ALP 5.0%
Incumbent MP
Steve McGhie, since 2018.
Geography
Western fringe of Melbourne. Melton covers parts of Melton and Moorabool council areas, with a majority of the seat’s population in Melton itself.
Redistribution
Melton lost Bacchus Marsh to Eureka and gained Grangefields and Thornhill Park from Kororoit and expanded north into Macedon. These changes increased the Labor margin from 4.3% to 5.0%.
History
Melton was first created as an electoral district in 1992. It has always been won by the Labor Party.
It was first won in 1992 by David Cunningham, who had previously been elected to the newly-created seat of Derrimut in 1985. Derrimut was abolished after only two elections in 1992, and Cunningham moved to Melton. He was re-elected in 1996 and retired in 1999.
In 1999, he was succeeded by Don Nardella. He had served as a Labor MLC for Melbourne North province for one term from 1992 to 1999 before moving to the Legislative Assembly. Nardella was re-elected in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014.
Nardella served as Deputy Speaker from 2014 until 2017, when he resigned over his claiming an allowance for a second house. He subsequently resigned from the ALP to serve out his term as an independent.
Nardella retired in 2018, and Labor’s Steve McGhie won the seat.
- Paul Blackborrow (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Ian Birchall (Independent)
- Tony Dobran (Freedom Party)
- Graham Watt (Liberal)
- Richard Brunt (Family First)
- Jason Spencer Perera (Independent)
- Ashley Alp (Democratic Labour)
- Praise Morris (Greens)
- Jarrod James Bingham (Independent)
- Steve McGhie (Labor)
- Lucienne Ciappara (Health Australia)
- Fiona Adin-James (Animal Justice)
- Jasleen Kaur (New Democrats)
- Samantha Jane Donald (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
Assessment
Melton is a traditional Labor seat, prior to a swing against Labor in 2018 while most seats swung towards Labor. It seems likely the seat will revert to type in 2022.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve McGhie | Labor | 14,691 | 34.9 | -15.5 | 34.7 |
| Ryan Farrow | Liberal | 7,844 | 18.7 | -12.2 | 16.8 |
| Ian Birchall | Independent | 4,402 | 10.5 | +10.5 | 12.8 |
| Bob Turner | Independent | 4,108 | 9.8 | +9.8 | 10.8 |
| Sophie Ramsey | Independent | 2,260 | 5.4 | +5.4 | 6.3 |
| Jarrod Bingham | Independent | 2,842 | 6.8 | +6.8 | 5.0 |
| Harkirat Singh | Greens | 1,980 | 4.7 | -2.6 | 4.6 |
| Tania Milton | Animal Justice | 1,185 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.8 |
| Victor Bennett | Democratic Labour | 1,166 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.8 |
| Daryl Lang | Independent | 878 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.2 |
| Grant Stirling | Independent | 424 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.6 |
| Ron Guy | Socialists | 275 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.6 |
| Others | 0.1 | ||||
| Informal | 4,704 | 10.1 | +1.9 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Steve McGhie | Labor | 22,830 | 54.3 | -6.9 | 55.0 |
| Ryan Farrow | Liberal | 19,225 | 45.7 | +6.9 | 45.0 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 56% in the north-east and south, and 60% in the north-west.
A large number of independents ran in Melton, and they polled over 34% in all three areas.
| Voter group | IND prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 39.8 | 56.2 | 6,004 | 17.8 |
| North-East | 34.8 | 56.1 | 4,716 | 14.0 |
| North-West | 40.2 | 60.2 | 3,746 | 11.1 |
| Pre-poll | 40.8 | 52.2 | 14,723 | 43.7 |
| Other votes | 25.5 | 60.1 | 4,536 | 13.4 |
Election results in Melton at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidates, Labor and the Liberal Party.
@Bob if the Libs or any independent couldn’t win a single seat in 2022 in the north and west, I doubt they will in 2026. Most of the swing is because of the anti-Dan and anti-vax vote, none of which will apply in 2026 given Andrews is likely to be gone as premier then and the pandemic becomes a distant memory. Labor could easily sandbag and reverse those margins next election. The Libs barely got any primary vote increase, it’s just that they received the bulk of the anti-Dan preferences.