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This is a seat Labor seems to have just missed out during this period of Labor Government. I was held for most of the Beattie/Bligh Years & all the Wayne Goss Years. The presence of Right-wing populist parties (such as NQF, ONP, UAP, KAP) may have complicated this seat for Labor.
Whitsunday was held continuously by the Country/National Party from its creation in 1950 until 1989.
In 1989, the sitting member, Geoff Muntz, was dis-endorsed following corruption allegations He ran as an independent which reduced the National vote enough for Labor to win.
It is not uncommon for National/LNP to lose a seat to Labor when the sitting member is dis-endorsed, or quits, and runs as an independent. For example, Mulgrave and Isis both in 1989.
Labor has a tendency to lose regional seats when head office overrides the local branch pre-selection and the local members refuse to work on the campaign, or even run an independent candidate against the endorsed candidate. For example, Bundaberg 2006, Head Office overrode the local branch and local branch ran an independent candidate.
In 2020, with the sitting LNP member for Whitsunday dis-endorsed and re-contesting, it looked like Labor would win. The local Labor branches preselected the candidate that came close to winning in 2015 and 2017. Labor head office overrode the local preselection and some local branches refused to help with the campaign.
Whitsundays is a seat that Labor held during the Beattie/Bligh years, lost in 2012 and hasn’t regained since. They were close in 2015 and 2017. They really missed their chance.
I suspect in 2024, LNP’s primary vote will increase as support for the minor right-wing parties (NQF, UAP, ONP, KAP) collapses.
@Votante agreed, seems to me that Labor isn’t getting close again any time soon.