’m honestly surprised that Fraser doesn’t have a stronger Green vote on those boundaries. It’s pretty much all the ‘best’ Green areas in the inner west united in the seat now.

  10. The Greens did pretty badly in their good areas (excluding Melbourne) because of the Alex Bhathal thing I think. They lost a ton of paying members and for the Greens less paying members means less campaign resources and in the end, less votes.

  11. 2018-19 was a low point for the Victorian Greens and I think Janet Rice only survived because the Greens spent a lot of resources on target seats in Melbourne (at the expense of actual winnable seats Brisbane and Griffith).

    However looking at last years council elections I think a comeback is possible all over Victoria. Greens won multiple single member council wards even in areas like Donvale and Keysborough.

    They also won 3 in Darebin. With Celeste Liddle and Lidia Thorpe as lead senate candidate, as well as Labor moving right, Liberal preferences a possibility, and Preston MP Robin Scott being a scandalised dud, Ged Kearney isn’t safe. Greens have good prospects in Wills too. I can see it being quite plausible for Greens to pick up state ALP voters with Albo at the helm.

    On the other hand I can see the seats with a high Liberal vote swinging to ALP, not Greens, so Macnamara and Higgins may be tough.

    Greens could win Fraser with someone like Huong Truong, or if Janet Rice wanted to jump to the lower house (and likely retire), but they’d need to resource a winnable seat campaign and get Liberal preferences. The incumbent is a Labor right nobody with a CV that looks more like a Liberal’s, and a history at the now infamous City of Casey, which will help any Green challenge. On the other hand Gellibrand and Maribyrnong are lost causes – the swing against Greens in Ascot Vale as soon as they were distributed out of Melbourne was brutal.

    Speaking of Casey, the Greens used to pull big numbers there and will need to do so again to give Labor a hope of winning. Samantha Dunn quitting was a huge loss

  12. What exactly did Alex supposed do that constituted branch stacking? Somyurek was literally paying people, is that was she did? At any rate, you’d think that when you win a preselection by like 200 votes it’s probably fair to say that whoever opposed you just never had much support in the first place.

  13. based on the fact i was helping a independent who was more like a liberal than a labor but had more green about him and having a very small campaign period and making up 12% and most of that was in the zone of caroline springs burnside taylor area i can see the swing closer to town than it was in melton rockbank region so i see i swing coming since melton is now out of gorton which was most of brendons base i see a possible change here

  14. i think you analysis is mostly right but the closer you get to melbourne town the numbers are starting to push more to the greens and the traditionally the west side was more labour but those days are shifting on the inner fringe but the inner east and north are turning blue green but inner south is a black zone of red,green,blue and so close it is hard to judge

  15. bop……I think Collie should be in forrest and Durack becomes similar to The Old Kalgoorlie…… including Kalgoorlie of course. The remainder would be Albany. the Avon Valley and any thing left over…. but this is unlikely to happen

  16. Compared to Melton, lots of things are more inner. You have to catch VLine to get there!

    Mick: the problem with drawing seats in this part of WA is that there’s a few relatively large centres (Albany, Kalgoorlie, Geraldton) that can’t be split, surrounded by a whole lot of wheatbelt. The old O’Connor had to be anchored on Albany and Geraldton for that reason, and it was the only seat Kalgoorlie bordered, so every redist time Kalgoorlie pinched another couple of random wheatbelt shires. It ended up almost in two disconnected halves, which is why the current arrangement happened.

    Collie gets kicked around all over the place at state redistributions. The version of the seat the Nats won in the 90’s included Boddington and Darkan; then there was Collie-Wellington, with Harvey and Waroona; now there’s Collie-Preston, with Donnybrook and some outer suburbs of Bunbury. It’s a reasonably big town a long way from anywhere else, so it’s difficult to deal with. Broken Hill in NSW probably has similar issues.

  17. I think that the ALP is solely relying on a potential Victoria-wide swing to win Chisholm since their parachuted union official candidate obviously isn’t exactly the best candidate they could find…

  18. As for Casey, Tony Smith’s departure will definitely hurt the Liberals but I doubt it would be enough to flip the seat unless they shoot themselves in the foot with their candidate choice like the ALP in Chisholm.

  19. Bird of Paradox, your comments about WA country seats are most perceptive. It is fairer and better that the immense spaces of WA are divided fairly evenly between two seats than being confined in one, the former Kalgoorlie. Durack is in fact a restoration of Dampier that existed 1913-22 and the inclusion of its northern section with Kalgoorlie 1922-2010 was perhaps a retrograde step.

    There is no compelling reason for Collie to be included in Forrest, it is not part of the core of that division (Busselton and Greater Bunbury). Collie in 1990-2001 was separated from Forrest, placed first in Brand, then O’Connor to which it returned in 2016. In the State Parliament during 1965-89 when the Legislative Council was elected on a 2-member Province system, the Legislative Assembly seat of Collie was never bracketed with Bunbury but with rural seats to its north, east and south.

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