LIB 19.6%
Incumbent MP
Mark Speakman, since 2011.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Cronulla covers parts of Sutherland Shire, including the suburbs of Burraneer, Caringbah, Cronulla, Grays Point, Gymea Bay, Kurnell, Lilli Pilli, Port Hacking, Woolooware and Yowie Bay.
The district of Cronulla has existed since 1959. In that time, it has been won by the Liberal Party at all but two elections.
Cronulla was first won in 1959 by Liberal MP Ian Griffith. He had won the seat of Sutherland in 1956, and moved to the new seat of Cronulla after the redistribution shifted Sutherland into Labor areas.
Griffith served as a minister from 1972 to 1975, and again for the final few months of the Coalition government in 1976. Griffith lost Liberal preselection in 1978 and retired.
The ALP’s Michael Egan won Cronulla in 1978. He was re-elected in 1981, but lost in 1984. Egan was elected to the Legislative Council in 1986. He became Treasurer when the ALP won power in 1995, serving in the role until his retirement in 2005.
Egan was defeated in 1984 by Liberal candidate Malcolm Kerr. Kerr was re-elected in 1988, 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003 and 2007.
In 2011, Kerr retired and was succeeded by Mark Speakman. Speakman has been re-elected twice.
Assessment
Cronulla is a safe Liberal seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Speakman | Liberal | 32,484 | 63.5 | +1.6 |
| Teressa Farhart | Labor | 11,866 | 23.2 | +1.3 |
| Jon Doig | Greens | 3,789 | 7.4 | -1.7 |
| Phillip Burriel | Keep Sydney Open | 1,738 | 3.4 | +3.4 |
| Richard Moran | Sustainable Australia | 1,264 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Informal | 1,321 | 2.5 |
2019 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Mark Speakman | Liberal | 33,349 | 69.6 | -1.3 |
| Teressa Farhart | Labor | 14,556 | 30.4 | +1.3 |
Booths in Cronulla have been split into three parts: central, east or west.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 66% in the west to 73.4% in the centre.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 73.4 | 12,961 | 25.3 |
| East | 70.6 | 11,513 | 22.5 |
| West | 66.0 | 9,715 | 19.0 |
| Pre-poll | 69.6 | 9,073 | 17.7 |
| Other votes | 66.2 | 7,879 | 15.4 |
Election results in Cronulla at the 2019 NSW state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.
Like the federal seat of cook the LNP has strengthened the hold here.
@Bob, correct this area has improved over the years for the Libs. Cook was once an outer suburban mortgage belt but these days it has an older and wealthier demographic. Parts of Casey around Lilydale show a similar trend and a more recent example is Aston.
They have also been blessed with Mark Speakman as their local MP. One of the greats.
Yes two things one it has got safer for the liberals not like Miranda which competitive in the right circumstances and also includes suburbs like Como which are stronger for Labor. But that does not explain it all… Speak man has built up a personal vote of roughly 5% plus
Unclear Como refers to Miranda
Could he be next leader of the opposition. Also it is not impossible that the nats hold more seats than the liberals but would need a very bad result for the coalition and teal wins
Right 63 left all else 37..2pp 69 lib 31alp
The opv bonus is not that high..I cannot see here how alp will outpoll on primary votes.. so the opv bonus will still go to libs.. but expect a general 2pp swing to Labor and liberal retain
True that Moderate. One of the best.
Possibility that Speakman will scurry off to federal parliament if Morrison retires before his term expires after the state election, which is what has been reported in the Herald (if memory recalls correctly). Making for two by-elections.
That is, it would appear that someone other than Speakman would get Cook seeing as though he’s renominating for Cronulla. Or, I’m overestimating the organisational capacity of the party.
Certain liberal retain
The Liberals obviously don’t expect to win in 2027 otherwise Matt Kean would have ran, No first term NSW government has lost since Jack Lang I believe. It’s been a long time, but it might have been even longer.
Speakman is 63, and will be 67 at the next election, and hypothetically he would be 71 at the end of a first term as premier. I am doubting the Liberals believe he will be premier and expect to be in opposition for at least 8 years.
Much afoot.