Redistribution Archive

NZ redistribution – full analysis of draft boundaries

Last Thursday, the first round of draft boundaries for the next New Zealand election was released to the public.

After extensive work, I have now produced a Google Earth map of the boundaries, as well as estimates of the vote for each party in the party vote and candidate vote in each of the electorates.

In short, no changes were made to the seven Maori electorates (which will not feature much in this analysis), as well as to twenty of the 63 general electorates.

The other 43 general electorates have been redrawn into 44 new electorates. One electorate (Waitakere, on the western fringe of Auckland) has been abolished, with two new  electorates (Upper Harbour and Kelston) created in western Auckland. Western and northern Auckland has seen the greatest changes, with the rest of the country seeing relatively minor changes.

In terms of the impact on parties, the Nationals have lost Waitakere and gained Upper Harbour, for no net change, and Labour has gained the seat of Kelston, resulting in Labour having one more seat than on current boundaries.

In Christchurch, the seat of Christchurch Central has switched from National to Labour, and the seat of Port Hills has switched from Labour to National, for no net change.

You can download the Google Earth map here. You can also download the map, along with the 2008-2011 parliamentary map and maps of local council areas and regions, at the Maps page.

Click through below for a Fusion Table with all of the results, more maps and more data.

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Victorian state maps completed

victoria banner2Following on from the conclusion of the Victorian state redistribution in October, I have now completed the Victorian state map for Google Earth, covering the 2014 election.

Maps have been created for both the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council, and you can download them here:

You can download more maps from the Maps page.

Antony Green has produced estimated margins for the eighty-eight Legislative Assembly districts, as well as vote estimates for the redistributed Legislative Council regions.

New Zealand electorate review prospects

christchurch varianceIn New Zealand, the Census is usually conducted once every five years. The last Census was due in 2011, but due to the Canterbury earthquakes they were postponed until early 2013.

Following the Census, the country has undergone the Māori Electoral Option, where Māori voters were given the option to choose whether they vote on the Maori roll or the general roll.

Last week, the latest statistics were released showing the number of people enrolled in each electorate following the Census and the Māori Electoral Option.

The statistics show dramatic shifts in the Christchurch area, and a booming population in Auckland, while overall the New Zealand population grew only slightly.

The increasing population in Auckland will require a new seat to be created somewhere in the Auckland area, while post-earthquakes shifts in the Christchurch population will require the seats in central Christchurch to stretch further out into the suburbs to capture the large boosts in population in nearby seats.

Read on for more information, including statistics and a map with clickable information about each electorate.

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New Zealand election maps updated

Moving on from the Australian federal election, I have gone through my New Zealand election map and clarified the boundaries to ensure they are as accurate as possible.

While doing this, I have produced time-series maps for the general electorates and the Māori electorates. Each file includes the national map for both the candidate and party vote at the 2008 and 2011 elections, which you can toggle.

The electoral boundary review for the 2014-2017 elections will announce the number of general and Māori electorates, with the electorates to be redrawn over the next few months. The draft boundaries will be released in November, with the final maps released in April.

Under New Zealand law, the South Island is guaranteed 16 general electorates. A quota is struck as the general electoral population of South Island divided by 16, which is used to determine the number of Māori electorates and the number of general North Island electorates.

You can read more about the redistribution process here.

Victorian redistribution draft boundaries map finished

Following on from the completion of the NSW draft boundaries map a fortnight ago, I have now finished the Google Earth maps of the new draft boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution.

Electoral maps have been posted for the Legislative Assembly and the Legislative Council. I’ve also updated the time-series map, which can be toggled to show the results for the 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections, to include the 2014 draft boundaries.

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The draft boundaries have seen significant changes to electoral boundaries in northern and western Victoria. One seat was abolished in Eastern Metropolitan, with a second seat north of the river (Ivanhoe) shifted into the East Metro upper house region.

A seat was also abolished in Northern Victoria, with Yan Yean shifted from North Metro upper house region to make up for the abolition.

Two Western Metropolitan region seats were transferred into Northern Metropolitan region, with two new electorates created to make up the difference.

Numerous other seats were renamed or redrawn in different ways, but the two seats created in the west of the city, and the two seats abolished in the east of the city and in the north of the state, were the major shifts.

When you look at the statistics, it appears the Electoral Boundaries Commission has erred on the side of making less changes.

Region 2013 quotas 2018 quotas
Eastern Metropolitan 11.0641 10.6346
Eastern Victoria 11.0950 11.2220
Northern Metropolitan 10.8402 11.3532
Northern Victoria 11.0579 11.1974
South-Eastern Metropolitan 10.9054 10.6503
Southern Metropolitan 10.7620 10.3533
Western Metropolitan 11.1873 11.4729
Western Victoria 11.0881 11.1164

The Southern Metro and South East Metro regions have been drawn with substantially less than 11 quotas, despite a projected decline up to the 2018 election. Southern Metro in particular has been drawn with 10.76 quotas in 2013, and projected to cover only 10.35 quotas in 2018.

The Eastern and South Eastern regions are also projected to be more than one third of a quota short of eleven full quotas by 2018. Adding up these three regions on the south side of the river, and you are 1.36 quotas short of the full 33 quotas in 2018.

Meanwhile, Eastern Victoria, Northern Victoria, Western Victoria and Western Metro have been drawn with more than 11 quotas despite projected growth over the next five years. These four regions are already 0.43 quotas over the average, and this is projected to increase to over a full quota by 2018.

The Commissioners have sensibly drawn North Metro with less than a full 11 quotas. North Metro is projected to grow by over 40% of a quota by 2018.

Overall, the Victorian Commissioners have gone for an opposite approach to the NSW Commissioners – minimising changes at the cost of likely creating substantial variations from the average by the 2018 election.

NSW and Victorian redistribution updates

Last Thursday, the Victorian Electoral Boundaries Commission released the draft boundaries for the Victorian state redistribution. These boundaries are expected to cover the 2014 and 2018 state elections.

Antony Green has produced his estimates of the margins for all eighty-eight electorates.

In short, two Nationals and one Liberal seat were abolished. A new Liberal seat and two new Labor seats were created. Four other marginal Labor seats have flipped to be notionally Liberal or National.

On paper, the Nationals have lost one seat and Labor have lost two, with the Liberal Party gaining three. However the swing for Labor to win government has been reduced. On current boundaries, the ALP needs to win two seats with a swing of 1.2% to form a majority government. On new boundaries, the ALP will need to win four seats, but only need a 0.4% swing.

New South Wales is also in the process of redrawing its boundaries.

Two weeks after draft boundaries were released for the New South Wales state redistribution, I have finally completed the Google Earth map of the state.

You can download the map here.

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I’ve previously blogged about this redistribution, and Antony Green has already posted a similar analysis to the one he did for Victoria. In addition, he has released a more detailed research paper with estimates for margins and primary votes for all 93 electorates.

I have also done one extra bit of analysis, looking at which parts of the state have been drawn under- or over-quota.

The Commissioners were required to fit electorates to two quotas: within 10% of the average for the number of voters as of February 2013, and the estimated number of voters as of April 2015.

Region 2013 quotas 2015 quotas
Central Sydney 10.8169 10.8921
Hunter & Central Coast 14.0397 13.9789
Northern NSW 6.9952 6.9832
Northern Sydney 11.0712 11.0423
South-East NSW 9.1528 9.1280
Southern Sydney 5.1172 5.0696
South-West Sydney 10.8176 10.8978
Western NSW 10.2230 10.1182
Western Sydney 14.7664 14.8897

The Commissioners have clearly chosen to draw seats larger than the average in regions with a declining population (Northern Sydney, South-East NSW, Southern Sydney, Western NSW), and draw smaller seats in regions with a growing population (Central Sydney, South-West Sydney, Western Sydney). The Hunter, Central Coast and the north of the state have been drawn very close to the quota.

These numbers reflect the approach of the ALP, rather than the Nationals who advocated using the loose quota rules to draw less-populated electorates in regional areas. The Liberal Party and the Greens proposed boundaries that stuck very closely to the quota.

The Commissioners only drew three districts that diverge from the 2015 quota by more than 3.5%, and thus would have been prohibited under the previous rules. One of these seats is the far-western Barwon, that is declining in population rather quickly. The other two are Shellharbour and Wollongong in the Illawarra region. Both are also declining, and have been drawn to be above the quota.

UPDATE: Edward Boyce in comments has pointed out an error. In addition to the three seats that have been drawn more than 3.5% over the quota, the Western Sydney seats of Camden and Riverstone, which are both growing very fast, have been drawn more than 3.5% under quota.

UPDATE 2: My error: the former threshold was 3%, not 3.5%, and eleven electorates vary by more than 3%.

NSW redistribution boundaries – the next day

A substantial amount of analysis was produced yesterday about the draft boundaries for the NSW redistribution.

You can look at the maps here.

Antony Green has posted his estimated margins for each electorate.

He estimates that the ALP has lost two seats net to the Liberal Party. A Nationals seat was abolished in Western Sydney, while the new seat of Newtown was created, and is considered to be notionally Green.

As expected, there was a significant knock-on effect through southwestern Sydney and southwestern NSW.

This knock-on effect sees the seat of Goulburn changed dramatically. The town that gives the seat its name is now at the eastern edge of the seat, while Goulburn has gained large parts of Burrinjuck, including Yass.

The remainder of Burrinjuck has been merged with eastern parts of Murrumbidgee as the new seat of Cootamundra.

The three seats of Goulburn, Burrinjuck and Murrumbidgee are all held by ministers: Pru Goward, Katrina Hodgkinson and Adrian Piccoli. These three seats have been reduced to two, and this could see a clash between ministers, or force one of them to grab a seat off a neighbouring MP.

The seat of Murray-Darling has been renamed to Murray with the loss of Broken Hill, while Barwon has grown even larger to cover the sparsely populated north-west of the state.

Bathurst has been largely left alone, while Dubbo and Orange have swapped quite a bit of territory, shifting from a north-south axis to an east-west axis.

Changes were relatively mild in other parts of regional New South Wales.

In Sydney, the north shore has been left alone with only minor changes. The biggest changes start with the creation of the seat of Newtown, which has absorbed most of the excess quota from Heffron and Sydney and allowed those two seats to largely remain intact.

Antony Green estimates that Newtown is a notional Greens seat. I haven’t had a chance to crunch numbers myself, but this makes sense. The Greens seat of Balmain has largely been left intact, except for the loss of the suburb of Haberfield, which is considerably more conservative than the rest of the seat.

The ALP should have less trouble holding the new seat of Summer Hill than its predecessor of Marrickville, although the seat is still likely to be strong for the Greens.

Quite a few more seats are reshuffled throughout south-western and north-western Sydney. The seats of Menai and Smithfield have been renamed as Holsworthy and Prospect respectively. The ALP seat of Macquarie Fields has shifted south, gaining areas in the seat of Campbelltown which swung much more strongly to the Liberal Party. This is enough to switch the seat from notional Labor to Liberal.

Former Premier Nathan Rees’ seat of Toongabbie has shifted significantly and has been renamed Seven Hills, and his margin of 0.3% has become a Liberal margin of 8.5%.

2011 was a terrible result for Labor, and it’s probably not worth focusing too much on seats right at the bottom of the pendulum. Labor will presumably gain at least some swing back to them, and if there was to be a competitive election, the seats on current margins from 10% to 20% that would prove decisive.

So far, the boundaries seem very sensible, and a good attempt at dealing with all of the contradictions and demands that come with electoral redistributions.

I have started work on my Google Earth map of the new boundaries, but won’t have it finished until later this week. I will come back with those when they have been completed.

NSW redistribution – draft boundaries released

The NSW Electoral Commission has released the draft boundaries for the NSW state redistribution this morning.

I’m at work today so won’t be able to do any in-depth analysis until later. I’m sure Antony Green will post his analysis today, and in the meantime you can post your comments about what this means in the comments section below.

Some quick thoughts:

  • Marrickville has effectively been split into two seats: Summer Hill and Newtown. Newtown stretches from Petersham to Redfern and Surry Hills and is likely to be very strong for the Greens.
  • Balmain has been largely left alone – losing Haberfield and gaining a bit of Ultimo.
  • Sydney has lost part of Ultimo and all of Surry Hills.
  • Summer Hill covers all of the suburb of Marrickville, most of Lewisham, all of Dulwich Hill and most of Ashfield LGA.

Please have a look at the maps and post interesting information you find below.

I have the day off on Wednesday, so I hope that by the end of Wednesday I can complete a new Google Earth map of the boundaries.

Victorian redistribution: round one

The four parties represented in the Victorian parliament have all put in submissions for the redistribution leading up the 2014 election.

These boundaries were last drawn prior to the 2002 election, and in some areas seat populations have diverged quite dramatically from the average.

Generally the Labor and Greens proposals suggest a substantial amount of changes, while the Liberal and Nationals proposals try to avoid significant changes.

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NSW redistribution: round one

Last week, the first round of suggestions for the NSW state electoral redistribution were released.

From here, there will be a chance to lodge a comment on these suggestions by Wednesday, March 20, and then the Commissioners will produce a draft map of the state. Following this stage there will be an opportunity for objections and comments on those objections before a final map is produced.

In this blog post I’m going to focus on the submissions from the four main political parties: Labor, Liberal, National and Greens. I should disclose that I played a large role in drawing up the Greens map.

These four parties all submitted a submission, covering the entire state, including a Mapinfo file map of the whole state. The ALP, Liberal Party and Greens provided static maps of varying quality, unfortunately the National Party provided no maps that could be viewed without Mapinfo. I’ve converted each party’s submission to Google Earth format, and you can download them, along with the spreadsheet I’ve used to analyse the results, at the end of this post.

In summary, across the state, the Greens have made changes to the smallest number of seats, leaving 22 out of 93 seats with no changes at all. The Labor submission is close behind, leaving 18 seats unchanged. The Liberal Party changed all but six seats, and the Nationals changed all but five.

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