Mansfield – QLD 2020

ALP 1.6%

Incumbent MP
Corrine McMillan, since 2017.

Geography
Brisbane. Mansfield covers southeastern parts of the City of Brisbane and small parts of Redland City. Mansfield covers the suburbs of Mansfield, Wishart, Upper Mount Gravatt and Mackenzie, and parts of Mount Gravatt and Mount Gravatt East.

History
The seat of Mansfield has existed since 1972. Conservative MPs held the seat from 1972 until 1989, and apart from two terms the ALP has held it since 1989.

Bill Kaus held the seat from 1972 to 1986. He originally sat as a Liberal, but switched to the National Party in 1983, at the election when the coalition was dissolved and the Nationals decimated the ranks of the Liberal Party in Parliament.

He was succeeded in 1986 by Craig Sherrin, also a National Party MP. Sherrin was defeated in 1989 by ALP candidate Laurel Power.

Power lost in 1995 to Frank Carroll of the Liberal Party. He was defeated in 1998 by Phil Reeves. Reeves was re-elected in 2001, 2004 and 2009, and was promoted to the Bligh government’s ministry after the 2009 election.

In 2012, Labor MP Phil Reeves was defeated by Liberal National candidate Ian Walker. Walker served as a minister in the LNP government from 2013 until 2015. Walker was narrowly re-elected in 2015.

Walker lost to Labor’s Corrine McMillan in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Mansfield is a very marginal seat, although the sitting MP would hope to benefit from a personal vote which did not exist in 2017.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ian Walker Liberal National 11,61040.2-5.3
Corinne McMillan Labor 11,37539.4-2.3
Barbara Bell Greens 3,26311.3+1.8
Neil SymesOne Nation2,6319.1+9.1
Informal1,2434.1

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Corinne McMillan Labor 14,90851.6+0.8
Ian Walker Liberal National 13,97148.4-0.8

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mansfield have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in each area, ranging from 52.3% in the south to 59% in the north. The LNP narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won a solid majority of other votes.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.8% in the centre to 14.8% in the north.

Voter groupGRN primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Central10.852.78,56229.6
North14.859.05,00617.3
South12.352.32,8559.9
Pre-poll9.149.75,39018.7
Other votes10.746.27,06624.5

Election results in Mansfield at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.


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13 COMMENTS

  1. I think Labor will hold Mansfield. A leaked internal LNP poll had Labor leading 55-45 in Mansfield in June. Not exactly numbers to be very buoyed by if you are the LNP. The LNP are making some spending promises in the seat though, so they obviously think the seat is still in play. But Deb Frecklington biggest hurdle will be making inroads into Labor’s dominance in Brisbane and I just don’t see Mansfield moving.

  2. My prediction is this seat will come down to the wire. Not ready to call it for either side.

    The LNP have chosen a good candidate and one that clearly has strong community links, but never underestimate the popularity of Corinne McMillan. As a former school Principal her name ID would be huge and has clearly been a hardworking MP for the past 3 years. Mansfield usually goes with government though, so look to Mansfield for early signs of how the LNP is travelling in Brisbane.

  3. The One Nation prefencing Labor factor decided this last time. No One Nation candidate it should help the LNP but the sophomore surge and other statewide factors such as the Premier’s handling of COVID are more decisive here.

  4. So ONP had a former MP in Neil Symes at the 2017 election (contesting Jordan – ONP for this election) who served at LNP MP for Lytton 2012-2015. Even with a former MP, the ONP didn’t really go high and I really can’t see them selecting someone here when there are other better targets. (Can be proved wrong on that but see their impact as minimal if they do.) If they don’t run, Labor has the advantage of Greens prefs. Can’t see this one moving.

    Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain

  5. September prediction: Labor hold. I don’t know why I feel a bit better about Labor’s chances here than say a seat like Redlands with a bigger margin?

  6. FTB
    i Think you are likely dead right. The booth results for all the western booths hardly changed in Bonner 2019. If Bob Brown & Bill Shorten etc, etc, couldn’t change their vote , i can’t think of anything else that will !. Quite sad really…….. Agree with you about Redlands too.
    The result looks like a very small swing to the LNP. BUT not enough for a change. Probably not even 1%.. Or maybe a little the other way.

    PRP
    Agreed. However my instinct is that this seat will be atypical ,in no way an indicator, or predictive.

  7. Sorry, the LNP aren’t winning here! Ignore the poll saying the LNP are up on the primary. With the loss of the LNP incumbent feom last time there is no way they gain here unless there is a mass voter fraud operation by the LNP or a decent cictory cor the LNP. No way is this seat 50-50 while Pumicestone is 54-46 ALP. Does not add up. Labor gets a swing here. Labor is more likely to win here than Mundingbarra and Pumicestone combined. Ignore the rogue poll. The tories are not winning this seat

  8. Like Mansfield the collapse of the One Nation vote should help the LNP but the Swing to the ALP due to the COVID Response is also in play.a real toss up. I lean Labor retain.

  9. This is Brisbane’s Bible belt seat with a huge number of evangelical Christian voters. It remains to be seen what backlash there might be against the Labor government’s abortion laws.

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