IND 3.9% vs LIB
Incumbent MP
Zoe Daniel, since 2022.
Geography
Inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. Goldstein covers the entirety of Bayside council area, and parts of Glen Eira and Kingston council areas. Key suburbs include Sandringham, Brighton, Hampton, Beaumaris, Ormond and Bentleigh.
Redistribution
Goldstein expanded slightly east, taking in part of Bentleigh East from Hotham and part of Moorabbin and the remainder of Highett from Isaacs.
History
Goldstein was first created in 1984, but is considered a successor to the previous Division of Balaclava, which existed from the first federal election in 1901 until its abolition in 1984. The two seats have a perfect record of having never been won by the Labor Party, and they have been held continously by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909.
Balaclava was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate George Turner. Turner had been Premier of Victoria from 1894 to 1899 and again from 1900 until early in 1901, and was the state MP for St Kilda. Turner was Treasurer in Edmund Barton’s first federal government. He won re-election as a Protectionist in 1903 but he accepted the role of Treasurer in George Reid’s Free Trade government in 1904, which effectively saw him switch parties. Turner retired in 1906.
Balaclava was won in 1906 by Independent Protectionist candidate Agar Wynne. Wynne was a former minister in Victorian colonial governments. He joined the newly created Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909 and served in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. Wynne did not run for re-election in 1914, although he returned to Victorian state politics from 1917 to 1920 and briefly served as a state minister.
Balaclava was won in 1914 by Liberal candidate William Watt. Watt had been Premier of Victoria from 1912 to 1914, and became a federal minister in 1917 as part of the new Nationalist government led by former Labor prime minister Billy Hughes. Watt was appointed Treasurer in 1918 and served as Acting Prime Minister when Hughes traveled to the Versailles peace conference in 1919.
Watt, however, fell out with Hughes upon his return. He was appointed as a representative of the Australian government at a conference on reparations, but Hughes’ constant meddling led him to resign as Treasurer and return to Australia as a backbencher.
Watt was one of a small group of rebel Liberals who ran as the Liberal Union party in 1922, and won re-election. They rejoined the Nationalists after Hughes was replaced by Stanley Bruce, and Watt became Speaker, serving in the role until 1926. He retired from Balaclava in 1929.
Watt’s retirement triggered a by-election, which was won by Nationalist candidate Thomas White. White served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1933 to 1938, and served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his resignation in 1951.
Balaclava was won at the 1951 by-election by Liberal candidate Percy Joske. He held the seat until his resignation in 1960, when he was appointed as a judge on the Commonwealth Industrial Court. The 1960 by-election was won by Ray Whittorn, also from the Liberal Party. He held the seat until his retirement at the 1974 election.
Balaclava was won in 1974 by Ian Macphee, who served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1976 to 1983. In 1984, the seat of Balaclava was abolished and replaced by the seat of Goldstein, and Macphee won the new seat.
Macphee was a Liberal moderate, and took Andrew Peacock’s side in his conflict with John Howard throughout the 1980s. Macphee served as a shadow minister under Peacock, but was sacked in 1987 by Howard. He was defeated for preselection before the 1990 election by right-wing candidate David Kemp.
Kemp won Goldstein in 1990, and immediately went onto the opposition frontbench. Kemp joined the ministry upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served as a minister until three months before his retirement in 2004.
Goldstein was won in 2004 by the Liberal Party’s Andrew Robb, who had been the party’s Federal Director at the 1996 election. Robb was re-elected four times before retiring in 2016.
Robb was succeeded in 2016 by Tim Wilson, a former Human Rights Commissioner. Wilson was re-elected in 2019.
Wilson was defeated in 2022 by independent candidate Zoe Daniel.
Assessment
Goldstein is marginal, but Zoe Daniel as a first-term independent will likely benefit from a personal vote. History suggests that vote could be quite big.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 39,607 | 40.4 | -12.3 | 39.6 |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 33,815 | 34.5 | +34.5 | 31.3 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 10,799 | 11.0 | -17.3 | 13.6 |
| Alana Galli-McRostie | Greens | 7,683 | 7.8 | -6.2 | 8.4 |
| David Segal | Liberal Democrats | 2,072 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Reynolds | United Australia | 1,840 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 2.1 |
| Lisa Stark | One Nation | 1,239 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.4 |
| Ellie Jean Sullivan | Hinch’s Justice Party | 589 | 0.6 | +0.6 | 0.5 |
| Brandon Hoult | Sustainable Australia | 443 | 0.5 | -1.2 | 0.4 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 3,487 | 3.4 | +1.2 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Zoe Daniel | Independent | 51,861 | 52.9 | 53.9 | |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 46,226 | 47.1 | 46.1 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Tim Wilson | Liberal | 53,750 | 54.8 | -3.0 | 53.7 |
| Martyn Abbott | Labor | 44,337 | 45.2 | +3.0 | 46.3 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayside City or Kingston City have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Brighton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. Booths in Glen Eira council area have been grouped together.
The Liberal Party narrowly won the two-candidate-preferred vote in Brighton. The three other areas include booths added from neighbouring seats, but in those areas the combined independent and Labor two-candidate-preferred vote was a majority, ranging from 53.3% in Beaumaris to 58.8% in Glen Eira.
| Voter group | ALP prim | IND+ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Glen Eira | 18.0 | 58.8 | 16,440 | 15.2 |
| Sandringham | 15.1 | 58.0 | 12,688 | 11.7 |
| Brighton | 7.9 | 49.9 | 10,427 | 9.7 |
| Beaumaris | 9.8 | 53.3 | 7,813 | 7.2 |
| Pre-poll | 12.3 | 53.3 | 37,614 | 34.8 |
| Other votes | 15.6 | 48.1 | 23,069 | 21.4 |
Election results in Goldstein at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent or Labor vs Liberal), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, independent candidates and Labor.
for that same reason labor will probably lose Wills to the Greens and the greens may resurge in places like Melbourne and Griffith. they wiill probably continue to make inroads in Fraser but thats probably at least a 2031 problem for labor. Labor was able to get swings to them everywhere else so the fact they have gone backwards in other seats means their is some underlying dissatisfaction. likewise other seats where they are probably in trouble against the coalition in seats where they managed to minute swings and/or labor got virtually no swing compared to rest of the country. for example Lisa Chesters got an almost 10% swing against her.
@john why would people vote for Tim Wilson after he lost the seat but not for Daniel? He seems to have run on the same platform in 2025 as he lost on in 2022
I don’t agree that there’s enough data to make confident claims about how teals “tend to do”. Teals as strictly defined have only existed since the 2022 election, and even broadening the definition to include e.g. Zali Steggall the “incumbent government” they were up against was always a Coalition one. If you cast the net wider to “Voices of” Independents, well Cathy McGowan unseated a Liberal MP in an election the Coalition took office from Labor, so hardly an illustration of frustration at an incumbent government.
My read on the teals, conversely, has always been that they target a small-l liberal constituency that has been a part of the Liberal Party since its formation but has increasingly felt (with some justification) to be sidelined within and by that party. There isn’t, directly, an inroad for that pitch against Labor incumbents but of course that doesn’t mean those types of voters don’t exist in those seats and those campaigns demonstrably have legs.
But more broadly I think it’s silly to project national swings three years out and then apply them to necessarily local campaigns. Goldstein in 2025 defied the national trend as you define it (although I also dispute this definition, because it involves conflating Labor with the Teals in a way that is not consistently applied elsewhere), Indi in 2013 did likewise. It’s better to view the teals as their own thing, if they are even viewed as a single movement, and not to attempt to predict their fortunes on the basis of presumed swings towards an essentially unrelated party three years hence.
@bazza and that should tell you something. except this time he didnt have scomo dragging him down. last time people were voting against the government
@john Dutton seems have dragged down more liberal MPs than scomo ever did
@John that’s why I don’t think Zoe Daniel will even bother running again unless there’s someone worse than Dutton who becomes leader.
There’s an interview with Tim Wilson on how he won it back and he said the two things for him were being ahead of the national campaign as it was likely it would drag the local campaign back, and that the leader (once again) would be less helpful than more helpful (Tim Wilson was apparently told that Dutton had written him off). In some regards, Dutton was another anchor like Scomo, some would say arguably even worse and that Tim Wilson’s achievement is even greater because of that.
Agree WL, Dutton was seen as a pseudo-Trump figure given his rhetoric on issues like WFH and referring to young, tertiary educated voters as ‘elites’. This played poorly in all the inner-city districts, and it is the credit of candidates like Tim Wilson, Amelia Hamer and Giselle Kapterian for running a more localised, personal campaign that enabled them to distinguish themselves from the national brand and minimise the swing against them.
@bazza that’s my point. Even despite that Wilson was reflected and hamer almost got Ryan. Imagine what would have happened if he didn’t drag them down
@john – you say that ScoMo and Dutton both dragged Tim down – yet he lost 1 and won 1
Yes. So obviously Zoe Daniel isn’t that good of an mp. I did say he was gonna win and all the haters kept saying he should move on. And he was gonna get thumped etc etc.
Let’s also assume that the donkey vote is worth 1% so she got that and still lost.
I’ve gone through the seats and based off that. Longman and if she retains it Bradfield were the only seats where the Donkey Vote has saved the winning party
Tim Wilson must not be that good of an MP if he got voted out in 2022
That was on the back of anti govt and anti Morrison campaign it wasn’t just tim Wilson who lost his seat in 2022. But he’s the only liberal towing a seat for the coalition. They weren’t voting against Tim Wilson personally but the liberals in general.
I sense that there was a swing from Zoe Daniel to Labor and not all of those voters preferenced her ahead of Tim Wilson. Maybe a lower percentage did so than in 2022. In 2022, 81.5% of Labor voters put Zoe Daniel ahead of Tim Wilson.
@WL, to Wilson’s credit, he branched away from the Labor vs Liberal schism and ran on his personal brand. He found his way away from the national spotlight which was on Albanese and Dutton. Dutton made a fuel stop in Caulfield with Wilson to spruik the fuel excise cut but that was probably the only time they were seen together this election campaign. I believe he also had a large volunteer army as did Amelia Hamer. You couldn’t really sense much of a Liberal campaign at all in either Wentworth, Warringah or Mackeller.
According to the abc website.zoe Daniel experienced a 0.5% swing Labor vote was stagnat and Wilson’s vote increased 4% in line with decline in others. So it appears his swing came from the others who preferences Daniel last time
Labor’s primary vote was steady but this includes the newly redistributed suburbs of Moorabbin and Bentleigh East. The Labor primary vote fell only because of a new entrant in the game. At nearly all the other booths, in the old and new Goldstein, there were swings to Labor.
wilson’s lead down to 258 on the partial recount
Tim will be shadow IR minister if he gets elected
lead here down to 244
I think based on this and the Bradfield recount a margin of under 20 might be enough to have reasonable doubt over the final result
The partial recount here has wrapped up with Tim Wilson now having a 175 vote lead with all the first preference votes counted and informal votes checked.
Tim Wilson will officially be the new member for Goldstein. Zoe Daniel has also conceded defeat, though has hinted she may run again in 2028.
that was quite a correction. Make me think that if the margin in any seat is less than say 50 there would be enough doubt that it would be a valid win