ALP 3.4%
Incumbent MP
Michael Healy, since 2017.
Geography
Far North Queensland. The seat of Cairns covers the Cairns CBD and the neighbouring suburbs of Bungalow, Westcourt, Manoora, Kanimbla, Edge Hill, Mooroobool, Earlville, Brinsmead, Whitfield and Aeroglen.
History
Cairns has been a Labor seat for most of the last century, barring one term when it was held by the LNP, and two periods when it was held by an independent Labor MP.
The seat was held by Bill McCormack from 1912 to 1930. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1925 to 1929.
The seat was won in 1998 by Desley Boyle. Boyle served five terms in Parliament, and served as a minister in the Beattie and Bligh governments from 2004 to 2011.
Desley Boyle retired at the 2012 election. LNP candidate Gavin King won the seat off the ALP with a 13% swing.
King held his seat for one term, losing to Labor candidate Rob Pyne in 2015.
Pyne quickly fell out with his Labor colleagues, openly criticising numerous government decisions. Pyne resigned from the Labor Party in March 2016, and served out the remainder of his term as an independent.
Labor’s Michael Healy won Cairns in 2017.
Candidates
- Sam Marino (Liberal National)
- Darrin Griffith (One Nation)
- Sarah Baxter (Informed Medical Options)
- David Wright (United Australia)
- Daniel Dench (Greens)
- Michael Healy (Labor)
Assessment
Cairns is a marginal Labor seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Healy | Labor | 8,649 | 30.4 | -14.0 |
| Sam Marino | Liberal National | 7,871 | 27.7 | -9.7 |
| Rob Pyne | Independent | 5,440 | 19.2 | +19.2 |
| Ian Hodge | One Nation | 4,157 | 14.6 | +14.6 |
| Aaron Mcdonald | Greens | 2,290 | 8.1 | +0.3 |
| Informal | 1,206 | 4.1 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Healy | Labor | 15,167 | 53.4 | -4.1 |
| Sam Marino | Liberal National | 13,240 | 46.6 | +4.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Cairns have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54% in the south to 60.3% in the centre. The LNP won 51.5% of the pre-poll vote.
Independent candidate Rob Pyne came third, with a vote ranging from 18.2% in the north to 23.1% in the centre. One Nation came third, with a vote ranging from 11.2% in the north to 14.8% in the south.
| Voter group | ON prim | IND prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 11.2 | 18.2 | 57.7 | 5,513 | 19.4 |
| Central | 12.5 | 23.1 | 60.3 | 4,307 | 15.2 |
| South | 14.8 | 18.9 | 54.0 | 3,184 | 11.2 |
| Pre-poll | 17.0 | 18.6 | 48.5 | 11,263 | 39.6 |
| Other votes | 14.8 | 18.1 | 53.2 | 4,140 | 14.6 |
Election results in Cairns at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for independent candidate Rob Pyne and One Nation.
A must-win for the ALP if they want to be re-elected.
LNP are quite visible with advertising already and will back themselves.
With the Rob Pyne factor gone, I expect most of that vote to go back to the ALP. There are currently no minor party candidates endorsed so far, so it’s a simple shoot out at the moment between ALP vs LNP.
Thanks for the update @ NQ View. Is crime a big an issue in the campaign as it is in Townsville?
As mentioned on Barron River, the minors (ONP, KAP, NQF) seem to be more focusing on neighbouring Cook so don’t expect as high a minor party vote this election. As I said, I have a slight Townsville bias, but I just don’t see Cairns swinging as much or ALP at the moment loosing this seat. Later this month and early October with release of more figures of the effects of loss of tourism could change that (especially Cairns relied more on international tourism as opposed to Townsville), and aid the LNP. For now…
Prediction (August 2020): ALP Retain
There is mention of crime in some of the advertising, but the big focus seems to be on jobs. Warren Entsch features prominently in a few billboards both in Cairns and Barron River (not sure about Mulgrave as I rarely get out that way). Interesting to involve the local federal MP in this way – no mention of Deb Frecklington anywhere.
September prediction: Labor retain.
One of the rare sears where LNP is running back their previous candidate. Sam ran a strong campaign last time and us well resourced again. While Barron River is the more natural marginal, a LNP win here wouldn’t surprise me.
I agree, I’m not ruling out the LNP winning Cairns just yet.
I’m convinced the swing is on in FNQ but I also think without Rob Pyne running, this seat should be retained by Labor. Hard to tell.
Cairns has attracted 6 candidates so far, ALP,LNP,GRN with UAP,ONP,IMOP in for the ride. Rob Pyne’s vote has to go somewhere, but problem is, if it doesn’t go back to ALP, it may split among those others. I actually think this is one seat that ALP will get a small swing towards it on primaries [no anger to R.Pyne] as a low base but it’ll be crucial on preferences. I still think the margin being higher than Barron River makes this one less likely to fall but it’s close.
Prediction (September 2020): TOSS-UP (Lean ALP) [change from ALP Retain]
Last Week Prediction – ALP retain. 1% swing to the LNP on 2PP.
Final prediction: Labor retain JUST and I meant to stress the JUST. The effects on tourism re border closures may not hurt Labor on the GC as much as some in the media claim but it will here. The Cairns economy relies on tourism, I lived there for a number of years. Healy is a good MP and despite what some say, him making that albeit probably uncalled for comment about the baby bonus and crime will resonate with some people there and is why I am saying he just gets over the line, at one stage I had him gone. Cairns isn’t redneck but it also isn’t inner city Brisbane.
Prediction: ALP Retain
The TPP swing in 2017 was particularly strong for the LNP and, even though I believe their first preference will lift this time due to the same factors as Barron River, I think lots of the Pyne vote goes back to Labor giving them plenty of buffer room.
Labor retain
ALP hold but by a whisker. Almost too close to call