Federal 2019 – what are your predictions?


We are now three days away from polls opening in the federal election, and I’ve seen a number of commenters posting their broader predictions about which seats they think will flip on Saturday, so I thought it was time to post a thread for everyone to chip in and put their predictions on the record.

If you have thoughts, please post below which seats you expect to flip – please don’t list all 151 electorates! You can refer to this pendulum as the baseline of where the parties stand before the election.

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  1. LAB 79
    LIB/NAT 63
    GRN 3
    IND 4 (Warringah, Cowper, Farrer, Clark)
    CA 1
    KAP 1

    My bold one: The Greens are going to win Griffith

  2. NSW

    Labor gains: Gilmore, Reid
    Liberal gains: Wentworth, Lindsay

    Labor gains: Fraser, Corangamite, Dunkley, Chisholm
    Liberal gains: Indi
    Toss ups: Flinders, Kooyong, Higgins, La Trobe, Deakins, Wills, Mcnamara

    Labor gains: Forde, Dickson, Petrie
    LNP gain: Herbert
    Toss ups: Flynn, Ryan, Brisbane, Leichardt


    Labor gain: Hasluck
    Toss ups: Swan, Cowan, Pearce, Stirling

    No changes

    Toss ups: Bradden, Bass

    ALP to win the new seat

    Labor to retain both Lingari and Soloman, but it will be close

  3. Like Andrew Jackson, I’m going to keep my analysis only to seats I feel strongly about, or somewhat knowledgeable.

    LNP Gains – Herbert
    ALP Gains – Dickson, Flynn, Bonner, Forde

    Other notes – Leichhardt 2PP to be halved from last election. Small swing to Christensen in Dawson despite ‘Member for Manila’.

    QLD Senate to end up 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 Green, 1 UAP (Palmer will get preferences from LNP voters)

    Tony Abbott to win his seat, narrowly.

    Fraser Anning to get less than 1% of the vote in the QLD Senate.

    ALP to end up around 80 seats at the end of the count, with gains in NSW and Victoria offsetting Coalition gains elsewhere (e.g. Indi, Wentworth). I disagree though that it will be a one-term government, which hasn’t happened in almost 100 years (Scullin). Shorten will be the first PM since Howard to complete a full term, and he will go sometime during the second term to be replaced by Plibersek, after a run of 10-11 years as ALP leader. Remind me in 2023 or 2024 that I made this prediction.

    Morrison will stay on as opposition leader, with no obvious successor (Dutton gone).

  4. Starting with 71 ALP seats as per the pendulum.
    Only two losses for the ALP: Herbert (QLD), Braddon (Tas)
    Twelve gains:
    QLD : Forde, Petrie, Dickson
    NSW : Gilmore, Robertson, Banks, Reid
    VIC : Corangamite, Chisholm, LaTrobe
    WA : Hasluck, Swan
    Coalition gains from Independents: Wentworth, Indi
    Independent gains from Coalition in NSW: Cowper, Farrer and Warringah.
    Others retained: 1 Green, 1 Centre Alliance, 1 KAP, 1 Wilkie IND
    So that makes:
    ALP 81
    COA 63
    IND 4
    GRE` 1
    CEN 1
    KAP 1

  5. So winter has arrived and for some Saturday night will be full of terrors.

    I think the Liberals have won the campaign but they needed to in order to be competitive, and after an underwhelming campaign from the ALP, they finally released an ad (the climate change ad) that might strike a cord.

    There are still a handful of seats that I consider 50:50. I’ve placed a * next to those seats

    Headline prediction

    ALP 84 seats
    LNP 57 seats
    Independents 7
    Greens 3

    ALP gains:
    Victoria – Corangamite, Chisholm, La Trobe, Deakin & Higgins*
    NSW – Gimore
    Queensland – Forde, Flynn, Petrie, Dickson, Bonner & Dawson
    SA – Boothby
    WA – Hasluck, Pearce, Swan, Stirling & Canning

    Dunkley and Fraser are counted as ALP seats, as is the new seat of Bean.

    LNP gains:
    Victoria – Indi*
    NSW – Lindsay*
    Tasmania – Braddon* & Bass*

    Greens gain
    Victoria – Macnamara* & Kooyong*

    Indi gains
    Cowper, Warringah & Ferrer*

    Toss ups
    Higgins – Looks like being a three corner contest between the Liberals hoping Malvern/Toorak holds, against the Greens who despite losing their strongest booth are polling strongly and probably the strongest ALP candidate in decades.

    I’m putting the ALP slightly ahead of the Greens due to the loss of Windsor and the adding of Murrumbeena coupled with the ALP enjoying an improved performance around Ashburton in the recent state election.

    Indi – Think the Liberals will gain Indi but the pro-Gowen candidate comes across as a solid candidate.

    Lindsay – Would think this will be a ALP hold but there has been plenty of noise pointing to a strong showing from the Liberals.

    Braddon – Same as Lindsay.

    Bass – Same as Braddon and Lindsay.

    Macnamara – On paper this looks like a ALP hold but with the inclusion of Windsor, and the Greens running the only previous candidate combined with the Liberals being on the nose and with the ALP’s tax policies then I can see this coming down to the Greens against Liberals.

    Kooyong – On paper should be a Liberal hold, however with three solid candidates against Frydenberg who has run one of the most aggressive campaigns in the seat’s history points to this either being a boil over or Frydenberg needs to not panic so much.

    Ferrer – The locals showed in the last NSW state poll an unexpected level of anger in part due to what they see as water mismanagement and with a high profile mayor running against Ley this could go indi but Ley enjoys a substantial margin.

    Wentworth – The Liberals are talking up their chances so it could be close, I think Phelps will be returned but the Liberals seem to be doing okay in NSW.

    Flinders – This seems to be out of the Liberals and ALP, with the locals being unhappy with Hunt but at the same time there is a large population of retirees particularly around Mornington, Mt Martha, Rosebud, Rye and Domania, so this could be a seat where the ALP’s franking credits and negative gearing chances could hurt their chances.

    Menzies – Seems to have slipped of the radar but could this be the case of a long serving MP staying one term too long.

    Casey – Looks to be right in the firing line but this part of Melbourne held up okay for the Liberals in last year’s state poll and its demographics are more in line with Morrison although it voted strongly yes in the gay marriage vote. as did the seat of Menizes.

  6. There would appear to be a strong and visible shift towards the Greens in Ryan. It is unlikely to be sufficient to bridge the 5% difference between Greens and ALP from 2016 but it is still very obvious.

  7. The Greens are putting in a VERY spirited effort in Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith. Big demographic changes in the inner city means one of these seats could be a nail biter.

  8. Yes

    The green effort in Ryan is significant. Just 10-12 years ago the greens did not have the people to hand out HTVs and their candidates barely knew they were on the ballot paper.

    Now they have more workers on site than ALP and the LNP.

  9. 85-90 seats to Labor. 50-55 Seats to Coalition
    VIC Labor to gain: Chisholm, Fraser, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Flinders.
    NSW Labor to gain: Robertson, Gilmore.
    Dutton to lose Dickson. That would mean lots of other seats to fall before it.
    Big loss in WA.
    I don’t think the Liberals will gain both Braddon and Bass, one or none IMO. Nor anything like Solomon or Lingiari.
    I think Warringah, Ferrer, Cowper will go to Indis. Mallee maybe…
    Macnamara, Kooyong, Higgins to the Greens. I’d put it in Ryan or Griffith as a potential fifth. I can’t see them winning in Cooper or Wills, come back next time…

  10. Zac

    I think you are pretty spot on and agree with most of your comments.
    Flinders may be confounded by the banks factor.

    Careful making predictions in Qld because there is NOT any typical seat. Forde, petrie and Bonner and Longman will travel in the same direction as Dickson, but Brisbane, ryan and griffith have a different trajectory altogether, Flynn also is different as are all of the FNQ seats which need to be treated as mini by elections rather than national swings.

    I honestly have no idea about WA but would put my money on Wyatt hanging on in Hasluck – against the trend.

    Wills is only really in the running because there will not be any Lib presence on site.

  11. A new Ipsos poll has 2PP at 51-49 in favour of Labor. The primary vote for Coalition has climbed fairly substantially to 39 per cent. Labor dropped to 33 per cent (although this is inconsistent compared to other polls produced this week that have Labor hovering around 36 per cent).

    If the result on Saturday reflects the Ipsos poll, then I can’t see Labor crossing the finish line. It’s nearly impossible for any party to take enough seats with a primary vote as low as 33 per cent, even with fairly strong preference flows.

    Still, this is just one poll, and it is incongruous with other data produced this week from News Poll and Galaxy.

  12. As a general rule – Ipsos records the Greens PV too high and the ALP too low. Possibly polling error as it’s online rather than phone etc.

    Last prediction before disappearing for a while – Labor narrow majority, roughly 79-80 seats.

    See you all on the other side.

  13. Maverick

    I made those WA and QLD comments, mainly because although I believe there will be a swing in Brisbane and Perth, I am not very familiar with those states, hence my vagueness. I agree about the suburban seats on a different direction to the inner city seats.

    I am on the other hand familiar with Flinders, I think Banks preferences will flow to Labor, getting them across the line. I don’t think she will get through to 2CP.

    Agree about Wills.

    Interesting election nonetheless…

  14. Another prediction. Coalition percentage of female MPs goes up post election. Retiring males replaced by females in Mallee and Moncrieff (though opposite in Ryan). Bishop replaced by a woman, O’Dwyer by a woman. If they hold Reid that’s another make replaced by a. female. One possibly two new females in the Tasmanian Senate team. New female in number 2 spot in Queensland, in number 1 NT spot and number 1 NSW spot. If they win Lindsay its another female (plys Soloman, Bass, Lingari).

    Lastly of the marginals and likely losses more females than males.

  15. Bugsy

    Ipsos always underestimates Labor’s PV and overestimates the Greens PV. It has labor on 33 and Greens on 13. Take ~3-4 off the Greens Primary and give it to labor and you get the more likely figure of ALP 36/37 GRN 9/10

  16. Further to my point. In Antony Green’s key seat list. 24 are held by Coalition men, 8 by women.

    So add that factor to gaining more females in safe seats and the senate, plus women contesting Lindsay, Bass
    Soloman, Lingari, Mayo then in percentage terms the Coalition will have more women for sure post election

  17. Hi! My predictions:
    Flip to Labor: Boothby, Chisholm, Corangamite, Dawson, Deakin, Dickson, Dunkley, Forde, Gilmore, Hasluck, La Trobe, Pearce, Reid
    Flip to Coalition: Wentworth, Herbert
    Flip to Independent: Cowper, Farrer, Warringah

  18. Expat, Boatswain1025

    … I do hope you are both correct. I try to keep my personal opinion to a minimum on these forums, however I do not believe Coalition deserve another term.

  19. My prediction would be Labor WIN.

    Labor – 87 Seats (+17)
    Liberal – 52 Seats (-21)
    Greens – 2 Seats (+1)
    Centre Alliance – 2 Seats (+1)
    Katter’s Australian – 1 Seat (0)
    Nationals WA – 1 Seat (+1) *Note* WA Nats are not in the Coalition
    Independents – 6 Seats (0)

    Labor Gains for Coalition:
    NSW – Banks, Gilmore, Robertson
    VIC – Casey, Deakin, Dunkley, La Trobe
    QLD – Dawson, Dickson, Forde, Petrie
    WA – Canning, Hasluck, Pearce, Swan, Stirling
    SA – Boothby

    Independent Gains from Coalition:
    Cowper, Flinders, Warringah

    Centre Alliance Gains from Coalition:

    Greens Gains from Labor:

    Nationals WA Gains for Liberal:

    Liberal Gain from Labor:

    Statewide Swings:

    ACT – 7% to Labor
    NT – 4% to Country Liberals
    TAS – 0.5% to Labor
    SA – 1.5% to Labor
    WA – 7% to Labor
    QLD – 3% to Labor
    VIC – 5% to Labor
    NSW – 2.5% to Labor

  20. Ridiculous that people keeping giving the ALP Dickson, Dutton will not ,lose, absolute moral, that Dutton will hold, even yesterday’s Galaxy poll proved this. In saying that, let me now work on my actual predictions now I’ve vented 🙂

  21. ALP – 82, Coalition – 59, Greens – 2, Katter – 1, CA – 1, Ind – 6
    (Greens probably best placed to pick up in Wills or Macnamara. I’ll go with Melbourne + Wills)
    (Independent – Clark, Wentworth, Warringah, Indi, Cowper, Farrer)

    NSW LNP – 2, ALP – 2, Grn – 1, UAP -1 (the last seat may be tight against One Nation & SFF)
    Vic LNP – 2, ALP – 2, Grn – 1, DHJP – 1 (Hinch defeats Palmer candidate)
    Qld LNP -2, ALP – 2, ON – 1, UAP -1 (Last two seats b/w ON, UAP, LNP (3) & Grn)
    WA Lib – 3, ALP – 2, Grn -1 (Greens win 5th seat. Last seat is b/w Lib (3) Vs ON Vs UAP)
    SA Lib -2, ALP -2, CA – 1, Grn – 1 (battle for last 2 seats b/w CA & Grn & Lib (3))
    Tas ALP – 2, Lib -2, Grn -1, JLN – 1 (Lambie should defeat ALP (3))
    ACT ALP – 1, Lib – 1
    NT ALP – 1 , CLP – 1

    Coalition – 15, ALP – 14, Grn – 5, UAP – 2, ON – 1, CA – 1, DHJP – 1, JLN – 1

  22. Anyone predicting 80+ seats to labor is really saying this isn’t going to be close. This seems/feels a little out of step. All the noise sounds different. Yet there is still this view, belief, loud opinion.

    The real question is how BS & his bunch of fools have managed to stuff this all up ??. No one is asking the question of how Labor have FAILED to win this by 20+ seats. What would Rudd have achieved against this govt if he had faced it in 2007 ?. What does this say ??.

    In business & especially in sales it is fatal to presume to know what is right for your customers, what they need, & especially what they should have (& be happy with). With their inclination toward command economics the left is always vulnerable to this mindset . However the belief that they KNOW, KNOW BEST, KNOW ALL, is now driving the country towards disaster. The election is just another foretaste of what is ahead.

    The passing of Bob Hawke will serve as a reminder of what GREAT leaders do. Richo said last night that Hawke never came to meetings telling people what to do. Hawke always wanted to know what others thought , & why. There was a constant curiosity ,& inquiry, coming from the ultimate intellectual mastery of coming from a place of NOT KNOWING ANYTHING.
    Arrogance is a weakness, & humility is a strength. Hawke was brilliant in many, may ways, but especially because he always maintained an intellectual humility.

  23. Winediamond
    I think the ALP campaign team has performed really poorly, it is as though they believed their own press and have gone through the motions, the Liberals were always going to fight tooth and nail to just be competitive and the ALP needed to be proactive but instead they have been surprisingly passive, either the polling has them so far ahead or they are clueless on how to campaign.

  24. My approach in assessing whether ALP will get over the line is to look at how many seats they lose out of those of their seats considered in play: Braddon, Bass, Herbert, Lindsay, Solomon – if they hold all of those seats or at least three of them then we have a change of government – if they lose all of them then it depends how big the swing to the ALP is in Victoria, WA and Brisbane as to whether they can form government

  25. I think this will be a much tighter election than is generally expected. A month ago I would have thought Labor with 85 plus seats with an outside chance of 90. Now more likely 75 to 80.

    There is a path for a coalition win (or at least a minority Govt) hold onto seats like Reid, Flynn, Capricornia, win a few like Braddon, Lindsay, Herbert, Solomon. Fall over the line in Congramite, deakin, Latrobe, Gilmore etc. Win Indi, Wentworth, Farrar. Minimise losses to Dunkley, Chisolm, Swan, Dixson. May be get a shock result like Bass or lingari

    Everything seems to be moving towards the coalition and away from labor. The polls, betting odds etc are much better for the coalition than there were a month / fortnight / week ago. The trend is the coalitions friend and the ALP’s curse.

    If UAP mans the booths and preferences flow to Coalition more strongly than expected then we have the 1993 election all over again (albeit it was green preferences and labor then). Maybe we will look back and see the franking credit and negative gearing policies as Australia’s second longest political suicide note.

    It is hard to imagine Katter supporting labour. Willkie might be more prepared to work with Morrison than Abbott. Sharkie represents a seat that is more coalition friendly than labour. Oakshot – who knows. Mack in Farrar is more likely to go with Coalition than ALP. So you may get a reverse 2010 result coalition less seats but the indies support them.

    That said when it is all and done BS to be the next PM.

    Finally – a bit thanks to Ban for the mountain of work he does on this site and for tolerating our rants / flights of fantasy / what ifs and gently moderating us.

    Unfortunately my financial position does not permit me to provide financial support for this website (at the moment and will hopefully change soon) but for those who haven’t donated and can afford to – please donate.

    THANKS BEN – keep up the great work


  26. LNP starting with 75, ALP 71 (Dunkley included) crossbench 5.
    I’ve stolen another poster’s format. Also on toss ups I will come in and make a call on Friday night/Saturday breakfast.
    Labor gains: Gilmore
    Ind gains: Farrer, Cowper
    Liberal gains: Lindsay, Wentworth.
    Labor gain: Forde, Flynn, Leichardt
    LNP gain: Herbert, Longman
    Greens gain: Griffith
    Labor gains: Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm, Casey
    LNP gain: Indi
    Greens gain: Higgins
    No changes
    Labor gain Hasluck, Swan, Pearce, Stirling
    LNP gain: none
    LNP Gain: Braddon
    No change
    LNP gains: Soloman
    A few changes. I must admit I think I am under estimatung the LNP but Bob’s death scaled back my LNP gains.
    Net Labor gain of 6 seats. LNP net loss of 8. 2 new Greens, 2 new Indy mps, but loss of Wentworth and Indi to Libs.

    So 77 Labor, 68 LNP, 7 crossbench

    Originally I had LNP holding Leichardt, Casey, Stirling, Higgins, plus gaining Lingari, Bass and maybe Pearce Totally different result. Mind you north my north Brisbane and NSW calls might under estimate Labor.

  27. I don’t see your numbers adding up Queensland Observer – the crossbench should be 8, by your own figures:

    3 Grn (Melbourne, Higgins, Griffith) + 1 KAP + 1 CA + 3 Ind (Clark, Farrer, Cowper)

  28. My prediction:

    ALP 81 LNP 65 GRN 1 IND 4

    Labor gains Reid, Gilmore, Dickson, Forde, Petrie, Chisholm, La Trobe, Hasluck, Swan (in additional to the already notionally Labor Dunkley and Corangamite).

    Coalition gains Indi, Wentworth.

    Oakeshott gains Cowper.

  29. Pencil
    I’m tempted to agree with you . However the old salesman in me finds it difficult. True that the sales team have been ordinary, & too many went MIA. However the product, the message, & the image was off, confused, flawed, & deficient. SO perhaps it wasn’t al their fault, that being said most would starve if they had to work for a living !!.
    The customers (voters) just aren’t buying, well not like Labor needs, so the numbers aren’t going to appear. It all looks like it might end up being pretty, messy, difficult & uncomfortable. Shorten will still get PM, BUT FOR HOW LONG ???

    They are SUCH a UNITED team !!!

  30. ALP – 83
    Coalition (LIB/NAT/LNP/CLP) – 61
    GRN – 2
    CA – 1
    KAP – 1
    IND – 3

    COA > ALP:
    Page, Gilmore, Robertson, Chisholm, Corangamite, La Trobe, Hasluck, Swan, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Leichhardt, Petrie,

    COA > IND
    Cowper, Farrer

    IND > COA
    Indi, Wentworth

    COA > GRN

    ALP > COA

  31. My forecast: ALP – 78 Coalition -66 Green – 1 Centre Alliance – 1 Katter -1. Ind – 4

    It’s a Labor majority government propped by a traumatic swing against the Coalition in Victoria.

    VIC:I think Labor will net at least five Victorian seats from the Coalition: Chisholm, Dunkley, Corangamite, La Trobe and the symbolic scalp of Greg Hunt in Flinders. Coalition regains Indi.
    SA: no change
    TAS: no change
    NT: no change
    ACT: Labor to win the newly created seat of Bean
    NSW: Coalition takes Lindsay, but loses Gilmore and Robertson to ALP. Coalition also loses Cowper, Wahrringa and Farrer to independents. Coalition regains Wentworth
    Qld: Labor gains Dickson, Forde and Petrie. LNP gains Herbert
    WA: Labor gains Swan and Hasluck

  32. Prediction. The result will be similar to NSW with incumbents doing well on both sides and not many seats changing hands.
    Swings to the ALP will be stronger in the inner city, and this could prove to be a silver lining for the coalition with the ALP not gaining much bang for its buck, especially in Victoria.

    ALP Gains: Dunkley, Chisholm, Corrangamite, Gilmore, Robertson, Forde, Swan
    LNP Gains from ALP: Lindsay
    Ind Gains from LNP: Farrer, Warringah
    LNP gains from Ind: Indi, Wentworth

    So yeah, I think it will be very close with the LNP likely to narrowly retain a swag of Qld seats plus Latrobe, Deakin, Hasluck, Pearce & Stirling. In WA, Swan will be the one to narrowly fall because of its more inner urban composition. Likewise I think the ALP will retain Bass, Braddon, Solomon & Herbert in the 1-2% range.

    Totals: ALP 76, LNP 69, Ind/Oth 6.

  33. Labor Gain from Coalition:
    Corangamite, Forde, Gilmore, Robertson, Petrie (not confident about this one though), Hasluck, Chisholm, La Trobe, Swan, Dunkley

    IND gain from Coalition:
    Cowper, Farrer, Warringah

    Coalition gain from IND:
    Wentworth, Indi

    Coalition gain from Labor:
    Lindsay, Herbert

    I believe this comes out to ALP 78, LNP 66, GRN 1, CA 1, KAP 1, IND 4

  34. 91 ALP 9 Ind/Grn/Oth 51 LNP.

    5 LNP seats fall in Qld
    3 LNP seats fall to ALP in NSW, Wentworth and Warringah cancel each other out – ie 1 IND and 1 LNP, Cowper falls to IND
    7 LNP seats fall in Vic
    2 LNP seats fall in SA
    3 fall in WA

    The Bob Hawke effect adds a bit over 1% to what otherwise would have been the 2PP and ALP gets about 52.7%.

  35. Im going to start West first as they are usually last….list potential surprise seats for each state.

    ALP gains: Hasluck, Swan, Stirling
    Potential: Pearce
    SA – no change but Boothby close
    Potential: Grey
    NT & ACT – no change
    Lib gain: Braddon
    Potential: Bass
    ALP gain: Chisolm, Corangamite, Deakin, Dunkley, La Trobe. Casey close.
    Indi to remain Indie but line ball
    Green gain: Higgins
    Potential: Flinders & Mallee to Indie (big swings in Kooyong & Menzies but holds)
    ALP gain: Gilmore, Reid, Robertson
    Lib gain: Lindsey, Wentworth
    IND gain: Cowper, Warringah
    Potential: Farrar
    QLD ……..always so difficult because well it is QLD!
    ALP gain: Dickson, Capricornia, Forde, Petrie
    Lib gain: Herbert, Longman
    Potential: Leichhardt

    ALP wins in 80-82 range

  36. Seats I think change hands:
    ALP Gain: La Trobe, Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, Fraser, Deakin
    GRN Gain: Macnamara, Higgins, Wills
    ALP Gain: Gilmore, Robertson
    COAL Gain: Lindsay, Wentworth
    IND Gain: Warringah, Farrer, Cowper
    ALP Gain: Dickson, Forde, Petrie, Capricornia
    GRN Gain: Brisbane
    KAP Gain: Herbert
    ALP Gain: Hasluck, Swan,

  37. Well, almost everybody got it wrong (me included).

    The one component that we all overlooked, is the voting bloc that got the government re-elected.

    The results so far from the electoral commission web site, show that the liberal party (excluding the lnp and the nuts) got about 28% of the first preferences, of the votes cast.

    See https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-NAT.htm

    But, what got the government re-elected, is the preferences from the Apathy voting bloc.

    Only 75.98% voted, which means that about 24% did not vote; the Apathy voting bloc, whose preferences went to the government.

    So, with the lnp coalition (liberal party + lnp + the nuts + NT liberals) at 41.39% of 75.98%, they came in at 31.45%, and, the preferences from the Apathy voting bloc, got the government over the line.


    That is why almost everyone, including the professional pollsters, got it completely wrong – we did not take into account, the support for the government, by the increasingly powerful Apathy voting bloc.

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