Deakin – Australia 2022

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  1. If the Labor party has a really good night they could pick up this seat, however I would still say that the liberal party will hold on.

  2. Does anyone know if Labor would have won this seat in 2010 on these boundaries. At that time it did not include strong Liberal areas like Croydon Hills/Warranwood in Menzies at the time and Vermont/Vermont South in Aston then. It also included areas better for Labor such as East Burwood and the entire share of Nunawading/Mitcham.

  3. Nimalan, have a look at the chart. The dotted green line is my estimate of the 2PP based on the 2022 boundaries. Labor wouldn’t have won here in 2007 or 2010.

  4. Thanks Bob and Ben, the Green dotted line is a great tool. The 2010 election was seen a high water mark for the Labor in Victoria. For that reason it will likely be a challenge for Labor to pick this up. It will be interesting if there any significant demographic changes in the seat since 2010. Unlike Latrobe, as Bob pointed out there is not significant population growth in Deakin.

  5. Deakin is fairly stable demographically. The western part of the seat is seeing an increase in the Asian community thanks to the Box Hill overflow, probably slightly benefiting Labor. But the eastern part has become more affluent and desirable over time, which probably helps the Liberals somewhat.

    So it balances out to not much change overall.

  6. Nimalan,
    Deakin is going under a massive demographic change. Ringwood, Ringwood East, Heathmont, Croydon, Croydon North, Croydon South & Croydon Hills are having the large properties being subdivided with where one house being replaced with 4-6 units. I don’t think in the short term it will benefit Labor but maybe in the long term this seat could change if the seat is not pushed further out east.

  7. Bob
    The other side of the coin is that in suburbs such as Blackburn, Mitcham and Heathmont, smaller houses (of which there a lot dating back to the early post war years) are being demolished and replaced by much larger houses, driving values up and attracting higher income folk.

  8. It still puzzles me that the Redistribution commissioners were quite willing to change the proposed boundaries of Higgins and Macnamara but not the execrable boundary mess between Menzies, Chisholm and Deakin which leaves Box Hill and Mitcham cut in two, and Blackburn into three. This was despite a lot of very reasonable objections and suggestions on how the boundaries could be improved.
    One thought I do have is that the Commissioners had already got it into their head that the 39th Victorian seat would only last one term and it would all have to be done again before 2025, and that Menzies would somehow have to cross the Yarra again either west into Eaglemont and Ivanhoe, or north into Eltham. If a seat had to go, it would probably have to be west of the Yarra rather than the east but one seat would have to cross the river to make it work.

  9. Redistributed,
    You make a fair point the seat has expensive suburbs with the prices continuing to go up. None the less this seat will be interesting to watch. I still think labor has a better chance in La Trobe then here.

  10. *Pressed enter too soon. All interesting commentary. Agree boundaries are not sensible especially in Blackburn with the primary school in Menzies, the station in Chisholm and library in Deakin. Canterbury road would have been a better divide between Menzies/Chisholm as it would not divide suburbs in two. There is a couple of other examples as a result of the recent redistribution which i felt could have been better managed; Yarraville divided between Fraser/Gellibrand, Mulgrave divided in 3 between Chisholm, Bruce and Hotham. The AEC allowed all of Burwood East to be united in Chisholm and Oakleigh East in Hotham but did not fix the above suburbs.

  11. Deakin has never been a safe seat for the Libs but the ALP have only managed to win it in 1983, 2007 and 2010. Like him or loathe him, Michael Sukkar has a high local profile and works pretty hard. They will also sand bag here pretty hard. I have been here for every election since 2001 (except 2019 when we moved to Chisholm without moving house) and it was only in 2007 and 2010 that the ALP put any concerted effort in. In 2013, it was very obvious that Mike Symon was outside the sandbag – very little obvious campaigning or resourcing going on.
    With the current boundaries, campaigning for the major parties in this area will be a nightmare – and the AEC are going to have their work cut out for them as well at all the local booths.


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