East Hills – NSW 2019

LIB 0.4%

Incumbent MP
Glenn Brookes, since 2011.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers southern parts of the City of Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra and Condell Park.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.

There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.

Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.

Candidates

  • Cameron Murphy (Labor)

Assessment
East Hills is the most marginal seat in New South Wales. It was even more marginal in 2015, but there was practically no swing in this seat while the rest of the state swung strongly to Labor. Polls suggest that there will be a statewide swing to Labor again in 2019, at which point it’s hard to imagine the Liberal Party holding on with their slim margin.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 20,97544.2+2.9
Cameron Murphy Labor 19,95842.1+1.0
Astrid O’Neill Greens 3,1416.6+1.7
Violet AbdullaChristian Democrats2,3104.9+0.7
Jean RussellNo Land Tax1,0782.3+2.3
Informal2,1244.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 22,18450.4+0.2
Cameron Murphy Labor 21,81249.6-0.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51% in the south-east and 55% in the south-west.

Labor won 57.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East51.115,67133.0
South-West55.110,25221.6
North42.47,25315.3
Other votes51.28,85918.7
Pre-poll48.85,42711.4

Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election

Become a Patron!

19 COMMENTS

  1. There were expectations of a by-election here; but Brookes’s campaign manager somehow escaped conviction. The re-entry of Brookes into the Liberal caucus surely signals an intention to re-contest. One wonders how much assistance he’ll get from his party.

  2. Labor gain. Brookes’s name has (rightly) been dragged through the mud for the smear campaign his team ran here last time. Voters don’t like to be lied to.

  3. Same ALP candidate as last time. No local narrative at all, a bad choice, similar to the one they have made in B
    anks.

    I wouldn’t be so quick to write Brooke’s off – quirky electorate that likes a rebellious streak.

  4. moderate suspect your own bias shows through…. East Hills will vote Labor…… Mr Brookes is not bucking the liberal party line in any way

  5. The Labor Party candidate lives in the electorate of East Hills. It is only Liberal Party candidates that are required to have absolutely no connection with the electorate they are contesting.

    I read the two local newspapers each week. There has not been any mention of who the Liberal Party candidate will be.
    Glenn Brookes calls himself an independent in the local papers while he is listed as a Liberal Party member on the NSW Parliament website.

  6. Hey Watson Watch – you’d better tell Mark Dreyfus that!!!
    And Mick – you have no bias yourself??

  7. Taking the Glenn Brookes Factor out for a second, this seat shows some similar characteristics to Oatley, with the influence of the Georges River Section of the seat giving some pretty strong Liberal Territory (Padstow Heights, Picnic Point and East Hills). The strong result in Milperra shows that the Liberal Party is starting to make inroads up the seat, as the gentrification continues to occur. Under normal circumstances, I could see this ending up a genuine marginal seat, much more marginal than Oatley (given the strong Labor areas in Condell Park and around Revesby).

    When you factor in Glenn Brookes, the Liberal Party will not retain this seat. He has been a dud MP from the get-go. Unfortunately, NSW Labor could have done a lot better than retain Cameron Murphy for this seat. While he has lived in the seat now for 4 years, he still has that “blow-in” feel that never sits well for a candidate (take the Paul Nicolau example for the Pittwater By-Election back in 2005).

    Labor will win this seat but that will be more because Glenn Brookes has been so ineffective.

  8. I doubt if Labor can win next March – especially if Foley remains leader. But if they have to seriously win or come close, then they MUST win East Hills to have any genuine hope.

  9. 7 seats for a minority….13 seats for an absolute majority yes is a hard ask .but each 3rd election tends to be very close. Alp can win up to half a dozen country seats… also would win urban seats including East Hills. Remember seats in the Parramatta Blacktown area have not returned to labor yet but can as they did 1995 to 2007 elections

  10. Honestly, I think it would be more likely to be a Labor gain if Brookes did contest.

    Given the margin, still very likely to change hands, but I don’t think we can credit Brookes with any personal vote should he have contested (the opposite in fact).

  11. yes there have been population changes…. which have changed the nature of this seat whether Brookes is a positive or negative for the libs I do not know…… but will change handsin 2019

  12. The Liberals haven’t selected a candidate yet.

    There hasn’t been any mention of Liberal preselection or candidates in the local papers (Bankstown Torch & Bankstown Express).

    Under the new electoral laws, declared candidates for the 2019 election need to register with the NSW Electoral Commission.

    The current list of candidates can be accessed from http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/fd/registers/2019_sge_candidates

    The reports appear to be updated weekly.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here