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This is a seat Libs need to target when they can form a government and try and keep over the course of a Coalition government. It is one of the few 2015 losses along with Strathfield and Gosford they regret losing.
Agree, both Gosford and The Entrance are seen as the ‘swing’ seats of the Central Coast region. Terrigal is conservative leaning due to its location on the coast with higher numbers of affluent, ‘boomer’ voters whereas Wyong and Swansea are considered Labor leaning.
Entrance is Labor inclined.
Gosford similar to the old Peats
Terrigal is similar to the old Gosford but liberal inclined
As said above by Nimalan and Votante this should be a key target in 2027. It’s the Liberals’ best bet at a second Central Coast seat.
Gosford would be up there too but the margin is too big at the moment. Wyong would be even harder but in a really good year maybe. Swansea would be the most difficult to win.
@Mick, Terrigal essentially is the old Gosford just without Gosford itself. It was marginal because Terrigal is so Liberal (like the Northern Beaches) while Gosford is a swing area.
Yes, The Entrance has the smallest Labor 2PP on the Central Coast, but it’s still upwards of of nearly 8%.
@NP Unless the Liberals act like their Queensland counterparts, and go hard on the crime aspect in Gosford (due to Woy Woy being in the seat, and the area being a hotspot for crime), I doubt they’ll overcome such a gap.
The only other time aside from 2011 that the Liberals were able to win a seat not named Terrigal (or pre-2007 Gosford) on the Central Coast was in 1991, in this very seat, and it was overturned a few months later. So the Liberals have a lot of work to do to try and be competitive in this area, especially with the overlapping Federal seats becoming within a wisp of being safe Labor seats.
What is the definition of ‘swing seat’?
As Mick mentions, Gosford is the old Peats.
Peats was created in 1973. In 2007 Peats was renamed Gosford and the old Gosford was renamed Terrigal.
Wyong was renamed Munmorah in 1973. Then renamed Tuggerah in 1981 and back to Wyong in 1988.
The Entrance was created in 1988 and has existed continuously since then. I believe that it was created from part of Tuggerah and part of Gosford.
Looking at electoral results over the 50 years 1973-2023.
Peats / New Gosford has been won by Labor at every election except for 2011.
Old Gosford / Terrigal has been won by the Labor at 4 elections and by Liberal Party at 11 elections. It hasn’t been won by Labor since The Entrance was created.
Munmorah / Tuggerah / Wyong has been won by Labor at every election except 2011.
The Entrance has been won by Labor at every election except for 1988 and 2011.
Terrigal, with a margin of 1.2%, is currently the only marginal state seat on the Central Coast.
Are the one win in 50 year seats really swing seats?
@ Watson Watch
In 1991 the result in this seat was close and it was originally declared that Libs won by 116 votes. The Court of Disputed Returns overturned in and in a by-election in 1992 the Libs lost it. Had they won with a bigger margin in 1991 they could have held it for two terms or duration of Greiner/Fahey government. In 2015, Libs did not have a sitting member as Chris Spence had ICAC issues and he retired. Even then Libs only lost by 0.4% Had they had a sitting MP in 2015 they could well have won it and mitigated the swing. It is also possible if they had a popular member they could have built a personal vote and won in 2019. This would have made the path back to power in 2023 steeper.