GRN 10.5% vs LNP
Incumbent MP
Max Chandler-Mather, since 2022.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Griffith covers the suburbs of Brisbane on the south side of the Brisbane river across the river from the Brisbane CBD, including South Brisbane itself, as well as Greenslopes, Holland Park, Kangaroo Point, East Brisbane, Coorparoo, Carina, Seven Hills, Morningside, Balmoral and Bulimba.
History
Griffith was created for the 1934 election, replacing the original seat of Oxley which was abolished at that election. Both Oxley and Griffith have been marginal seats, with Griffith swinging back and forth regularly between the Liberal Party and the ALP since 1949, although this has not usually coincided with national changes. The seat had become relatively safe for the ALP since it was won by Kevin Rudd in 1998, but has since become more marginal, with Labor finally losing the seat in 2022.
The seat was first won in 1934 by Labor MP Francis Baker, who had previously won the seat of Oxley off the United Australia Party, ironically at an election when the UAP swept away the federal Labor government.
Baker was re-elected in 1937, but was killed in a car accident in 1939 at the age of 36. Ironically his father was elected to federal parliament in Maranoa in 1940, after his son’s term in Parliament.
The 1939 Griffith by-election was won by Labor candidate William Conelan. Conelan held the seat until he lost Griffith to Liberal candidate Douglas Berry in 1949.
Berry was re-elected in 1951 but lost to the ALP’s Wilfred Coutts. Coutts held on in 1955 but failed to win re-election in 1958, losing to the Liberal Party’s Arthur Chresby, and winning it back in 1961.
Coutts lost the seat once again in 1966, when the seat was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron held the seat for eleven years, moving to the new seat of Fadden in 1977. He held Fadden until his defeat in 1983, and returned to Parliament at the 1983 Moreton by-election, which he held until his retirement in 1990.
The ALP regained Griffith in 1977, with Ben Humphreys winning the seat. Humphreys served as a minister in the Hawke/Keating government from 1987 until 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
The ALP preselected Kevin Rudd, but he lost to Graeme McDougall (LIB). McDougall only held on for one term, losing to Rudd in 1998. Rudd joined the ALP shadow ministry in 2001 as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, a role he held for five years.
Rudd’s profile rose as Shadow Foreign Minister, and he was considered a contender for the ALP leadership when Simon Crean resigned in 2003 and when Mark Latham resigned in 2005, but he waited until late 2006 when he challenged Kim Beazley, and was elected leader, and then proceeded to win the 2007 federal election, becoming Prime Minister.
Kevin Rudd was removed as Labor leader and Prime Minister in June 2010, and was re-elected in Griffith as a Labor backbencher. He returned to the ministry as Foreign Minister following the election. He returned to the backbench as part of a failed challenge to Julia Gillard’s leadership in February 2012. Kevin Rudd again challenged for the Labor leadership in June 2013, and returned to the Prime Ministership.
Rudd led Labor to defeat at the 2013 election – he was re-elected in Griffith with a 3% margin, but resigned shortly after. The seat was won at an early 2014 by-election by Labor’s Terri Butler, in the face of a 1.25% swing to the Liberal National Party. Butler was re-elected in 2016 and 2019.
Butler lost to Greens candidate Max Chandler-Mather in 2022, with Butler falling into third place.
- Max Chandler-Mather (Greens)
- Lindsay Bell (One Nation)
- Renee Coffey (Labor)
- Dion Hunt (People First)
- Andrea Campbell (Family First)
- Anthony Bishop (Liberal National)
- Aaron Hayes (Trumpet of Patriots)
Assessment
This seat is a complex race to watch, but the Greens are in a stronger position here then in their other two inner Brisbane electorates. The progressive two-candidate-majority majority is quite substantial, and the Greens have quite a large lead over Labor in the three-candidate-preferred count. Chandler-Mather has a good shot at winning a second term.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Max Chandler-Mather | Greens | 36,771 | 34.6 | +10.9 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 32,685 | 30.7 | -10.2 |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 30,769 | 28.9 | -2.0 |
| Shari Ware | One Nation | 3,504 | 3.3 | +1.2 |
| Robert Gordon McMullan | United Australia | 2,581 | 2.4 | +1.0 |
| Informal | 2,169 | 2.0 | -0.3 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
| Max Chandler-Mather | Greens | 64,271 | 60.5 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 42,039 | 39.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Terri Butler | Labor | 64,923 | 61.1 | +8.2 |
| Olivia Roberts | Liberal National | 41,387 | 38.9 | -8.2 |
Booths have been divided into four areas: Bulimba in the north, Greenslopes in the south, South Brisbane in the west and a series of booths along the eastern boundary.
There are two different thresholds that decide who wins Griffith: firstly, who is leading in the race between Labor and the Greens? And then, after preferences, does the LNP have a majority against the main progressive opponent?
On a two-candidate-preferred basis, the Greens won a majority in all four areas, ranging from 58% in Bulimba to 69.7% in South Brisbane. The Greens also polled over 60% of the pre-poll vote.
On a primary vote basis, the Greens outpolled Labor in all four areas, with the Greens primary vote peaking at 44.5% in South Brisbane. Labor’s vote peaked at 30% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ALP prim | GRN 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Bulimba | 32.6 | 28.2 | 58.1 | 15,493 | 14.6 |
| South Brisbane | 44.5 | 27.2 | 69.7 | 12,008 | 11.3 |
| Greenslopes | 37.5 | 29.6 | 64.9 | 11,098 | 10.4 |
| East | 32.4 | 30.0 | 59.5 | 6,823 | 6.4 |
| Pre-poll | 35.0 | 28.4 | 60.7 | 35,773 | 33.6 |
| Other votes | 29.8 | 30.4 | 55.5 | 25,115 | 23.6 |
Election results in Griffith at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Greens vs LNP), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Greens, the Liberal National Party and Labor.
The coalition would rather support labor because the greens are more radical and will always support labor they learned their lesson when they got adam bandt elected.
The Liberals have basically no chance of winning this seat outside of a landslide. So it’s arguably in their best interests to finish third, where they can at least make trouble between Labor and the Greens with their preferences.
Their best chance is a in a vs green contest they absolutely can no longer win a vs Labor contest. Their best chance is to leave a greens mp in.
@real talk to me makes the most sense LNP have for years talked about a two term strategy to get back into gov. Force ALP into minority gov and then win just like Abbot did.
To do this they would be better off preferencing MCM over Coffey.
The LNP has a Greens-last policy. In Wills, the Libs have Greens lower than a Socialist party.
LNP has One Nation second for their Senate HTV in QLD and other states. This might put off soft moderate or leaning Liberal voters in inner Brisbane.
I don’t know why because no ones forcing them to vote that way as long as you vote number 1 LNP you can send your vote anywherr
Does One Nation conjure up the outrage that it used to? They have become part of the political furniture and frankly there are a lot of worse options further to the right or on the far left. Or is the outrage just confected or just habit? They are not my cup of tea but they are there and are fairly predictable.
One Nation are alot more popular in qld then they are anywhere else. They delivered Pauline Hanson to the lower house even after she got disendorsed by the liberal party. She has outlasted all the liberals save a few remainders in parliament from her time. One Nation used to be a political outcast fringe party and now is becoming mainstream. Paulines legacy will be that one nation survives and is alternative centre right party as the greens are on the left it won’t be long before every state delives a onp senator in addition to 2 liberals as opposed to 3 liberals
From polling could even happen this time, they’re at the point where they’ll be strongly competitive in every state except maybe Vic (ironic since they gave Clive his only senator last time) according to Poll Bludger’s state breakdowns.
Pauline Hanson was elected to the House of Representatives as a dis-endorsed Liberal in an election with a big swing to the Liberals. She still had the Liberal name next to her on the ballot paper, despite her dis-endorsement. She created One Nation during her term in the Lower House, ran for the new seat of Blair, and lost.
To say “they” (One Nation) delivered Pauline Hanson to the House is incorrect.
Usually disendorsed candidates fail. See the liberals in Lyons in 2019. Labor in 2010 in Melbourne and the nationals in Cessnock in 2023.
Despite their flagging position I still the lobs will make serious inroads into working class outer suburban seats. And prime them for wins in 2028. Seats like Bruce, Holt, Hawke, Gorton, Hunter, Shortland, Blair.
I’m assuming with the libs running a no profile candidate, general anti Dutton sentiment put out buy the greens candidate, that this will push them into third. Labor Gain
That’s was dumb on the greens behalf
It’s in the greens interest to keep the libs in the 2cp
@FuzzyBrief isn’t it crazy to think that a seat that on BCC results is LNP-held would be a seat that federally the LNP finish third. It’s already crazy enough that the LNP hold it on the BCC level, Labor on the state level and the Greens federally (at least for now, if the polls are correct then MCM will lose).
@netherportal – yep I don’t think there’s another situation like it across Australia. I think the greens hold was just a lucky combination of events that lead to Greensland, and it will fall come this election. Not long to find out if it was just a fad. To me the Teals seem better placed to retain (minus Vic) then the greens.
I think the libs gave good chance at winning all but warringah and wentworth. But yes the vic ones are more likely and I think Curtin
Expect Greens primary to hold and retain this seat
I think it’s possible that the LNP falls to third place and Labor wins with preference flows from LNP. I did think this is possible following the QLD election result in South Brisbane.
It all hinges on MCM’s personal popularity. I get that he’s polarising but unless you are enrolled in this electorate, you don’t decide whether he hangs on. The MCM that you know may not be the same guy that people in this electorate know. He might get a primary vote increase.
some people that voted ALP last time may well switch to the Greens now that they know that they can win the seat and can be a decent local member
Anecdotally, that’s exactly what my parents are doing. We will see whether that sophomore surge materialises widely on Saturday.
The south Brisbane result wasn’t a result of lnp vote falling and making it to 3rd place. The lnp were already in 3rd place in 2020, in 2020 they simply preferences the greens to get rid of Jackie trad and at this election they prefenced Labor. If anything they gained votes and if onp preferences had of been stronger towards them they would have made the 2cp and greens would have won on Labor preferences. If history teaches us anything greens mps actually experience a vote increase as Adam bandt originally only made it in on Lib preferences and then eventually won on primaries
John
For One nation preferences to be worth anything they have to not only stand candidates but also man booths. They seem to be able to do the former but not the latter.
For Preference negotiations to work the minor party has to be able to deliver votes. With about 1 in 4 voters refusing to take any HTV and even more taking no notice of them One Nation will be treated like a Second Hand Car Saleman when trying to negotiate preference deals. The tactics PHON use when negotiating is “Give us your 2nd preference and then we will talk.
The Greens have the problem that they are not able to get their voters to vote against the ALP therefore that have nothing to negotiate with.
On Prepoll at Morayfield it has been clear that a Sizable percentage of voters think the parties determine a voter’s preferences after d that the voter has no say in this.
I have come accross a number of voters who think that if you vote for Party A then the Preference order lodged by Party Applies but when Party B has First Preference then Party B’s preferences take over.
A LNP volunteer and I spent fifteen minutes yesterday creating a special HTV for one lady trying marking numbers onto The LNP HTV she wanted to vote for Rennick in Senate but did not want to vote for anyone in House as No Rennick Candidate.
Nothing could persuade her that if she voted 1 Family First, 2 Libertarian , 3 LNP, 4 ALP, 5 Greens that the Family First preference order would not apply. She was anxious because FF HTV not available.
AEC needs to spend money explaining how preference voting works
Or perhaps they need to force parties to use a name other than “how to vote” cards.
@North by West that’d help but there’s still a lot of people who don’t understand. My mum actually voted last week and we only found out when she got home and told us that she’d stuffed up the senate (voted both above and below). Electoral education is desperately needed in this country.
I previously thought this seat might be a Greens loss by Liberals falling to 3rd on 3CP and electing Labor. I still think the latter will happen but I believe MCM has now gathered a large enough primary vote to win under this circumstance too. So Greens retain.
The former*
@Adda, same. I think Max could get 40% or close to that. With both Labor and Libs in the mid to high 20s. And from there they cant catch him.