Bowman – Australia 2013

LNP 10.4%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Laming, since 2004.

Geography
Bowman covers the entire territory of Redland LGA, to the east of Brisbane. The seat covers Stradbroke Island and other islands at the southern end of Moreton Bay as well as suburbs such as Capalaba, Cleveland, Alexandra Hills, Birkdale, Victoria Point and Redland Bay.

History
Bowman was created in 1949 and has been a typical marginal seat, swinging back and forth between Labor and Liberal. The seat was held by the Liberal Party for all but two terms of the 1949-1972 Coalition government. The seat was won by the ALP in 1961 before returning to the Coalition in 1963. Leonard Keogh won the seat for the ALP in 1969, and held on to the seat for the entirety of the Whitlam government. Bowman was a bellwether seat for over two decades from 1972 to 1998.

David Jull won the seat for the Liberals in 1975, and held the seat until 1983, when Keogh won the seat back after contesting it in 1977 and 1980. Jull returned to Parliament in nearby Fadden in 1984 and served briefly as a Minister in the Howard government.

Keogh was challenged for preselection in 1987 by Con Sciacca, who went on to serve as a parliamentary secretary and junior minister from 1990 to 1996, when he lost his seat to Andrea West before winning it back in 1998. Sciacca returned to the Labor frontbench and survived a close race in 2001 when Andrew Laming reduced his margin to 1.4%. In 2004, the Queensland redistribution saw some of Labor’s best parts of Bowman transferred to the new seat of Bonner, and Sciacca ran in Bonner, where he was defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Laming won Bowman in 2004 off a 6% swing, and he held the seat with a comfortable 9.1% margin. In 2007, another redistribution improved the position for the ALP slightly, and an 8.9% swing almost defeated Laming, eventually winning the seat by 64 votes. Even that slim margin was taken away from Laming by the 2010 redistribution, but a 10.4% swing towards the LNP saw Laming win the seat very comfortably.

Candidates

Assessment
Bowman was the most marginal seat in the country in 2010, with an effective margin of zero. The massive swing to the LNP in 2010 should ensure that Laming survives at this election, although Bowman’s traditional marginal status should return in the future.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Laming LNP 45,585 55.63 +9.51
Jenny Peters ALP 24,719 30.17 -13.97
David Keogh GRN 8,174 9.97 +4.51
Karina Windolf FF 1,834 2.24 -0.70
David Chidgey ON 865 1.06 +0.53
John Kent DLP 768 0.94 +0.94

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Andrew Laming LNP 49,490 60.39 +10.39
Jenny Peters ALP 32,455 39.61 -10.39
Polling places in Bowman at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, Islands in yellow, South in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Bowman at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, Islands in yellow, South in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies on the mainland, at the western end of the seat. These polling places have been split into west, south and central. The remaining polling places on the islands have been grouped together.

The LNP won a majority in all four areas, varying from 51.1% on the islands to 64.5% in the Central area.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
West 10.97 56.80 29,732 36.28
South 8.87 62.84 14,510 17.71
Central 9.54 64.85 14,356 17.52
Islands 12.62 51.07 3,740 4.56
Other votes 9.09 62.54 19,607 23.93
Two-party-preferred votes in Bowman at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Bowman at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northwestern parts of Bowman at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in northwestern parts of Bowman at the 2010 federal election.

9 COMMENTS

  2. The swing in was primarily attributable towards the general swing across Queensland towards the LNP, but the loss of strong Labor areas around Wynnum and Manly certainly doesn’t help the ALP’s cause.

  3. It’ll be interesting to see if former State Labor Member for Redlands/Cleveland, Darryl Briskey can keep much of his personal vote. I suspect Labor will still have a swing away from them here, but it will be much less with him running.

  4. Laming to win. I am predicting that Andrew Laming may be in consideration as a future Prime Minister if he keeps his now steady course.

  5. Laming as a future PM? Wow, massive call. He is impressive in person and works hard. He takes the time to visit both Liberal held areas and Nationals. I know at the state election some regional MPs that were impressed he came and helped their campaigns.

    When I think of other potential PMs in Queensland I struggle. So Laming is probably the best of them. Dutton has disappointed, Brough is too damaged and the other sitting lower house MPs are all backbenchers or over promoted.

  6. John Wayne comes back to life and is running for the PUP!! A name like that has to be worth a few extra votes with older voters especially given the unique campaign slogan opportunities.

    Reminds me of a US congress mid west seat in the 2004 or 06 election which had a candidate Paul Simon running in it. Early on he was polling to win before voters realised that he wasn’t the singer. (Not to be confused with the previous Illinois congressman, Paul Simon who died in 2003)

  7. There’s no way Lamo would get considered as PM. Whilst he might do stuff around the electorate, the only time anyone hears about him is when he’s doing something wrong (like saying annoyed kids in Logan should get a job). What sickens me about him is that he’s seen the suffering refugees go through and yet he’ll happily toe the line of his party to send them back where they came from. He doesn’t represent Bowman, he represents the Liberals (not that I think other parties are any better).

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