ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Eva Lawler, since 2016.
Geography
Palmerston. Drysdale covers central parts of the city of Palmerston, to the east of Darwin. Drysdale covers the suburbs of Yarrawonga, Gray and Gunn.
Redistribution
Drysdale shifted north-east, taking in Gunn from Brennan and losing Moulden to Blain. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 7.9% to 5.3%.
History
The electorate of Drysdale has existed since 1997. The Country Liberal Party had won the seat at all but one seat up until 2016, but the seat has been in Labor hands for the last two terms.
The CLP’s Stephen Dunham won Drysdale, and held the seat for two terms. Drysdale was considered to be very safe before the 2005 election, when Dunham lost in a shock result to Labor’s Chris Natt.
Natt only held Drysdale for one term, losing the seat in 2008 to the CLP’s Ross Bohlin.
Bohlin himself only lasted for one term. He lost preselection in the lead up to the 2012 election, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent, losing to the CLP’s Lia Finocchiaro.
Finocchiaro ran for the new seat of Spillett in 2016, and Labor’s Eva Lawler won Drysdale with a swing of 16.6%.
Lawler was re-elected in 2020, and was elected Labor leader and Chief Minister in late 2023 following the resignation of Natasha Fyles.
- Eva Lawler (Labor)
- Cindy Mebbingarri Roberts (Independent)
- Clinton Howe (Country Liberal)
Assessment
Drysdale is not a particularly safe seat, and is held in an area which has not traditionally been a good area for Labor. But Lawler is now the Chief Minister, and would have a good chance of winning re-election even if Labor does poorly overall.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Eva Lawler | Labor | 1,648 | 42.2 | +1.2 | 41.8 |
| Leanne Butler | Country Liberal | 1,023 | 26.2 | -8.3 | 30.3 |
| Fiona Lynch | Territory Alliance | 533 | 13.6 | +13.6 | 12.6 |
| Lash Lisson | Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water | 226 | 5.8 | +5.8 | 3.9 |
| Danielle Eveleigh | Independent | 211 | 5.4 | +5.4 | 3.7 |
| Raj Samson Rajwin | Independent | 179 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 3.1 |
| Brendan Killalea | Independent | 85 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 1.5 |
| Others | 3.2 | ||||
| Informal | 204 | 5.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Eva Lawler | Labor | 2,261 | 57.9 | +2.7 | 55.3 |
| Leanne Butler | Country Liberal | 1,644 | 42.1 | -2.7 | 44.7 |
Booth breakdown
The only ordinary booth in the current boundaries of Drysdale is Woodroffe, but part of Bakewell was also added to the seat in the redistribution. The ALP won both booths, winning by more in Woodroffe.
Almost two thirds of the vote was cast at pre-poll centres, and Labor won 55.2% of the two-party-preferred vote there.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 55.2 | 2,785 | 65.8 |
| Other votes | 54.0 | 919 | 21.7 |
| Woodroffe | 61.2 | 341 | 8.0 |
| Bakewell | 52.5 | 188 | 4.5 |
Polling places surrounding Drysdale at the 2020 ACT election
A string clp campaign here could force Labor and Lawler to campaign here and divert extra resources and time.
Thoughts on the very real possibility that Eva Lawler could become the third NT Chief Minister and the first NT Labor leader to be unseated at a general election? Currently the redistribution makes it marginal (Labor’s margin is 55.3%).
There’s a possibility Eva Lawler could lose her own seat in 2024 given the margin.
agreed an i think e will
The CLP have encouraged a reverse donkey vote here. The candidate order is Labor, independent, CLP, and the CLP have encouraged voters to put Labor last in this seat.
When was the last time a Labor leader lost their own seat at an election in Australian history? If I am not mistaken it is Perc Tucker in QLD in 1974. It always seems to be Conservative Leaders who lose their seats…
1978: The Liberal NSW leader lost his seat
1981: The Liberal NSW leader lost his seat
2005: The CLP leader who was previously chief minister lost his seat
2007: John Howard lost his seat and was the incumbent government
2015: Campbell Newman lost his seat and was the incumbent government
2016: Adam Giles lost his seat and was the incumbent government
2021: Zak Kirkup lost his seat as opposition leader.
There have also been very close calls such as Marshall almost losing his seat in SA in 2022 and Tim Nicholls was never safe in QLD in 2017.
Why is it that Labor almost never lose their leaders seats the the conservative side does? Eva Lawler made history on being the first Labor leader in 50 years or so to lose her seat. Kevin Rudd was marginal in 2013 but still didn’t lose, same with Bligh a year earlier in the same area of Brisbane incidentally.
@Daniel T here’s a full list of incumbent Prime Ministers, Premiers and Chief Ministers who lost their seats since Federation.
Federal:
* Stanley Bruce (Nationalist, Flinders, 1929)
* John Howard (Liberal, Bennelong, 2007)
New South Wales:
* William Holman (Nationalist, Cootamundra, 1920)
Queensland:
* Digby Denham (Nationalist, Oxley, 1915)
* Campbell Newman (LNP, Ashgrove, 2015)
Western Australia:
* James Mitchell (Nationalist, Northam, 1933)
Northern Territory:
* Goff Letts (CLP, Victoria Daly, 1978) — this is the only time in Australian history that a leader has been unseated but their party forms government
* Adam Giles (CLP, Braitling, 2016)
* Eva Lawler (Labor, Drysdale, 2024)
So she’s actually the first Labor head of government to lose her seat at an election in Australian history.
Daniel, I think Anthony Green in one blog post mentioned it is an artefact of Labor leaders generally holding safer seats. Steven Miles in Murrumba would be added to the list of leader casualties if he loses his seat in October (which is probably a 50/50 proposition based on current polling).
@Yoh A yeah it does seem that Labor leaders represent safe or very safe seats as opposed to marginal or fairly safe seats.
However, it’s rare in general for a leader to be unseated even if their party is unpopular at that point in time. This is because leaders from both major parties usually represent safe or very safe seats. Yet in 2024 we might see two leaders unseated, depending on whether Murrumba falls to the LNP in Queensland.