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This seat took a 4.3% swing against the LNP last election. I suspect it was same issue as neighboring seat Nicklin, where the elderly One Nation vote swung behind Labor because of their management of the pandemic. Despite the reasonably modest 4.1% margin. I expect the LNP will likely retain this seat, and increase its margin. In an election where Labor will likely be fighting to retain seats rather then to make inroads in the LNP seats. Retaining seats Nicklin and Caloundra will likely be more of a priority then spending resources in Ninderry. LNP MP for Ninderry Dan Purdie recently has been elevated to shadow cabinet, in the police and community safety portfolio.