Nepean – Victoria 2022

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  1. Again another seat that the Liberals should be able to pick up, however Labor has incumbency on their side so it might be difficult for the LNP to pick this seat up.

  2. Bob I thought this seat has a Liberal MP Neale Burgess, although others have indicated he is retiring at the upcoming election. Unless some other incumbent Labor MP is intending to transfer and run in this district.

  3. @Yoh An, Neale Burgess has the neighbouring seat of Hastings, which is now notionally Labor.

    @echt, Sam Groth moved to Blairgowrie last year

  4. Yoh An,
    Labor won Nepean in 2018 state election. Neale Burgess who is retiring is the member for Hastings which is next door & has been made notionally Labor.

  5. Apologies, think I got confused between the two Mornington peninsula seats. Yes it is Hastings which is Liberal held but now considered notionally Labor after the redistribution.

  6. I think this is probably the Liberals’ best chance for a gain.

    From what I understand, the Mornington Peninsula was particularly unhappy with the Andrews government during the pandemic because they didn’t like being considered part of metropolitan Melbourne (when it didn’t suit them anyway).

  7. Easy Liberal pickup. Severe anti-Dan sentiment due to being classed as metro, and a member who really hasn’t done much. This and Hastings I would put into the safe Lib pickup category for the election.

  8. Based on federal results this would be the most vulnerable Labor seat in the state. The Liberals did better here than in Hawthorn on federal numbers!

  9. This is a likely Liberal gain. As previously discussed, some dissatisfaction with the way the Peninsula was classified as metro Melbourne during lockdowns.

  10. Seems a foregone conclusion by most that Libs will pick this up. Don’t know if Chris Brayne is well liked by the community, although losing your license 1 year into office after going 30km/h probably doesn’t help.

  11. Bob, Source that they think/said this?

    I think this along with Pakenham will be Labor losses but I suspect Hastings is still 50/50

  12. It seems the Teals did not do well in the Flinders electorate. Is it because the rich people there tend to be older and more conservative than in areas like Hawthorn?

  13. Good point about Teals. Portsea-Blairgowrie is very affluent and i would assume good for Teals. There was some controversy about Mornington Peninsula being include in Metro Melbourne Lockdown. However, it has a much older population with very few young families in sharp contrast to Pakenham where part of the backlash would be due to home schooling etc.

  14. It seems that the Anglosphere has parallel leaders (governing or not) even if leaders have some differences
    – Ronald Reagan
    – Margaret Thatcher
    – Roger Douglas (despite being Labour, it shares some similarities with the first two)
    – Bill Clinton
    – Paul Keating
    – Tony Blair
    – George W Bush
    – John Howard
    – Tony Blair (despite being Labour)
    – Stephen Harper
    late 2010s
    – Donald Trump
    – Scott Morrison
    – Boris Johnson
    2020s (aka covid period)
    – Ron Desantis
    – Pierre Poilievre
    – Matthew Guy
    – Greg Abbott
    – Donald Trump

    There may be more parallels and correct me if there are more

  15. The most likely “teal” prospect in Flinders ran into Section 44 problems (a good example of a generic interest in voting independent still requiring a viable independent candidate to vote for).


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