Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Tim Pallas retired as Treasurer of Victoria and Member for Werribee in December 2024.
Margin – ALP 10.9%
Incumbent MP
Tim Pallas, since 2014. Previously member for Tarneit, 2006-2014.
Geography
Western Victoria. Werribee covers the suburbs of Werribee, Werribee South and Wyndham Vale, and areas to the west of Werribee. The entire electorate lies in Wyndham City.
History
Werribee previously existed as an electorate from 1976 to 2002.
Werribee was won in 1976 by Liberal candidate Neville Hudson, but he lost in 1979 to the ALP’s Ken Coghill.
Coghill held Werribee from 1979 to 1996, and served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly from 1988 to 1992.
Labor’s Mary Gillett won Werribee in 1996, and was re-elected in 1999.
In 2002, Werribee was replaced by Tarneit, and Gillett was re-elected in the newly named seat.
Tarneit was won in 2006 by Labor candidate Tim Pallas, and he was re-elected in 2010.
Werribee was restored in 2014, and Pallas shifted to the restored seat, winning re-election comfortably. Pallas was re-elected in 2018 and 2022. Pallas served as Treasurer from Labor’s return to power in 2014 until his retirement at the end of 2024.
- Rifai Raheem (Greens)
- Steve Murphy (Liberal)
- Matthew Emerson (Family First)
- Xavier Menta (Legalise Cannabis)
- Munish Joshi (Independent)
- Sue Munro (Victorian Socialists)
- Shohre Mansouri Jajee (Animal Justice)
- Kodei Mulcahy (Independent)
- Aidan McLindon (Independent)
- Paul Hopper (Independent)
- John Lister (Labor)
- Ajiz Moinuddin (Independent)
Assessment
Werribee is a reasonably safe Labor seat but if the party is doing quite badly it’s the kind of seat that could fall at a by-election.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim Pallas | Labor | 17,512 | 45.4 | -0.6 |
Mia Shaw | Liberal | 9,779 | 25.3 | +8.7 |
Jack Boddeke | Greens | 2,613 | 6.8 | +0.3 |
Paul Hopper | Independent | 2,278 | 5.9 | +5.9 |
Sue Munro | Victorian Socialists | 1,391 | 3.6 | +3.6 |
Matthew Emerson | Family First | 964 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
Kathryn Breakwell | Democratic Labour | 767 | 2.0 | -1.2 |
Josh Segrave | Animal Justice | 730 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
Patricia Wicks | Derryn Hinch’s Justice | 709 | 1.8 | +1.8 |
Mark Strother | Freedom Party | 663 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
Trevor Collins | Transport Matters | 360 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
Prashant Tandon | New Democrats | 319 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
Karen Hogan | Health Australia | 260 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
Patrizia Barcatta | Independent | 213 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
Heni Kwan | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | +0.1 |
Informal | 4,156 | 9.7 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
Tim Pallas | Labor | 23,517 | 60.9 | -2.4 |
Mia Shaw | Liberal | 15,086 | 39.1 | +2.4 |
Booths in Werribee have been divided into three parts. Most of the electorate lies in a small cluster around Werribee, Wyndham Vale and Hoppers Crossing. Polling places in this area have been divided into Werribee North and Werribee South. The small number of polling places outside this area have been grouped as “Outer”.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 61.3% in Werribee South to 64.7% in Werribee North.
Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
Werribee South | 61.3 | 5,374 | 15.7 |
Outer | 62.3 | 2,560 | 7.5 |
Werribee North | 64.7 | 2,347 | 6.8 |
Pre-poll | 58.9 | 20,249 | 57.6 |
Other votes | 63.6 | 4,371 | 12.5 |
Election results in Werribee at the 2022 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Slightly bad news for Labor here, they drew 11 on the ballot (out of 12) while the Libs drew the 2nd spot.
So Labor won’t benefit from the donkey vote either.
Presumably the Kodei Mulcahy who is running as an independent is the same person described by some media organisations as ‘celebrity pest’ and ‘celebrity stalker’. This might add some colour and movement to the campaign.
Willing to tip the Liberals here, and I don’t think they’re out of the contest in Prahran either
Given this threat of realignment in working-class outer suburbs, is it time for Labor to pivot back towards its base in the North and West?
The proposed SRL East has been a political masterstroke over the last two elections by drawing the Eastern Suburbs into the Labor fold and freezing the Coalition out. However, with an increasing perception of budget issues perhaps it’s time to pause the project and focus on more affordable infrastructure projects in the West:
– Airport Rail (would help to secure Niddrie and Sunbury)
– Melton Electrification (Melton, maybe also Eureka and Ripon)
– Wyndham Vale Electrification (Point Cook and Werribee, as well as Bellarine and South Barwon)
Labor can afford to lose all but 6 seats in the South and East (Albert Park/Carrum/Clarinda/Dandenong/Mulgrave/Oakleigh) and still form a minority government with the Greens, although there’s many other seats here that could be sandbagged.
The goverment has generally won kudos for its infrastructure projects, but it needs to challenge the perception that it is bankrupting the state. Focusing on smaller, cheaper projects might help them to do so, while winning over areas that have been continually neglected.
It’ll also be interesting to see if there’s an electoral payoff in the areas along the Metro Tunnel lines (Sunbury/Cranbourne/Pakenham) once it is complete.
@Angas Metro 2 would significantly increase the speed and frequency of trains to Werribee. The Greens at least have been pushing for that as a priority over SRL (and it was in the PTV plan before it). That plan also included linking the Werribee line to Wyndham Vale station with a stop at Black Forest Road. Labor should consider dusting those off
@Maxim – NT election Labor was wiped out everywhere they couldn’t sandbag with a very strong and culturally connected local MP so it’s inconclusive.
QLD regional centres have indeed turned against Labor in a big way. Resources industry workers turning against Labor is a different realignment that’s pretty well baked in. The exceptions are WA 2021 landslide and the Hunter still being a decent mix, but much more marginal than it used to be.
The one I’m talking about is outer suburban working class and lower middle class voters turning against Labor (which has been speculated about since at least the SSM plebiscite in 2017) while affluent urban voters abandon the Liberals. The latter part is observable with the Teals, and the seats Victorian Labor gained in 2018 and held in 2022, but the former hasn’t led to many flips (just swings), and NSW Labor proved they can still pick up seats like Penrith and Camden. Still it can’t be ruled out.
I agree Angas. It’s too late to halt the SRL East, but Labor should do the following as a reset even if it pushes SRL East back just a year or two:
– Move airport rail back to its original 2029/30 target now that the dispute with the airport is sorted (if it opens before 2030 it would also help them that year too).
– Melton electrification as absolute priority
– Announce SRL West to be the second SRL stage to commence instead of north, build most of it elevated to reduce cost and time, and it can actually have a completion probably even before SRL East since it’ll be so much simpler. It also connects straight to the Metro Tunnel and Airport Rail that way.
That’ll show that the west is being prioritised, and like you say, deliver quick wins for less money.
The problem is that a lot of these infrastructure projects have been promised by Labor in the past, and then delayed or forgotten.
Melton electrification has been promised for 15-20 years, the Werribee-WV extension never happened, Airport Link has been start-stopped forever.
If Labor tried to push these projects again, voters would have every right to feel cynical about it being “just another empty promise like all the other times”
One thing I’m wondering is if the Wyndham Vale line could have been electrified from the start instead of VLine first and then electrification down the line…. whenever that happens. I believe the last VLine to Metro changeover was for the Sunbury line? Oh and Cragieburn before that.
Seems like Victorian Socialists are doing some large doorknocks here based on their social media posts, wonder if it’ll be enough to really affect the vote. I imagine it’s mostly in preparation for the federal election.
They have the opposite problem to Clive Palmer, strong ground game but no real presence in the wider discourse or visibility apart from having 10 angry people on every booth come election day
My inner North dwelling niece describes the VSP as ‘creepy’ due to their proclivity of accosting women at tram stops. For what it is worth, she thinks Peter Khalil is ‘gone’ in Wills from what she sees and hears.
Since the voice I’m becoming skeptical of the impact of ground game, my hometown of Geelong was plastered in ‘yes’ paraphernalia and I think in the end both Corio and Corangamite went no by at least 5%. It probably has a larger impact on stuff like council elections where some people might just vote for the guy with all the signs up but in a terminally online world boots on the ground certainly isn’t everything.
The Werribee by-election could be the canary in the coal mine for Labor. This looks dire for Labor. First off, as with by-elections in general, there’ll be a lower turnout and it’s generally lower amongst younger voters or those that are absent from the electorate. A bigger thing is that it’s an opportunity to protest vote without changing the government. At least it’s a signal to Labor. There’s also the aforementioned ballot order.
This week’s Resolve poll shows: ALP 22, LNP 42, GRN 13, IND 17, Others 6. I question the huge showing for independents but I suspect it’s the apathetic or undecided vote. I do believe the resentment towards Labor and the double-digit drop in support. Kos Samaras said that his Redbridge polling last had Labor at 30% but he doesn’t doubt the Resolve poll. The swings will be more pronounced in the outer suburbs I reckon (not just west and north but also south-east).
The west has been a critical part of Labor’s red wall for decades. I’ve read and heard that it has been overlooked for sometime, possibly due to the high Labor margins. There is a huge mortgage belt and a younger population in Werribee that is feeling the pinch from the cost of living. Some of you have mentioned the chronic neglect of infrastructure and services despite the growth and urban sprawl. I can sense a ‘taken for granted’ protest vote brewing owing to the neglect.
I sense that in Werribee, the primary vote swings away from Labor won’t go directly to the Liberals but to the plethora of independents and minor and micro parties. Similar story at the 2022 Fed/Vic general elections when Labor suffered swings in various outer suburban seats but either the Liberals also suffered swings (not to the same extent) or had a negligible increase in primary votes. The real winners were the ‘other’ candidates ranging from the Vic Socialists and Greens to UAP to PHON as well as various one-election wonders.
I would say if Labor retains this seat then the Resolve poll is wrong, and Labor’s current vote is above 22%. If it were that low Labor would most certainly lose this seat in a byelection where swings are nirmally bigger.
Not sure if anyone has noted it here but turns out the Resolve poll is actually drawn from their typical sample of about 1100, just the preferred premier question is the half sample
Interestingly these by-elections have attracted the same amount/type of candidates despite covering vastly differing demographics.
Werribee – 12 Candidates – 5 Independents, 4 Minors, 3 Majors (Alp/Lib/Grn)
Prahran – 12 Candidates – 5 Independents, 4 Minors, 2 Majors (Lib/Grn)
Comments:
AJP and FFP running in both seas makes sense (and they both ran in these seats in 2022).
Surprised LC chose Werribee and LBT chose Prahran, thought those two should have been reversed, based on the learning of each seat. However, LC does have a MLC covering Werribee and this could be a factor running here in promoting a ground game for Fed ’25 and then Vic ’26.
I thought VS would have more chance in Prahan, but maybe wanted to continue trying to build a base out west. (LegCo ’22 results show Western Metropolitan was VC second best area after Northern Metropolitan). They got 5% next door in Tarneit.
SAP being left leaning makes sense for them to pick Prahran and covers there strongest LegCo area, where they held a seat 2018-2022.
All in all, some interesting by-elections due to many factors. Tipping slim GRN Retain for Prahran and LIB Gain upset for Werribee.
VS don’t poll well in or target affluent areas, they go after very diverse and generally lower socio-economic areas. The LC vote tends to correlate with informal votes (the owner of this site did some cool analysis on this a while back) so they make little since running in a more affluent and well-educated seat.
I imagine for most minor parties half the battle is finding someone willing to run as much as it being a function of wider strategy
@PO I think Prahran might go to the Libs also at this point , looking at state polling for the Greens and the quality of the candidates as well as the presence of Tony Lupton who swill preference the Liberals
Current article in the Herald Sun indicating the ALP vote is heading into a “death spiral”.
I gather it’s relating to this seat, as the ALP is not fielding a candidate in Prahran.
Looks like posters here are now starting to feel that both these seats will flip to the Libs.
There is a poster or two on PB who also feel the same, but most are sticking with a Green win in Prahran and ALP win in Werribee, bar one or two notable posters.
What’s the consensus here?
Haha, the Herald Sun and the majority of PB commenters will give a vastly different account of what’s going on no doubt! I think consensus here is that Liberals are competitive but not favoured in Prahran, while Werribee is perhaps a toss up? Personally I think the Liberals now have the edge and we’ll see an Ipswich West style revolt that delivers them the seat
@PA1972 Statewide ALP vote at 22%, and TPP is at 1992 levels (Labor’s worst election outside of the DLP years). If that’s not a death spiral then I don’t know what is.
My tip is a Lib gain, with around a 15% swing.
Put me down for:
Werribee – LIB gain with a 2PP starting with 52 (roughly a 13% LIB swing).
This one is just a clear cut ALP v LIB contest where the state polling, plus byelection factor, will combine to result in a whopping swing to the Liberals at Labor’s expense.
Prahran – GRN retain with a 2CP starting with 53 (roughly an 8-9% LIB swing but mostly just due to preference dynamics rather than a loss of Greens support).
@Up the dragons – State polling shows the Greens vote holding up compared to 2022 and a +1 since the last poll, so I don’t think the Greens have anything to worry about in terms of their own support. They’ll mostly cop a hit in Prahran due to factors like low turnout, no Labor campaign to attack the Liberals, and unpredictable preference flows in the absence of Labor. A significant swing but not enough to wipe out a 12% margin.
I’ll note too that my prediction for Werribee is based more on statewide polling and the broader mood & media narrative, as I haven’t been anywhere near that seat in a long time and don’t really know many people who live there. So I’m not sure if there are local dynamics I’m missing. Whereas my prediction for Prahran is a lot more locally informed. The Greens are out-campaigning the Liberals by a wide margin in every way.
i think this might be close due to labors poor polling in vic but probly not enough to lose the seat
Drove past the pre-poll booth about an hour ago and it’s very quiet down there
so ive revised my position to a liberal gain as i forgot to factor in the anti govt vote that usually swings a by election harder then normal. i think the CoL crisis and current lack of relief plus anger towards both the state and federal govt will easil flip the seat for the by election similar to how ipswich west flipped at the by election as people tend not to vote rdinarily especially when it wont change the govt so im saying liberal gain here however the general election might be close
Was in Werribee today and seemed pretty quiet, not too many signs that a by-election is about to happen. In terms of posters/corflutes, in the town centre I saw lots for the Greens, a couple for the Liberals, 1 for Legalise Cannabis, 1 for Hopper and 1 for McLindon. Nothing for Labor anywhere. Saw one of the early voting locations too, similar trend – lots of volunteers in green and blue, but only one or two people in red. Labor doesn’t seem to have much of a presence at all in Werribee based on what I saw – I wonder if they’ve taken the seat for granted again.
I’m expecting a Liberal gain based on recent polling – with a swing to them of about 11-15%.
@witness and @aiscask , it’ll be fascinating to see what the turnout in Werribee is.
Low is likely – the question is ‘how low?’
Polling this morning – Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review says swing to Libs of about 9%, which would mean Labor hold on at around 52-48.
Liberal party are talking down their chances, saying a 5% swing would be a good result. Could just be expectation management.
Liberal sources also saying their polling suggests they would be more likely to win if they’d preselected local Indian businessman Rajan Chopra instead of the old white guy.
In other news, the Pope has been revealed to be a Catholic.
@expat thats within the margin for error but im saying their will be around a 15% swing as by election especially those that dont change the governemt tend to have larger swings. case in point the inala and ispeich west by elections in qld that swung hard against an unppular state govt.
This seat’s been talked up for a while as a seat in danger of being lost for Labor. I distinctly remember the expectations of an independent win in 2022 before Hopper turned in 6%.
Certainly there will be a swing here but I’m skeptical of the predictions of a double digit swing on this page. The fin review/Liberal sources playing down expectations seems more realistic. I would guess 5-10%
@Adda thats the job they have to not appear too confident incase things go sideways
@Adda That was likely just the Hun hyping things up as they often do.
This looks very different.
I think there’s probably a bit of column A and a bit of column B.
The media certainly likes talking up the prospects of both Werribee and Prahran flipping (and especially likes talking up the Lupton effect in Prahran because it’s a juicy narrative), and I have no doubt that the Liberals would want to play down their expectations in Werribee because if they’re talking about a 5% swing and exceed that then it looks good for Battin, if they’re talking about winning Werribee and fall short, it looks like a disappointment.
Similarly though, I think the bats are out in areas like Werribee and there will be a significant swing that will almost certainly exceed the 5% the Liberals are setting as the expectation.
However, I think there’s a very high chance that both by-elections see a 2CP swing to the Liberals within the 7-10% range and neither seat flips, but both can be framed as exceeding their expectations.
The Liberal candidate is 63 – and until I knew this I thought he might be pushing 70 just from his looks. I am not too far off 63 myself so this isn’t ageist – but any sort of younger candidate would be seen to exude more energy rather someone who looks older than their age and is running for the time. Fine if he has been there 20 years already.
I should say that I expect closer to 10% than 5%, and I wouldn’t be surprised by double digits or a Labor loss. But I don’t see that as being more likely than not, and it’s a common trend for competitive by-elections to be hyped up as very close or pivotal by media. The 95% confidence interval is perhaps something like no swing to 17 points of swing – it’s a wide range.
And that wide range leaves room for a lot of outcomes that aren’t particularly close.
@trent i wont be surprised if both are line ball and if the libs win both either
Final Prediction: Liberal Gain with about 52% 2PP. Steve Murphy will be the first member for a Melbourne-based seat north of the Yarra since Wayne Phillips in Eltham, who won the seat in 1992 and held until 2002. I just can’t see Labor winning this by-election.
Not to pick on you James, but your comment illustrates some of what I was getting at earlier. I’m not quite sure how a prediction of 52% can be compatible with a view of not seeing Labor winning this by-election. By-elections are high variance events, for a 52% 2PP with 13% swing it should be well within the range of possible outcomes to have a few points less swing and a Labor win.
I feel a lot of commenters here underestimate the degree of uncertainty that comes with this contest, and by-elections on the whole.
Adda is right – there are outcomes with a big swing that still end with an ALP retain.
Also given that prepoll and postal votes skew more conservative, the outcomes where the Liberals narrowly win will be a prolonged nail biter of a count with Labor looking like they’re winning for a time. Same with the narrow ALP retains.
I think this could end up anywhere between 54% ALP and 52% LIB, so it’s anyone’s seat to win. Based on that range I’d give Labor the very slight edge to retain, and that’s partly because of the poor choice of candidate by the Liberals.
The rush of project announcements and visits from the Premier suggests despite the expectation management from the Liberals that Labor are seriously concerned and Allen herself understands her leadership is potentially on the line if they are defeated here. It’s probably a coin flip but I’d give the Liberals the edge given voters are free to send a message to Labor without disrupting their majority and Battin is in something of a honeymoon phase as opposition leader and any Labor attacks on him haven’t stuck. Doubt the policy announcements mean much and yeah Liberal candidate choice was poor but also don’t consider it much of a factor
There is a chance that the independent does well here, the Liberals choosing a old white guy in a diverse electorate who doesn’t live in the seat seems like a poor move especially over riding the local branches preselection process which had a bunch of women from the area that were vying to be the candidate.
If the IND sources more votes from 2022 Labor voters who otherwise would have given their protest vote straight to the Liberals, that’ll benefit Labor because at least some of the votes will come back to Labor via preferences, and it could tame the 2PP swing.
Labor probably don’t want too much vote leeching to Hopper though – he might build on it and launch more successful bids with his team and take seats off Labor come 2026. Much easier for Labor to face off against the Liberals in 2PP contests out west than independents who are getting a strong preference flow from the Liberals, even if that severely compromises the LNP’s ability to form government