Incumbent MLC
Jane Howlett (Liberal), since 2018.
Geography
South-eastern Tasmania. Prosser covers the entirety of the Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Southern Midlands and Tasman council areas, most of Sorell council area and parts of Brighton and Northern Midlands councils. The main towns are Sorell, Dodges Ferry, Brighton, Bagdad, Swansea and Triabunna.
History
Prosser was created as a new seat in 2018. While the seat of Western Tiers was abolished and the term of that seat’s MLC expired in 2018, the two seats had barely any overlap. Prosser was mostly made up of areas from the seats of Apsley and Rumney.
Liberal candidate Jane Howlett won Prosser with just 26% of the primary vote, winning 52.7% of the two-party-preferred race against the Labor candidate.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal MLC Jane Howlett stepped down from this seat to successfully contest the electorate of Lyons at the House of Assembly election in March.
- Phillip Bigg (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Bryan Green (Labor)
- Pam Sharpe (Independent)
- Kelly Spaulding (Independent)
- Kerry Vincent (Liberal)
Assessment
Howlett may have built up the power of incumbency, but seems likely to move to the lower house, leaving this seat vacant. This seat was dominated by the major parties in 2018 so it seems likely it will again be a Labor vs Liberal contest.
Bryan Green has had a big headstart in campaigning and that could prove to give him the edge over the late-announced Liberal candidate.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Jane Howlett | Liberal | 5,051 | 26.1 |
| Janet Lambert | Labor | 4,237 | 21.9 |
| Steve Mav | Independent | 3,798 | 19.7 |
| Tony Mulder | Independent | 1,880 | 9.7 |
| Lorraine Bennett | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 1,077 | 5.6 |
| Jim Playsted | Independent | 969 | 5.0 |
| Scott Wiggins | Independent | 573 | 3.0 |
| Jo Bain | Independent | 417 | 2.2 |
| Doug Parkinson | Independent | 387 | 2.0 |
| Kelly Spaulding | Independent | 377 | 2.0 |
| John The Duke Of Avram | Independent | 254 | 1.3 |
| Kim Peart | Independent | 181 | 0.9 |
| Colin Harriss | Tasmanians 4 Tasmania | 126 | 0.7 |
| Informal | 1,019 | 5.0 |
2018 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Jane Howlett | Liberal | 8,776 | 52.7 |
| Janet Lambert | Labor | 7,889 | 47.3 |
Polling places in Prosser have been split into three parts: north-east, south-east and west. These areas follow local government boundaries: South-East covers booths in the Sorell and Tasman LGAs, West covers booths in the Brighton and Southern Midlands LGAs, and North-East covers booths in the Glamorgan/Spring Bay and Northern Midlands LGAs.
The Liberal primary vote was highest in the north-east and west (around 30%) and just 19% in the south-east.
Labor’s vote ranged from 20.9% in the west to 23.2% in the north-east.
Independent candidate Steve Mav topped the primary vote in the south-east with 24.9%, but polled just 11.2% in the north-east.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | Mav % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 19.1 | 22.7 | 24.9 | 5,760 | 29.8 |
| West | 29.5 | 20.9 | 21.6 | 5,206 | 26.9 |
| North-East | 31.5 | 23.2 | 11.2 | 2,923 | 15.1 |
| Other votes | 30.0 | 21.8 | 14.0 | 2,904 | 15.0 |
| Pre-poll | 24.7 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 2,534 | 13.1 |
Election results in Prosser at the 2018 Legislative Council election
Toggle between primary votes for Liberal candidate Jane Howlett, Labor candidate Janet Lambert and independent candidates Steve Mav and Tony Mulder.
It appears (subject to formal preselection confirmation) that Howlett is going to resign her seat and run as a Liberal for Lyons in the lower house but she can then recontest Prosser in May if she loses.
Originally I thought Labor’s choice of Green was silly but they may actually win this one. At this point it feels like a coin flip as to whether Liberal or Labor win. Vincent is probably the best choice of Liberal candidate at such short notice. Spaulding could poll between 10-20% with Shooters between 5-10% and presumably Sharpe won’t poll much especially when the Save UTAS issue is pretty irrelevant out here.