ALP 5.3%
Incumbent MP
Eva Lawler, since 2016.
Geography
Palmerston. Drysdale covers central parts of the city of Palmerston, to the east of Darwin. Drysdale covers the suburbs of Yarrawonga, Gray and Gunn.
Redistribution
Drysdale shifted north-east, taking in Gunn from Brennan and losing Moulden to Blain. These changes reduced the Labor margin from 7.9% to 5.3%.
History
The electorate of Drysdale has existed since 1997. The Country Liberal Party had won the seat at all but one seat up until 2016, but the seat has been in Labor hands for the last two terms.
The CLP’s Stephen Dunham won Drysdale, and held the seat for two terms. Drysdale was considered to be very safe before the 2005 election, when Dunham lost in a shock result to Labor’s Chris Natt.
Natt only held Drysdale for one term, losing the seat in 2008 to the CLP’s Ross Bohlin.
Bohlin himself only lasted for one term. He lost preselection in the lead up to the 2012 election, and ran for the seat unsuccessfully as an independent, losing to the CLP’s Lia Finocchiaro.
Finocchiaro ran for the new seat of Spillett in 2016, and Labor’s Eva Lawler won Drysdale with a swing of 16.6%.
Lawler was re-elected in 2020, and was elected Labor leader and Chief Minister in late 2023 following the resignation of Natasha Fyles.
- Clinton Howe (Country Liberal)
- Eva Lawler (Labor)
Assessment
Drysdale is not a particularly safe seat, and is held in an area which has not traditionally been a good area for Labor. But Lawler is now the Chief Minister, and would have a good chance of winning re-election even if Labor does poorly overall.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Eva Lawler | Labor | 1,648 | 42.2 | +1.2 | 41.8 |
| Leanne Butler | Country Liberal | 1,023 | 26.2 | -8.3 | 30.3 |
| Fiona Lynch | Territory Alliance | 533 | 13.6 | +13.6 | 12.6 |
| Lash Lisson | Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water | 226 | 5.8 | +5.8 | 3.9 |
| Danielle Eveleigh | Independent | 211 | 5.4 | +5.4 | 3.7 |
| Raj Samson Rajwin | Independent | 179 | 4.6 | +4.6 | 3.1 |
| Brendan Killalea | Independent | 85 | 2.2 | +2.2 | 1.5 |
| Others | 3.2 | ||||
| Informal | 204 | 5.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist % |
| Eva Lawler | Labor | 2,261 | 57.9 | +2.7 | 55.3 |
| Leanne Butler | Country Liberal | 1,644 | 42.1 | -2.7 | 44.7 |
Booth breakdown
The only ordinary booth in the current boundaries of Drysdale is Woodroffe, but part of Bakewell was also added to the seat in the redistribution. The ALP won both booths, winning by more in Woodroffe.
Almost two thirds of the vote was cast at pre-poll centres, and Labor won 55.2% of the two-party-preferred vote there.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Pre-poll | 55.2 | 2,785 | 65.8 |
| Other votes | 54.0 | 919 | 21.7 |
| Woodroffe | 61.2 | 341 | 8.0 |
| Bakewell | 52.5 | 188 | 4.5 |
Polling places surrounding Drysdale at the 2020 ACT election
A string clp campaign here could force Labor and Lawler to campaign here and divert extra resources and time.
Thoughts on the very real possibility that Eva Lawler could become the third NT Chief Minister and the first NT Labor leader to be unseated at a general election? Currently the redistribution makes it marginal (Labor’s margin is 55.3%).
There’s a possibility Eva Lawler could lose her own seat in 2024 given the margin.