We’re now getting quite close to the end of the Legislative Council count, and the button is expected to be pushed at some point later this week.
The ‘initial count’ of above-the-line votes is almost complete – there are a small number of seats where absent and other special votes are still being counted, but most seats have concluded and it seems the figures are now close to final – only a few more votes have been counted since my last update on Friday.
The ‘check count’ – where below-the-line votes are counted, and all preferences are entered into the NSWEC’s computer – is approximately 85% complete.
Using the projection model which I explained in Friday’s post, this is my current projection, based on the final figures on Monday evening:
|Candidate||Party||Votes||Quotas||Projected votes||Projected quotas|
|Fred Nile||Christian Dem||107,636||0.6407||121,487||0.6234|
|Peter Jones||No Land Tax||69,730||0.4151||79,401||0.4074|
|Mark Pearson||Animal Justice||63,951||0.3807||75,161||0.3857|
|Shayne Higson||Voluntary Euthanasia||34,594||0.2059||39,653||0.2035|
As projected last week, the Labor and Shooters vote has increased to a safe position, and the Coalition has vote has declined significantly, from 8.6 quotas to 8.44 quotas.
Comparing the approximately 85% of above-the-line votes counted in the check count to the 100% counted in the initial count, the count at the moment is still biased towards the Coalition by about 0.21%, and away from Labor by 0.15% and the Greens by 0.14%. It also appears to be biased slightly towards No Land Tax and away from Animal Justice, but the numbers get pretty small.
Because of this, the model is projecting a drop in the Liberal vote, a slight drop in the No Land Tax vote and a slight increase in the Animal Justice vote. The figures are very similar to the first projection, with No Land Tax leading by just under 4,000 votes (compared to 5,000 in the previous projection), and the Liberal and Animal Justice close behind. In the last projection, the AJP was ahead of the Liberal by 114 votes, now Liberal candidate Hughes leads the AJP by 587 votes.
At this point, you would have to say that No Land Tax remains slight favourites, considering the very light preference flows in the past, although it should be noted that the Greens’ Jeremy Buckingham and the Nationals’ Sarah Johnston gained over 20,000 and 15,000 votes respectively in preferences from other parties in their race to catch up with Pauline Hanson in 2011.
Considering that context, it is still entirely possible that Liberal candidate Hollie Hughes or Animal Justice candidate Mark Pearson could overtake No Land Tax candidate Peter Jones with preferences from other parties.