Queensland state redistribution – final boundaries released

The redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries concluded last Friday, and I’ve now finished my map of the electorates for download. You can download the map to use in Google Earth here.

I’ve also updated my calculations of the margins in each seat, which are at the end of this post. I estimate that there are 47 Labor seats, 44 LNP seats, as well as one KAP seat and one independent seat. On my first draft, I estimated 48 Labor seats and 43 LNP seats – unfortunately I appear to have made an error calculating the margin in Pumicestone, which resulted in me predicting it was a very marginal Labor seat – I now think it’s a marginal LNP seat, despite no change in boundaries. I feel confident this is the right result, although it doesn’t make much difference when the seat is as marginal as Pumicestone is.

As part of my calculations I’ve assigned every polling place to a new seat, and split up the special votes between the new seats, and this will be used as the basis for my guide to the Queensland election, due later this year.

SeatMarginSeatMargin
MansfieldALP vs LNP 50.6%WhitsundayLNP vs ALP 50.7%
BundabergALP vs LNP 50.8%HillLNP vs KAP 50.8%
MaryboroughALP vs LNP 51%PumicestoneLNP vs ALP 50.8%
Mount OmmaneyALP vs LNP 51.1%Glass HouseLNP vs ALP 51.4%
SpringwoodALP vs LNP 51.5%Toowoomba NorthLNP vs ALP 51.6%
MundingburraALP vs LNP 51.6%RedlandsLNP vs ALP 51.8%
CooperALP vs LNP 53%AspleyLNP vs ALP 52.5%
Barron RiverALP vs LNP 53.3%BonneyLNP vs ALP 52.7%
McConnelALP vs LNP 53.5%EvertonLNP vs ALP 52.7%
KeppelALP vs LNP 53.9%GavenLNP vs ALP 52.8%
MiraniALP vs LNP 54.1%MaiwarLNP vs ALP 52.8%
Ferny GroveALP vs LNP 54.4%ChatsworthLNP vs ALP 53.5%
MacAlisterALP vs LNP 54.9%HinchinbrookLNP vs ALP 53.7%
Pine RiversALP vs LNP 55.1%CaloundraLNP vs ALP 54.7%
GreenslopesALP vs LNP 55.3%TheodoreLNP vs ALP 55.2%
TownsvilleALP vs LNP 55.6%LockyerLNP vs ON 55.2%
StrettonALP vs LNP 55.7%BurdekinLNP vs ALP 55.4%
ThuringowaALP vs LNP 56.1%BurleighLNP vs ALP 55.6%
BulimbaALP vs LNP 56.1%ClayfieldLNP vs ALP 55.7%
CapalabaALP vs LNP 56.2%CurrumbinLNP vs ALP 55.7%
LoganALP vs LNP 56.3%OodgerooLNP vs ALP 56.1%
MurrumbaALP vs LNP 56.5%CoomeraLNP vs ALP 56.1%
MillerALP vs LNP 56.7%Hervey BayLNP vs ALP 56.6%
CookALP vs LNP 56.8%NoosaLNP vs GRN 57.3%
CairnsALP vs LNP 57.4%BurnettLNP vs ALP 58.1%
KurwongbahALP vs LNP 57.5%GympieLNP vs ALP 58.1%
RedcliffeALP vs LNP 57.6%MoggillLNP vs ALP 58.2%
AlgesterALP vs LNP 57.7%KawanaLNP vs ALP 59%
TooheyALP vs LNP 57.8%Toowoomba SouthLNP vs ALP 59.1%
BancroftALP vs LNP 57.9%SouthportLNP vs ALP 59.9%
NudgeeALP vs LNP 58.6%MudgeerabaLNP vs ALP 59.9%
StaffordALP vs LNP 58.7%MaroochydoreLNP vs ALP 60.5%
Ipswich WestALP vs LNP 59%Mermaid BeachLNP vs ALP 61%
JordanALP vs LNP 59.6%GregoryLNP vs ALP 61.6%
LyttonALP vs LNP 59.7%Scenic RimLNP vs ALP 61.7%
MackayALP vs LNP 59.7%BuderimLNP vs ALP 61.9%
SandgateALP vs LNP 59.8%CallideLNP vs PUP 62.2%
MorayfieldALP vs LNP 61.5%BroadwaterLNP vs ALP 62.8%
GladstoneALP vs IND 62.6%WarregoLNP vs ALP 65%
MulgraveALP vs LNP 62.8%CondamineLNP vs ALP 66.8%
South BrisbaneALP vs LNP 63.5%NanangoLNP vs ALP 67.9%
RockhamptonALP vs LNP 63.9%Southern DownsLNP vs ALP 69.2%
WaterfordALP vs LNP 64.4%Surfers ParadiseLNP vs ALP 69.6%
IpswichALP vs LNP 64.7%NinderryLNP vs ALP 71.4%
InalaALP vs LNP 69.7%
WoodridgeALP vs LNP 74.1%NicklinIND vs LNP 59%
BundambaALP vs LNP 74.5%TraegerKAP vs LNP 65.8%
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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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