The redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries concluded last Friday, and I’ve now finished my map of the electorates for download. You can download the map to use in Google Earth here.
I’ve also updated my calculations of the margins in each seat, which are at the end of this post. I estimate that there are 47 Labor seats, 44 LNP seats, as well as one KAP seat and one independent seat. On my first draft, I estimated 48 Labor seats and 43 LNP seats – unfortunately I appear to have made an error calculating the margin in Pumicestone, which resulted in me predicting it was a very marginal Labor seat – I now think it’s a marginal LNP seat, despite no change in boundaries. I feel confident this is the right result, although it doesn’t make much difference when the seat is as marginal as Pumicestone is.
As part of my calculations I’ve assigned every polling place to a new seat, and split up the special votes between the new seats, and this will be used as the basis for my guide to the Queensland election, due later this year.
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Mansfield | ALP vs LNP 50.6% | Whitsunday | LNP vs ALP 50.7% |
| Bundaberg | ALP vs LNP 50.8% | Hill | LNP vs KAP 50.8% |
| Maryborough | ALP vs LNP 51% | Pumicestone | LNP vs ALP 50.8% |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP vs LNP 51.1% | Glass House | LNP vs ALP 51.4% |
| Springwood | ALP vs LNP 51.5% | Toowoomba North | LNP vs ALP 51.6% |
| Mundingburra | ALP vs LNP 51.6% | Redlands | LNP vs ALP 51.8% |
| Cooper | ALP vs LNP 53% | Aspley | LNP vs ALP 52.5% |
| Barron River | ALP vs LNP 53.3% | Bonney | LNP vs ALP 52.7% |
| McConnel | ALP vs LNP 53.5% | Everton | LNP vs ALP 52.7% |
| Keppel | ALP vs LNP 53.9% | Gaven | LNP vs ALP 52.8% |
| Mirani | ALP vs LNP 54.1% | Maiwar | LNP vs ALP 52.8% |
| Ferny Grove | ALP vs LNP 54.4% | Chatsworth | LNP vs ALP 53.5% |
| MacAlister | ALP vs LNP 54.9% | Hinchinbrook | LNP vs ALP 53.7% |
| Pine Rivers | ALP vs LNP 55.1% | Caloundra | LNP vs ALP 54.7% |
| Greenslopes | ALP vs LNP 55.3% | Theodore | LNP vs ALP 55.2% |
| Townsville | ALP vs LNP 55.6% | Lockyer | LNP vs ON 55.2% |
| Stretton | ALP vs LNP 55.7% | Burdekin | LNP vs ALP 55.4% |
| Thuringowa | ALP vs LNP 56.1% | Burleigh | LNP vs ALP 55.6% |
| Bulimba | ALP vs LNP 56.1% | Clayfield | LNP vs ALP 55.7% |
| Capalaba | ALP vs LNP 56.2% | Currumbin | LNP vs ALP 55.7% |
| Logan | ALP vs LNP 56.3% | Oodgeroo | LNP vs ALP 56.1% |
| Murrumba | ALP vs LNP 56.5% | Coomera | LNP vs ALP 56.1% |
| Miller | ALP vs LNP 56.7% | Hervey Bay | LNP vs ALP 56.6% |
| Cook | ALP vs LNP 56.8% | Noosa | LNP vs GRN 57.3% |
| Cairns | ALP vs LNP 57.4% | Burnett | LNP vs ALP 58.1% |
| Kurwongbah | ALP vs LNP 57.5% | Gympie | LNP vs ALP 58.1% |
| Redcliffe | ALP vs LNP 57.6% | Moggill | LNP vs ALP 58.2% |
| Algester | ALP vs LNP 57.7% | Kawana | LNP vs ALP 59% |
| Toohey | ALP vs LNP 57.8% | Toowoomba South | LNP vs ALP 59.1% |
| Bancroft | ALP vs LNP 57.9% | Southport | LNP vs ALP 59.9% |
| Nudgee | ALP vs LNP 58.6% | Mudgeeraba | LNP vs ALP 59.9% |
| Stafford | ALP vs LNP 58.7% | Maroochydore | LNP vs ALP 60.5% |
| Ipswich West | ALP vs LNP 59% | Mermaid Beach | LNP vs ALP 61% |
| Jordan | ALP vs LNP 59.6% | Gregory | LNP vs ALP 61.6% |
| Lytton | ALP vs LNP 59.7% | Scenic Rim | LNP vs ALP 61.7% |
| Mackay | ALP vs LNP 59.7% | Buderim | LNP vs ALP 61.9% |
| Sandgate | ALP vs LNP 59.8% | Callide | LNP vs PUP 62.2% |
| Morayfield | ALP vs LNP 61.5% | Broadwater | LNP vs ALP 62.8% |
| Gladstone | ALP vs IND 62.6% | Warrego | LNP vs ALP 65% |
| Mulgrave | ALP vs LNP 62.8% | Condamine | LNP vs ALP 66.8% |
| South Brisbane | ALP vs LNP 63.5% | Nanango | LNP vs ALP 67.9% |
| Rockhampton | ALP vs LNP 63.9% | Southern Downs | LNP vs ALP 69.2% |
| Waterford | ALP vs LNP 64.4% | Surfers Paradise | LNP vs ALP 69.6% |
| Ipswich | ALP vs LNP 64.7% | Ninderry | LNP vs ALP 71.4% |
| Inala | ALP vs LNP 69.7% | ||
| Woodridge | ALP vs LNP 74.1% | Nicklin | IND vs LNP 59% |
| Bundamba | ALP vs LNP 74.5% | Traeger | KAP vs LNP 65.8% |
Great work Ben. A big job and your efforts will be of use to a lot of people. Thank you.
It’s a shame that, for they most part, they commission has stuck stubbornly with the needless renaming. There was simply no need to toss away perfectly good names like Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, Cleveland, Sunnybank and Yeerongpilly.
The commission’s justification is very dubious.
That there will be no electorate named after the state capital is particularly disappointing, given the high number of submissions opposing the name change. There’s no reason why the name ‘McConnel’ could have been applied to a neighbouring electorate like Clayfield, for example.
And I would have thought naming an electorate after a landmark – often a single point on the map – would actually increase the chances of it being moved out of an electorate in subsequent redistributions. ‘Ninderry’ and ‘Toohey’ may be very short-lived electorates!
One final name-related observation: I note the name ‘Waterford’ was retained, even though that suburb is now split between the electorates of ‘Waterford’ and ‘Macalister’.
It is amazing how when there has been a distribution it is always the minor party sitting MP’s seats that are abolished by redistributions under both ALP and Coalition governments.
Can I re-inforce comment by Jaquix. Ben’s work is of great assistance to me and has been for many years.
Campaigning is already underway at Maleny Show for both State and FEderal elections with both ALP and LNP having stands. Andrew Wallace MHR for Fisher had a wide range of publications with one thing in common we the people of AUstralia paid for them not the LNP.
ALP stands were more approachable spoilt a bit by an agro member pushing her own extreme views on one subject where my views conflicted with her. All poll workers need to remember that they need to present their views in a civilised manner. ALP candidate quickly intervened and no doubt the agro worker got a bollocking.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
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