LNP 13.1% vs ON
Incumbent MP
James Lister, since 2017.
Geography
Southern Queensland. Southern Downs cover rural areas stretching along the Queensland-NSW border. Major centres include Warwick, Stanthorpe, Millmerran, Texas, Inglewood and Goondiwindi. Southern Downs covers Goondiwindi and Southern Downs LGAs and parts of Toowoomba local government area.
History
The seat of Southern Downs was created at the 2001 election.
Southern Downs in 2001 was won by Lawrence Springborg, who had been a National Party MP since 1989, first for Carnarvon and then for Warwick.
Springborg had previously served briefly as a minister in the final months of the Borbidge government in 1998.
Springborg became leader of the National Party in 2003, and led the party to the 2004 and 2006 elections.
He stepped down as leader in 2006, but returned to the party’s leadership in 2008.
Later in 2008 he led the Nationals into a merger with the Liberal Party, forming the Liberal National Party. He led the LNP into the 2009 state election. He served as deputy leader of the LNP from 2009 to 2011, and served as Minister for Health in the Newman government from 2012 to 2015. Springborg again served as LNP leader from 2015 to 2016.
Springborg retired at the 2017 election, and the LNP’s James Lister was comfortably elected in Southern Downs. Springborg went on to be elected unopposed as Mayor of Goondiwindi in 2020.
Candidates
- Tom Henderson (Greens)
- Joel Richters (Labor)
- James Lister (Liberal National)
- Malcolm Richardson (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
- Deborah Waldron (Legalise Cannabis)
- Rosemary Moulden (One Nation)
Assessment
Southern Downs is a very safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Lister | Liberal National | 12,797 | 41.2 | -21.6 |
| Josh Coyne | One Nation | 6,331 | 20.4 | +20.4 |
| Joel Richters | Labor | 5,245 | 16.9 | -6.6 |
| Rob Mackenzie | Independent | 5,042 | 16.2 | +16.2 |
| Antonia Van Geuns | Greens | 1,340 | 4.3 | -2.9 |
| Jay Nauss | Independent | 300 | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 1,181 | 3.7 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| James Lister | Liberal National | 19,584 | 63.1 | -6.1 |
| Josh Coyne | One Nation | 11,471 | 36.9 | +36.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Southern Downs have been divided into four areas: Warwick, north, south and west.
The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all four areas, ranging from 57.2% in the west to 69.6% in the south.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.5% in the west to 20.8% in Warwick.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 14.3 | 58.0 | 4,534 | 14.6 |
| South | 18.3 | 69.6 | 4,477 | 14.4 |
| Warwick | 20.8 | 61.5 | 4,392 | 14.1 |
| West | 13.5 | 57.2 | 3,771 | 12.1 |
| Pre-poll | 17.6 | 64.7 | 10,317 | 33.2 |
| Other votes | 15.2 | 64.8 | 3,564 | 11.5 |
Election results in Southern Downs at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.
Having spent a fair time of my younger days in this electorate, I could never really see the fascination with the Borg, and has taken the Ruddock path of finding a cushy mayoral job to retire on (yep, he’ll be mayor of G’di for some time yet). The amalgamation of Stanthorpe Shire into Warwick Shire to create the Southern Downs Region council really pissed off everyone in Stanthorpe that basically, I really can’t see the Labor vote recovering in that area this generation. And with the border controls…I don’t know why Labor would bother to run here (just noticed it’s the same candidate as last time). This electorate has been taken for granted, but they’ll keep voting National/LNP until the day most of them die. Another LNP vs ONP contest which I expect the margin to blow out in the LNP favour.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain