Queensland state redistribution – final boundaries released

The redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries concluded last Friday, and I’ve now finished my map of the electorates for download. You can download the map to use in Google Earth here.

I’ve also updated my calculations of the margins in each seat, which are at the end of this post. I estimate that there are 47 Labor seats, 44 LNP seats, as well as one KAP seat and one independent seat. On my first draft, I estimated 48 Labor seats and 43 LNP seats – unfortunately I appear to have made an error calculating the margin in Pumicestone, which resulted in me predicting it was a very marginal Labor seat – I now think it’s a marginal LNP seat, despite no change in boundaries. I feel confident this is the right result, although it doesn’t make much difference when the seat is as marginal as Pumicestone is.

As part of my calculations I’ve assigned every polling place to a new seat, and split up the special votes between the new seats, and this will be used as the basis for my guide to the Queensland election, due later this year.

Seat Margin Seat Margin
Mansfield ALP vs LNP 50.6% Whitsunday LNP vs ALP 50.7%
Bundaberg ALP vs LNP 50.8% Hill LNP vs KAP 50.8%
Maryborough ALP vs LNP 51% Pumicestone LNP vs ALP 50.8%
Mount Ommaney ALP vs LNP 51.1% Glass House LNP vs ALP 51.4%
Springwood ALP vs LNP 51.5% Toowoomba North LNP vs ALP 51.6%
Mundingburra ALP vs LNP 51.6% Redlands LNP vs ALP 51.8%
Cooper ALP vs LNP 53% Aspley LNP vs ALP 52.5%
Barron River ALP vs LNP 53.3% Bonney LNP vs ALP 52.7%
McConnel ALP vs LNP 53.5% Everton LNP vs ALP 52.7%
Keppel ALP vs LNP 53.9% Gaven LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Mirani ALP vs LNP 54.1% Maiwar LNP vs ALP 52.8%
Ferny Grove ALP vs LNP 54.4% Chatsworth LNP vs ALP 53.5%
MacAlister ALP vs LNP 54.9% Hinchinbrook LNP vs ALP 53.7%
Pine Rivers ALP vs LNP 55.1% Caloundra LNP vs ALP 54.7%
Greenslopes ALP vs LNP 55.3% Theodore LNP vs ALP 55.2%
Townsville ALP vs LNP 55.6% Lockyer LNP vs ON 55.2%
Stretton ALP vs LNP 55.7% Burdekin LNP vs ALP 55.4%
Thuringowa ALP vs LNP 56.1% Burleigh LNP vs ALP 55.6%
Bulimba ALP vs LNP 56.1% Clayfield LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Capalaba ALP vs LNP 56.2% Currumbin LNP vs ALP 55.7%
Logan ALP vs LNP 56.3% Oodgeroo LNP vs ALP 56.1%
Murrumba ALP vs LNP 56.5% Coomera LNP vs ALP 56.1%
Miller ALP vs LNP 56.7% Hervey Bay LNP vs ALP 56.6%
Cook ALP vs LNP 56.8% Noosa LNP vs GRN 57.3%
Cairns ALP vs LNP 57.4% Burnett LNP vs ALP 58.1%
Kurwongbah ALP vs LNP 57.5% Gympie LNP vs ALP 58.1%
Redcliffe ALP vs LNP 57.6% Moggill LNP vs ALP 58.2%
Algester ALP vs LNP 57.7% Kawana LNP vs ALP 59%
Toohey ALP vs LNP 57.8% Toowoomba South LNP vs ALP 59.1%
Bancroft ALP vs LNP 57.9% Southport LNP vs ALP 59.9%
Nudgee ALP vs LNP 58.6% Mudgeeraba LNP vs ALP 59.9%
Stafford ALP vs LNP 58.7% Maroochydore LNP vs ALP 60.5%
Ipswich West ALP vs LNP 59% Mermaid Beach LNP vs ALP 61%
Jordan ALP vs LNP 59.6% Gregory LNP vs ALP 61.6%
Lytton ALP vs LNP 59.7% Scenic Rim LNP vs ALP 61.7%
Mackay ALP vs LNP 59.7% Buderim LNP vs ALP 61.9%
Sandgate ALP vs LNP 59.8% Callide LNP vs PUP 62.2%
Morayfield ALP vs LNP 61.5% Broadwater LNP vs ALP 62.8%
Gladstone ALP vs IND 62.6% Warrego LNP vs ALP 65%
Mulgrave ALP vs LNP 62.8% Condamine LNP vs ALP 66.8%
South Brisbane ALP vs LNP 63.5% Nanango LNP vs ALP 67.9%
Rockhampton ALP vs LNP 63.9% Southern Downs LNP vs ALP 69.2%
Waterford ALP vs LNP 64.4% Surfers Paradise LNP vs ALP 69.6%
Ipswich ALP vs LNP 64.7% Ninderry LNP vs ALP 71.4%
Inala ALP vs LNP 69.7%
Woodridge ALP vs LNP 74.1% Nicklin IND vs LNP 59%
Bundamba ALP vs LNP 74.5% Traeger KAP vs LNP 65.8%

About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.