Redistribution Archive

1

SA federal redistribution – here is the map

I’ve now finished the draft boundary map for the SA federal redistribution, following on from the draft boundaries released the previous week for Victoria and the ACT.

Download the Google Earth map for the draft SA federal boundaries.

Remember there is a wide range of electoral maps – federal, state and local, dating back at least a decade – on the maps page.

And here is an interactive map. You can toggle on and off the 2016 and 2019 boundaries.

13

New federal pendulum after recent redistributions

Following the release of the draft South Australian redistribution boundaries yesterday, we can now put together a pendulum of all seat margins for the next election. This pendulum uses the actual election margins for New South Wales and Western Australia, and the final post-redistribution margins for Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, as well as the post-redistribution margins for the draft boundaries for Victoria, South Australia and the ACT.

I’ve included this pendulum below the fold, but you can also find it at this link. I’ve now posted the pendulum, along with a list of seats in alphabetical order and a list of seats by state, on the federal election guide. There are now twenty seat guides posted there, and I will keep posting at least one per day for the foreseeable future. The pendulum below won’t keep getting updated with fresh links but does include the twenty so far.

The only update since yesterday’s post is that I calculated two-candidate-preferred margins between the Liberal Party and the Nick Xenophon Team in Barker, Grey and Mayo. In these three seats, I calculated what proportion of primary votes for all other parties flowed to either of these two parties in the final count in those parts of the seat where NXT made the top two. Some areas were swapped back and forth between Grey and Barker, so they were included as if they had always been in the seat. This proportion was then applied to the remaining primary votes.

The figures are:

  • Barker – LIB vs NXT 4.2% (down from 4.7%)
  • Grey – LIB vs NXT 1.9% (down from 2.0%)
  • Mayo – NXT vs LIB 5.3% (up from 5.0%)

These are all shifts towards the NXT, but they should come with a grain of salt. They fit with the overall trend of the Liberal Party not losing any seats but having all of their seats become more marginal.

Read the rest of this entry »

5

SA redistribution live

12:30pm – That’s all I’ll be posting today. I’ll be back on the weekend with an updated pendulum, and will be putting together the map in coming days.

12:26pm – On a primary vote basis in Mayo, the Liberal Party has dropped 1.1%, NXT has dropped 1.9%, and Labor has jumped by 3.1%, thanks to inclusion of Boothby and Kingston, which were seats where Labor competed much more strongly.

It’s also worth noting that the Liberal-Labor 2PP figure in all three seats where NXT broke into the top two have seen Labor’s position strengthen. I will have to make my own estimates of the LIB vs NXT margin in these three seats, but won’t happen until tomorrow.

12:20pm – So here are the toplines:

  • Labor has lost its sixth seat, thanks to the merger of Port Adelaide and Wakefield into Spence, which is a very safe seat.
  • The extremely marginal Labor seat of Hindmarsh has become reasonably safe, while Adelaide has also got a lot safer, and Makin is a bit safer.
  • It’s hard to predict the margins in Barker, Grey or Mayo because there were parts of these seats where the two-candidate-preferred count didn’t involve NXT. So that’s why these margins haven’t changed much. About 86% of Grey and Mayo were already in the seat before the redistribution, while the figure is just over 90% for Barker.
  • The Liberal Party’s position has got weaker in Boothby and Sturt.

12:15pm – Here are my margin estimates.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Adelaide ALP 4.7% ALP 8.3%
Barker LIB vs NXT 4.7% LIB vs NXT 4.2%
Boothby LIB 3.5% LIB 2.7%
Grey LIB vs NXT 2% LIB vs NXT 1.9%
Hindmarsh ALP 0.6% ALP 8.4%
Kingston ALP 17% ALP 13.5%
Makin ALP 9.7% ALP 10.8%
Mayo NXT vs LIB 5% NXT vs LIB 5.3%
Port Adelaide ALP vs NXT 14.9% Abolished
Spence (Wakefield) ALP 11% ALP 17.1%
Sturt LIB 5.9% LIB 5.4%

12:08pm – Here are my estimates of the 2PP and primary vote.

Vote estimates

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN primNXT prim
Adelaide58.341.739.0732.5510.013.7
Barker36.163.916.3245.563.628.6
Boothby47.352.726.9241.678.218.5
Grey42.257.822.542.222.726.7
Hindmarsh58.441.639.9831.36.617.0
Kingston63.536.545.326.165.818.1
Makin60.839.242.727.474.716.7
Mayo46.753.316.6236.628.233.0
Spence67.132.945.0820.784.620.1
Sturt44.655.423.344.387.619.9

11:56am – It turns out the redistribution was released at 11:30am east coast time, not Adelaide time (as predicted by the AEC) so I’m just catching up now. Will have estimates in a few minutes. It appears Wakefield and Port Adelaide have been merged as the seat of Spence.

14

How should we be naming our federal seats?

Australian federal electorates follow a fairly unique naming convention. Australian state seats are usually named after geographic locations, which is also common for national electorates in Canada, the UK and New Zealand, while electoral districts in the United States are generally given numerical names.

The majority of Australian federal electorates are named after prominent individual Australians, as a way of honouring those people. 113 out of 150 seats in the current parliament are named after people, while 37 are named after geographic features.

The AEC is usually hesitant to rename seats, and their guidelines prioritise maintaining existing seat names. Yet seats do change from time to time: states gain additional seats, population shifts within a state sometimes require a seat to be abolished, and there is pretty much a hard-and-fast rule that former prime ministers are honoured with a seat as soon as possible after their death.

Because of this practice, most seat names are those that were named in the first half of last century:

43 seats are those created for the first parliaments. 35 seats have survived since 1901, while eight other seats are the same as when they were created in Tasmania and South Australia in 1903 (those states did not use single-member electorates in 1901).

There were spikes in seat names in 1949 and 1984, when the parliament was expanded. More than two thirds of electorates were named in these three peak periods.

Thus it’s not surprising to discover a strong bias towards naming seats after white men. This partly reflects the era in which seat names were coined, but also reflects how men were much more likely to qualify as someone who had “rendered outstanding service to their country” in an era where women didn’t get the same opportunities.

After the fold I will run through why this has happened, and how the AEC isn’t making anywhere near enough progress towards honouring a more diverse cross-section of Australians. You can also download the dataset I used to conduct this analysis.

Read the rest of this entry »

3

ACT and Victorian redistributions – here are the maps

I’ve finished making Google Earth maps for the draft federal boundaries for Victoria and the ACT, and they are now available for download:

I’ve also turned them into interactive maps below the fold, which show the 2016 and 2019 boundaries (you can toggle each layer on and off). Enjoy!

49

ACT and VIC redistributions live

3:01 – This is my last comment for now. I’ll be working on the boundary map over the weekend and plan to return by Monday with some more analysis. I just wanted to zoom out to the big picture.

Two extra seats were created today, bringing the total seats in the parliament to 152. This will drop back to 151 when the draft boundaries are released in South Australia. We’ve also had 3 other redistributions already finished this term but they all had minor impacts.

The seat totals now are:

  • Coalition – 75 (-1)
  • Labor – 72 (+3)
  • Others – 5 (-)

Labor previously needed a 1% uniform swing to become the largest party. They now need a 0.6% uniform swing. They previously needed a 1.4% swing to become the largest party. If you assume that the abolished SA seat is a Liberal or NXT seat, they will only need a swing of 0.7%. This increases to 1% if Labor loses a seat in the South Australian redistribution.

Overall this is a very good outcome for Labor and, combined with strong polling, puts them in a stronger position to win the next election.

2:45 – Corangamite has shifted east, losing touch with Lake Corangamite (hence the renaming to Cox) and taking in the Bellarine peninsula from Corio. This has almost entirely wiped out Sarah Henderson’s margin. McEwen lost some of its Melbourne fringe area, while also losing Puckapunyal and Seymour to Murray/Nicholls, but gained Macedon. Overall this weakened Labor’s hold on the seat. La Trobe shifted east, to sit more clearly on the eastern fringe of Melbourne, while the Bass Coast area has shifted into McMillan/Monash. Changes to the large rural seats appear to have been small.

2:42 – In the western suburbs, the new seat of Fraser mostly covers the Brimbank council area, taking in areas formerly contained in Maribyrnong, Gellibrand, Gorton and Calwell. All of these seats have been pushed away from the new seat in different directions.

2:36 – There’s been some significant redrawing in the south-east which will make Labor happy. It appears Goldstein has been left alone, Chisholm has shifted north (and become slightly safer for the Liberal Party), and Deakin has shifted east (likewise becoming safer). Isaacs has shifted north, pushing Hotham east, making both Labor seats more marginal. Bruce has shifted west, becoming a lot safer for Labor, and all of these changes have pulled up Dunkley, flipping it from marginal Liberal to marginal Labor.

2:22 – In the north-east, Jagajaga has lost its north-eastern tip and gained territory from Scullin, while Menzies has jumped the Yarra (which has reduced its margin).

2:17 – Changes in central Melbourne are relatively modest. Batman has lost its northern fringe to Scullin (which helps the Greens with the margin based on 2016 results), and gained Coburg North from Wills. Melbourne lost its north-western corner to Bill Shorten’s seat of Maribyrnong. Kooyong has expanded slightly on its eastern edge, while Windsor has moved from Higgins into Macnamara.

1:59 – The new electoral boundaries for the ACT improve the Greens chances of breaking through in the lower house (although they are still distant). The old boundaries spread the Greens vote evenly, with about 15% voting Green in both seats in 2016. These new boundaries push up their support in Canberra to 18.7%, while it’s down around 13% in the two other divisions.

1:55 – Now it’s time to take a look at the maps! I’ll be putting together my own interactive maps over the weekend but not for today. Firstly, it’s worth noting that Bean is actually a successor to the old Canberra, taking in Tuggeranong and other southern suburbs. The new Canberra takes in parts of the two old electorates and is centred on Lake Burley Griffin, as Canberra was the last time the ACT had three seats from 1996 to 1998. Here’s that seat’s map:

1:48 – I’ve now updated both tables with the correct numbers. The changes are quite small but please use these updated figures. I’ve now added in estimates for Indi and Higgins. In Indi I ignored a few thousand votes from Murray where we don’t have an IND vs LIB count. In Higgins I counted some Labor two-candidate-preferred from Hotham towards the Greens. In Melbourne I counted some Labor 2CP from Batman and Wills towards the Liberal.

1:24 – Okay I’m revising up my margin of McEwen from 3.6% to 5.9% and Nicholls down from 25.2% to 22.4%.

1:22 – I’m doing some tinkering with my estimates – found a small bug which mainly effected McEwen and Monash.

1:11 – I’ll have plenty to say about the AEC’s policy on naming divisions, but not right now.

1:10 – The Greens are closer to overtaking Michael Danby in his renamed seat of MacNamara. Danby outpolled the Greens by 3.2% to stay in second place on primary votes in 2016, but this gap has dropped to 2.35% on the new boundaries.

1:07 – This gives Labor 72 notional seats, with the Coalition down from 76 to 75, and five independents. Bear in mind that we will see a seat abolished in South Australia next week, so those numbers don’t add up.

1:05 – I can see one seat that has changed hands – Dunkley appears to be a notional Labor seat now. Cox (formerly Corangamite) has almost become a tied seat, while Labor has also gained the two new seats. Labor seats like Holt, Hotham, Isaacs and McEwen have all become more marginal.

1:02 – And here is my estimate of margins

I need to go back and calculate a LIB vs GRN margin for Higgins and also an independent margin for Indi.

SeatOld marginNew margin
Aston LIB 8.6% LIB 7.6%
Ballarat ALP 7.3% ALP 7.4%
Batman ALP vs GRN 1% ALP vs GRN 0.7%
Bean (Canberra) ALP 8.5% ALP 8.9%
Bendigo ALP 3.7% ALP 3.9%
Bruce ALP 4.1% ALP 14.2%
Calwell ALP 17.9% ALP 19.7%
Canberra New seat ALP 12.9%
Casey LIB 6.1% LIB 4.5%
Chisholm LIB 1.2% LIB 3%
Corio ALP 10% ALP 8.3%
Cox (Corangamite) LIB 3.1% LIB 0%
Deakin LIB 5.7% LIB 6.3%
Dunkley LIB 1.4% ALP 1%
Fenner ALP 13.9% ALP 11.8%
Flinders LIB 7.8% LIB 7%
Fraser New seat ALP 19.8%
Gellibrand ALP 18.2% ALP 15.1%
Gippsland NAT 18.4% NAT 18.3%
Goldstein LIB 12.7% LIB 12.7%
Gorton ALP 19.5% ALP 18.5%
Higgins LIB vs GRN 8% LIB vs GRN 7.6%
Holt ALP 14.2% ALP 9.7%
Hotham ALP 7.5% ALP 4.1%
Indi IND vs LIB 4.8% IND vs LIB 4.9%
Isaacs ALP 5.7% ALP 3.1%
Jagajaga ALP 4.7% ALP 5.6%
Kooyong LIB 13.3% LIB 12.7%
La Trobe LIB 1.5% LIB 3.3%
Lalor ALP 13.4% ALP 14.2%
Macnamara (Melbourne Ports) ALP 1.4% ALP 1.2%
Mallee NAT 21.3% NAT 20.1%
Maribyrnong ALP 12.3% ALP 10.5%
McEwen ALP 7.8% ALP 5.9%
Melbourne GRN vs LIB 18.5% GRN vs LIB 18.5%
Menzies LIB 10.6% LIB 7.8%
Monash (McMillan) LIB 6% LIB 7.5%
Nicholls (Murray) NAT vs LIB 24.9% NAT 22.4%
Scullin ALP 17.3% ALP 20%
Wannon LIB 9% LIB 9.4%
Wills ALP vs GRN 4.9% ALP vs GRN 4.9%

12:51 – Okay here are my estimates of the vote in each seat. A comparison of margins will be up next.

Vote estimates

SeatALP 2PPLNP 2PPALP primLNP primGRN prim
Aston42.457.630.9949.698.9
Ballarat57.442.643.3238.910.8
Batman72.028.035.1219.7136.6
Bendigo53.946.138.6541.3610.9
Bruce64.235.854.3130.226.6
Calwell69.730.358.4325.98.2
Casey45.554.528.1747.4912.9
Chisholm47.053.034.6947.1511.4
Corio58.341.743.5436.5211.7
Cox50.050.03443.7412.1
Deakin43.756.330.0950.0911.4
Dunkley51.049.136.4141.139.5
Flinders43.057.027.5550.5511.0
Fraser69.830.258.6125.359.7
Gellibrand65.134.946.129.819.1
Gippsland31.768.320.1256.257.8
Goldstein37.362.721.8856.3315.9
Gorton68.531.561.228.7710.0
Higgins39.960.116.5351.5824.2
Holt59.740.348.6433.986.5
Hotham54.145.942.9140.449.1
Indi45.055.09.9545.523.9
Isaacs53.147.041.0642.5910.6
Jagajaga55.644.541.0540.1413.5
Kooyong37.362.720.7257.5118.5
La Trobe46.753.332.1344.258.2
Lalor64.235.852.6230.219.6
Macnamara51.248.826.5541.9424.2
Mallee29.970.122.3463.297.0
Maribyrnong60.539.642.0733.6917.3
McEwen55.944.142.0737.958.6
Melbourne66.933.123.8624.9144.6
Menzies42.257.826.9549.810.4
Monash42.557.527.8449.8210.1
Nicholls27.672.41764.854.4
Scullin70.030.059.9125.637.2
Wannon40.659.429.9153.488.1
Wills71.628.437.8921.5231.0
Bean58.941.144.4837.2813.6
Canberra62.937.142.4432.8718.7
Fenner61.838.245.9733.2913.0

12:37 – There was a campaign to rename Batman due to the seat’s namesake’s historical atrocities against Aboriginal people. Smaller campaigns focused on McMillan and Gellibrand. This appears to have succeeded in McMillan but not Gellibrand or Batman. The other three seats with new names were all named after geographic features. While the AEC has generally not supported seats named after geographic features, they haven’t actively sought to rename these seats when there’s not a need. This suggests a change in policy.

12:32 – According to this statement, the seat of Batman will not be renamed.

Other information includes:

  • 19.5% of electors will change their electorate.
  • Renaming of seats will effect 10.54% of electors.

I still don’t see the report or the data online.

12:30 – We don’t have anything online but there have been some people who must have the report tweeting about name changes, including:

  • The new ACT seat named Bean
  • McMillan renamed Monash
  • Melbourne Ports renamed Macnamara
  • Corangamite renamed Cox
  • Murray renamed Nicholls

And the new seat of Fraser will be in the north-west of Melbourne.

11:45 – The AEC is promising to release the draft electoral boundaries for the ACT and Victoria around ‘lunchtime’ or ‘midday’. I’ll be posting my analysis of those boundaries here as quickly as possible, prioritising calculating primary vote and 2PP by seat. Stay tuned.

0

QLD, TAS & NT federal redistributions – estimates of margins

In recent months, federal redistributions have been completed for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and Queensland, with Queensland’s being finalised on January 5.

As far as I can tell, no-one else has published margin estimates for the five Tasmanian seats and the two NT seats. Antony Green has published his estimates of the Queensland margins here. You’ll see that my estimates don’t diverge by much – by 0.1% per seat on average.

I have recently been calculating my own redistribution margins as part of the process of transferring booths so that I can produce maps for the new boundaries as part of my guides. This time I decided to use a new methodology which should be more reliable and quicker.

The AEC publishes data on how many votes were cast at each polling place (and each method of special vote) from each SA1 – the smallest area used for Census data. The AEC also publishes a list of every SA1 and which electorate it has been moved into (and out of) for each redistribution.

Using these datasets, it’s possible to quickly take the results of each booth, split them up in proportion to how much of that booth’s voters have been redistributed, and calculate new totals.

This is superior to my old methodology, where I would move booths according to which seat they lie in. Unfortunately this did not take account of small shifts where no booth moved, or where a booth was right on the border. I would have to guess how much of the booth’s voters would’ve shifted. The new method uses the actual AEC data. It is also a better solution to moving special votes. I’ve traditionally taken an even proportion of all special votes, even though this includes a bunch of pre-poll booths which are distributed across a seat. In practice these pre-poll booths would likely take more voters from one area than another, so distributing their votes according to the actual homes of the voters is far superior.

As to the results of these redistributions, 12 Queensland electorates experienced no change at all. Not one of the 37 seats has changed party. The biggest change has taken place in Lyons, with the Labor margin strengthened from 2.3% to 3.8%. The second biggest effect was in Blair, where the Labor margin was cut from 8.9% to 8.1%.

The five most marginal seats in these three jurisdictions did not experience any change. There was no boundary change in Flynn, Longman, Forde or Herbert, and the minor change to Capricornia had no impact on the seat’s margin.

The full list of margins are below the fold. I look forward to using this new method to quickly calculate margins for the three remaining redistributions (Victoria, SA and ACT) when the draft boundaries are released in coming months.

Read the rest of this entry »

1

Tasmania goes to the polls – March 3

It appears that the Tasmanian premier, Will Hodgman, will today call the state election for March 3. For the first time since 2002, the Tasmanian election won’t coincide with the South Australian election, set for March 17.

Current polling suggests the Liberal majority government (holding 15 out of 25 seats) will struggle to maintain its majority (although they do still have a chance). The balance of power in a hung parliament would likely be held by the Greens, although we can’t rule out the possibility of the Jacqui Lambie Network winning a seat. As has become common in Tasmanian elections, both major parties have ruled out governing with the Greens, which could lead to a messy outcome if neither side holds a majority. Kevin Bonham discussed this prospect in a blog post yesterday.

I have published a complete guide to the Tasmanian election. Here are the links to the five seat guides:

Each guide contains a list of candidates (to be updated when nominations close), along with an electorate history, past results, breakdowns of results into sub-areas, and maps showing those results.

Tasmania’s state electorates normally follow the same boundaries as federal electorates, but it’s worth noting that the recent Tasmanian federal redistribution has not yet been implemented for state elections. So this will be the last election using an electorate named “Denison”, and the new boundaries will first be used for the next federal election and then for the Tasmanian state election in 2022. These boundaries will likely be replaced by the time of the 2026 election.

This guide has been put together thanks to the donations of the 38 patrons who have signed up via Patreon. If you appreciate this website and would like to support my upcoming coverage of these two state elections, please consider signing up and chipping in a few dollars a month.

5

Queensland federal redistribution finalised

Six Australian states and territories have been due for federal electorate redistributions during the current federal parliamentary term – we’ve already completed the process in Tasmania and the Northern Territory, and the process was well under way in Queensland.

It turns out that the final decision for the Queensland federal redistribution was announced on January 5. The decision appears to be exactly the same as the draft map, which I blogged about in October.

You can download the boundaries file from the maps page, and you can see how the boundaries have changed in the below map.

This redistribution was one of the most subtle in recent years. Twelve out of 30 seats experienced no change, while the other 18 mostly experienced minor changes.

25

QLD federal redistribution – draft released

I’ve been quite busy recently and hadn’t had time to deal with the recent draft released for the Queensland federal redistribution.

To be honest it’s the least interesting redistribution I’ve encountered in the nine years I have written for this blog. Queensland is maintaining its 30 federal electorates after a series of rapid redistributions which repeatedly increased its seat numbers. Twelve electorates were left entirely untouched, and most of the others underwent very minor changes.

Antony Green has analysed the boundaries and made estimates for the electoral boundaries. No seat flipped party, although a few have a changed margin.

You can now download my boundary map for this draft proposal.

I have also recently updated a number of other maps: the final Tasmanian federal map, the final NSW local government boundaries as of 2017, and the New Zealand electoral map updated to reflect the results of the 2017 election. You can download them all from the maps page.