IND 1.4% vs ALP
Incumbent MP
Dai Le, since 2022.
Geography
South-western Sydney, in particular parts of Liverpool and Fairfield council areas. Fowler covers the Liverpool CBD and the suburbs of Cabramatta, Canley Vale, Lansvale, Bonnyrigg, Chipping Norton, Warwick Farm and Bossley Park.
Redistribution
Fowler slightly expanded to the north, taking in part of Wetherill Park from McMahon. On paper this reduced Le’s margin from 1.6% to 1.4%, although Le was not on the ballot in these new areas so she did not receive any votes there.
History
Fowler was first created for the 1984 election as part of the expansion of the size of the House of Representatives. It had always been a very safe Labor seat until 2022.
The seat was first won in 1984 by the ALP’s Ted Grace. Grace held the seat for fourteen years, retiring in 1998. He was succeeded by Julia Irwin, also from the ALP. Irwin held the seat until 2010.
In 2010, Irwin retired and he was replaced as Labor candidate by Chris Hayes. Hayes had held the neighbouring seat of Werriwa for five years, but had been forced to change seats to make room for Laurie Ferguson, whose seat had effectively been abolished. Hayes had been re-elected in Fowler three times.
Hayes retired in 2022, and the ALP ended up preselecting former premier and sitting senator Kristina Keneally. Keneally was set to lose her Senate seat and was seen as a leading figure in the party. Hayes had instead supported Tu Le, but the party chose Keneally. Keneally ended up going on to lose to Fairfield deputy mayor Dai Le, running as an independent.
Assessment
Dai Le is an incumbent MP and history suggests she is likely to strengthen her hold on this seat. Labor has now preselected the candidate they turned down in 2022, but this might be too little too late.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 30,973 | 36.1 | -18.5 | 36.6 |
| Dai Le | Independent | 25,346 | 29.5 | +29.5 | 28.3 |
| Courtney Nguyen | Liberal | 14,740 | 17.2 | -12.9 | 17.6 |
| Lela Panich | United Australia | 5,512 | 6.4 | +2.1 | 6.6 |
| Avery Howard | Greens | 4,191 | 4.9 | -0.7 | 4.9 |
| Tony Margos | One Nation | 3,047 | 3.5 | +3.6 | 3.6 |
| Peter Ronald Runge | Liberal Democrats | 2,094 | 2.4 | +2.4 | 2.4 |
| Informal | 10,098 | 10.5 | -2.6 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Dai Le | Independent | 44,348 | 51.6 | 51.4 | |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 41,555 | 48.4 | 48.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Kristina Keneally | Labor | 47,864 | 55.7 | -8.3 | 55.9 |
| Courtney Nguyen | Liberal | 38,039 | 44.3 | +8.3 | 44.1 |
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, south and west. The “south” area covers all those booths in the Liverpool council area, while those in Fairfield council area have been split into “central” and “west”.
Dai Le won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the centre (52.1%) and west (51.6%) while Labor won 52.7% in the south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.1% in the centre to 23.6% in the south.
| Voter group | LIB prim | IND 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 12.1 | 52.1 | 15,879 | 17.7 |
| West | 18.8 | 51.6 | 10,162 | 11.3 |
| South | 23.6 | 47.3 | 8,149 | 9.1 |
| Pre-poll | 16.9 | 49.8 | 42,961 | 48.0 |
| Other votes | 22.2 | 45.0 | 12,442 | 13.9 |
Election results in Fowler at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Independent vs Labor vs Labor), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, independent candidate Dai Le and the Liberal Party.
@ Votante
I said this before as well i think the Southern and Eastern European communities are drifting away from Labor over time. I think there is a couple of reasons for this
1. Upward mobility across generations
2. Acceptance by Anglo Australia and virtually included in the cultural majority
3. Right wing nationalists like ONP not being hostile to them
4. While many have integrated they have largely retained social conservativism, religious identity
I think this trend can be seen in Scullin, McMahon and Gorton as well. Even the muted swing in Menzies maybe attributed in part to the Southern European community. I dont think this will make Fowler, Scullin and McMahon in play for the Liberals in future as the growth in non Europeans in areas with affordable housing will offset this trend.
this is another seat im disapointed in the boundaries.
Hughes should have extended into Chipping Norton to the georges river and werriwa taken in the rest of liverpool. fowler could have easily been a fairfield only seat
@ John yes I feel Liverpool CBD should be in werriwa
@nimalan yes and that fairfield tail in mcmahon should be in werriwa probably along victoria streeet
if not along redfern and widemere street
@Nimalan, there are some interesting points and perhaps this is more prevalent in Western Sydney where there is more low-density housing and even McMansions. There are lots of people of Southern European descent in Barton, Reid and Banks. The first two are now safe Labor seats.
West of the Cumberland Hwy, the most common origins of immigrants, other than South-East Asia, are Iraq and Syria as well as Italy. Although most residents are Christian, there is a dispersed Muslim population. Muslim Votes Matter advocated a 1. Greens 2. Dai Le vote. This might’ve also helped Dai Le score a swing.
@Votante – could be something in there. Greens and Labor both increased primary – but TCP swing was to Dai Le