7:38pm – Most booths have now reported in all three seats, and in Derwent and Mersey the result seems pretty clear. In Windermere, Ivan Dean is sitting on 43.9%, ahead of Labor’s Houston on 28.7%. That’s probably enough for Dean to win.
6:53pm – I haven’t had time to prepare a projection model based on previous results, but William Bowe at Poll Bludger has, and he’s predicting victory for all three incumbents. That sounds about right.
6:48pm – In Windermere, right-leaning incumbent Ivan Dean is facing opposition from three opponents, including those from Labor and the Greens. This makes it harder to predict what will happen, as there is no two-candidate-preferred count in Tasmanian Legislative Council elections.
At the moment, four small booths with 1200 votes have been counted, and Dean is on 53% of the primary vote. You’d expect that he would need to be not too far ahead of his main rival (likely to be Labor’s Jennifer Houston) to allow her to win the seat on primary votes, but it’s not surprising he is doing well on small booths – if Labor is to win it would be on big urban booths in Launceston. Results, Tally Room guide.
6:44pm – In Mersey, incumbent left-leaning independent Mike Gaffney is also leading comfortably, on 74.3% of the vote. Only small booths have reported – less than 2000 votes compared to over 18,000 in 2009. Results, Tally Room guide.
6:41pm – In Derwent, Labor MLC Craig Farrell looks set to be comfortably re-elected. About half the booths (but only about 1/7 of the vote) have reported, and he’s sitting on 64% in a two-horse race. Results, Tally Room guide.
6:00pm – Polls have just closed in three elections to the Tasmanian Legislative Council, in Derwent, Mersey and Windermere.
I won’t necessarily be providing booth-by-booth commentary as the results flow in over the next few hours, but I will return later tonight or tomorrow with a results post. In the meantime, feel free to post any comments about the results here. If I have any thoughts in the meantime I will post them as updates.