Benambra – Victoria 2022

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  1. An Independent got very close in 2018, wouldn’t be surprised if they ran again off the support of Helen Haines. Nearby Ovens Valley would also be susceptible to an independent challenger, the local National MP was charged with a number of fraud offences just before the last election but cleared in court in 2021. Interesting to see what damage that would’ve done to his local reputation.
    Benambra and Ovens Valley both cover the electorate of Indi, so the starting base is already there.

  2. If the claims of guilt by the Prosecution didn’t damage him, then I guess the verdict of innocence from the Judge won’t hurt him either.

  3. Jacqui Hawkins is re-contesting in November, she came within around 1000 votes of winning in 2018.

    This is probably the most likely Independent gain in the state. Liberals will likely throw a lot at trying to avoid losing this seat, they can’t afford any losses.

  4. Yeah, this is entirely in Helen Haines’s electorate. She got a huge 7.5% swing in Indi but it’s probably the incumbency effect.

    I assume the last map combines the primary vote of both independent candidates in 2018.

  5. McGowan was still federal MP when this was last up. Since then Haines has proven you can still win as an independent in this region with the right campaign.

    IND gain since Hawkins is running again, but will be marginal.

  6. Especially if Guy survives until the election. This dodgy money business with his chief of staff is madness, and totally toxic.

  7. @Mark The problem with the Matthew Guy scandal is that it basically neutralises the Libs’ campaign on integrity. It doesn’t mean the Labor corruption is ok at all but in the eyes of the average voter, it makes the Libs look as bad as Labor in terms of integrity and corruption. It also has echoes of 2018 with the lobster with a mobster campaign and we all know how well that turned out for the Libs then. That is why the scandal has scared so many Lib MPs and candidates to the point that some want to Matthew Guy to be replaced. The state Libs seem to have a problem where every time it finally looks like they are getting back in the game, an internal problem happens and messes everything up just like with the Tim Smith drunk driving incident last November.

  8. @Dan M

    I won’t argue at all with that, but the problem comes when VIC Labor/Dan supporters point the finger at Guy when Dan himself held repeated quid-pro-quo dinners at the Flower Drum restaurant in China Town. He met corrupt developer John Woodman there who, at the time, was representing none other than Antonio Madafferi, also known as the lobster monster. Funny how that barely got any attention. Anyway….

    So it’s hilarious that Matthew Guy gets all the flack when Dan is actually worse, especially when you account for all the misuse of taxpayer funds, the failed infrastructure projects, health system failures, VicForrests logging, IBAC hearings and so on (literally too many to list).

    Of course, any corruption that Dan’s involved in gets about 5 minutes in the media, while Matthew Guy gets an entire week on one issue, so this plays a huge part on how the two are perceived by the average voter.

    Ultimately there will be a swing to the Libs in seat count and vote share regardless, because Dan generates more hatred than Matthew Guy. A potato could take the place of Guy and the Libs would still get a swing towards them at this point. Best case for the Libs would be to pick up Hawthorne (quite likely at this stage), and parachute Pesutto in as Leader. If John was Lib leader now, Dan would be facing wipeout.


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