Monbulk – Victoria 2022

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  1. Labor might be a bit worried since this area didn’t really swing against the Libs in the federal election even with Tony Smith’s retirement and contains part of La Trobe which swung to the Libs. Add to that Merlino’s personal vote being gone and I can see this as one of the Lib’s target seats. That being said, I’m tipping Labor to retain this though on a reduced margin.

  2. Interesting that Merlino’s retiring, he’s only 49 and the same age as Daniel Andrews. Surprising considering that Andrews probably won’t lead Labor to the 2026 election, thought he might’ve wanted a tilt at the tob job although the last couple of years might have understandably burnt him out.
    @Dan M At the federal level the part Casey that overlaps with Monbulk seemed to still favour Labour with Mount Dandenong to South Belgrave been solid for Labor. Ferntree Gully in Aston also swung away from the Libs but that could also be to do with Alan Tudge and some of those Ferntree Gully booths are still better at the fed level than state for the Libs. At federal the Libs also received a swing to them in Cockatoo, Emerald and Gembrook, outperforming how they did at state level. Although i am comparing state and federal which can be different it can show the mood of an electorate, if some booths swung towards the Libs at federal then they probably will for state as well.

  3. He has been an MP since 2002 so won’t be too surprised (although you can say this to Andrew’s as well). Alongside the Frankston Line suburbs, I think the Dandenongs seem to hold more independent views (a bit like SA, WA, and Tas) so many don’t vote for their party and distinguish between state and federal governments so I think those two areas will have more unpredictable results compared to the rest of the state.

  4. The Libs might be in with a chance here if they endorse the right candidate. James Merlino has held this fairly comfortably except for 2010 but he has never built up a big margin. No doubt he has a personal vote that will be up for grabs.

  5. Labor hold I don’t see this fall, maybe a swing away due to the loss of a long term member. I do expect the greens to improve here.

  6. Some of the personal vote that Merlino has in Upwey, Tecoma, Belgrave could fall to the Greens, whereas the personal vote in Monbulk is more likely to fall to the Liberals.
    Ferntree Gully could theoretically swing to Labor as they have lost long standing incumbent Nick Waekling – who is contesting Bayswater. Labor performed a lot better Federally in Ferntree Gully than state booths.

    I think Labor will retain this.


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