VIC 2014 – candidate and preference update


Over the weekend, I have updated every district and region profile to include the final list of candidates. You can also view and download the full list of Legislative Assembly candidates, now including ballot order.

In addition, the Group Voting Tickets (GVTs) were released for the Legislative Council. These GVTs lay out how preferences will flow for a vote cast ‘above the line’ for any party or group in the Legislative Council election. The GVT system is what has allowed for ‘preference harvesting’ in past federal and Victorian elections, and is currently facing possible abolition at a federal level.

Unfortunately I have not had any time to analyse the GVTs, but three other analysts have produced useful information that you can use to get a better sense of the preference flows.

Antony Green at the ABC has published preference flows as PDFs, available on each of his regional profiles.

William Bowe at Poll Bludger has summarised where each group’s preferences will flow amongst the main contenders for each region.

Tom Clement at Geeklections has also produced a probability analysis of each region, which includes estimates of the possible votes and the likely seat results for each region based on the GVTs.

Please post any interesting findings in the comments below, and consider this an open thread for discussion of the Victorian election for the next few days. For the final two weeks of the campaign, I will be posting a regular post every few days for general discussion of the election campaign.

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  1. ‘Vote 1 Local Jobs’ seems to get good preference flows in Western Vic. Their candidate obviously has some local profile in his area but hard to know how much of a primary vote that would translate into across the region.

    Plenty of point-scoring between Labor and Greens over preference deals, but except for Labor’s ticket in Western Vic it looks to me as though none of the controversial arrangements are very likely to actually have a negative result (eg PUP won’t get Greens preferences because they’ll almost certainly be eliminated far earlier in those regions)

    In Northern Metro Phil Cleary (Voice for the West) is preferencing all the minor candidates ahead of the Greens (3rd last), Labor (2nd last) and Liberals (last), so his votes could end up helping a minor right candidate if one is still in the contest at the later stages.

    In a scenario utterly hilarious for those of us from NSW, the Cyclists Party have given 2nd preferences to the Shooters & Fishers in Eastern Vic, and 3rd after the Sex Party in Northern Vic. Aside from that, generally speaking most of the minor candidate preferencing appears at least at first to be relatively ideologically consistent, at least by the standards of what we saw last year.

  2. In another forum I had a disagreement with someone about the role Greens or Labor preferences to PUP might or might not play in the upper house particularly in Western Victoria.

    Do you have any thoughts on who the last spot in that area might be a contest between?

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