Drysdale – NT 2024

ALP 5.3%

Incumbent MP
Eva Lawler, since 2016.

Geography
Palmerston. Drysdale covers central parts of the city of Palmerston, to the east of Darwin. Drysdale covers the suburbs of Yarrawonga, Gray and Gunn.

Redistribution
Drysdale shifted north-east, taking in Gunn from Brennan and losing Moulden to Blain. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 7.9% to 5.3%.

History
The electorate of Drysdale has existed since 1997. The Country Liberal Party had won the seat at all but one seat up until 2016, but the seat has been in Labor hands for the last two terms.

The CLP’s Stephen Dunham won Drysdale, and held the seat for two terms. Drysdale was considered to be very safe before the 2005 election, when Dunham lost in a shock result to Labor’s Chris Natt.

Natt only held Drysdale for one term, losing the seat in 2008 to the CLP’s Ross Bohlin.

Bohlin himself only lasted for one term. He lost preselection in the lead up to the 2012 election, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent, losing to the CLP’s Lia Finocchiaro.

Finocchiaro ran for the new seat of Spillett in 2016, and Labor’s Eva Lawler won Drysdale with a swing of 16.6%.

Lawler was re-elected in 2020, and was elected Labor leader and Chief Minister in late 2023 following the resignation of Natasha Fyles.

Candidates

  • Clinton Howe (Country Liberal)
  • Assessment
    Drysdale is not a particularly safe seat, and is held in an area which has not traditionally been a good area for Labor. But Lawler is now the Chief Minister, and would have a good chance of winning re-election even if Labor does poorly overall.

    2020 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist %
    Eva Lawler Labor 1,648 42.2 +1.2 41.8
    Leanne Butler Country Liberal 1,023 26.2 -8.3 30.3
    Fiona Lynch Territory Alliance 533 13.6 +13.6 12.6
    Lash Lisson Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water 226 5.8 +5.8 3.9
    Danielle Eveleigh Independent 211 5.4 +5.4 3.7
    Raj Samson Rajwin Independent 179 4.6 +4.6 3.1
    Brendan Killalea Independent 85 2.2 +2.2 1.5
    Others 3.2
    Informal 204 5.0

    2020 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist %
    Eva Lawler Labor 2,261 57.9 +2.7 55.3
    Leanne Butler Country Liberal 1,644 42.1 -2.7 44.7

    Booth breakdown
    The only ordinary booth in the current boundaries of Drysdale is Woodroffe, but part of Bakewell was also added to the seat in the redistribution. The ALP won both booths, winning by more in Woodroffe.

    Almost two thirds of the vote was cast at pre-poll centres, and Labor won 55.2% of the two-party-preferred vote there.

    Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
    Pre-poll 55.2 2,785 65.8
    Other votes 54.0 919 21.7
    Woodroffe 61.2 341 8.0
    Bakewell 52.5 188 4.5

    Polling places surrounding Drysdale at the 2020 ACT election

    2 COMMENTS

    1. Thoughts on the very real possibility that Eva Lawler could become the third NT Chief Minister and the first NT Labor leader to be unseated at a general election? Currently the redistribution makes it marginal (Labor’s margin is 55.3%).

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