East Hills – NSW 2019

LIB 0.4%

Incumbent MP
Glenn Brookes, since 2011.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers southern parts of the City of Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra and Condell Park.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.

There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.

Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.

Candidates

  • Cameron Murphy (Labor)

Assessment
East Hills is the most marginal seat in New South Wales. It was even more marginal in 2015, but there was practically no swing in this seat while the rest of the state swung strongly to Labor. Polls suggest that there will be a statewide swing to Labor again in 2019, at which point it’s hard to imagine the Liberal Party holding on with their slim margin.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 20,97544.2+2.9
Cameron Murphy Labor 19,95842.1+1.0
Astrid O’Neill Greens 3,1416.6+1.7
Violet AbdullaChristian Democrats2,3104.9+0.7
Jean RussellNo Land Tax1,0782.3+2.3
Informal2,1244.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 22,18450.4+0.2
Cameron Murphy Labor 21,81249.6-0.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51% in the south-east and 55% in the south-west.

Labor won 57.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East51.115,67133.0
South-West55.110,25221.6
North42.47,25315.3
Other votes51.28,85918.7
Pre-poll48.85,42711.4

Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.