LNP 18.0%
Incumbent MP
Steven Ciobo, since 2001.
Geography
Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast, covering the coast from Miami to Paradise Waters and Southport, and as far inland as Nerang.
History
Moncrieff was first created at the 1984 election, and has always been held by the Liberal (National) Party.
The seat was first won in 1984 by Kathy Sullivan, who had been a Queensland senator since 1974. Sullivan held the seat until 2001, serving continuously in Parliament for 27 years, a record for any female parliamentarian. She served two brief terms in the Opposition shadow ministry in the 1980s and 1990s, and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government from 1997 to 2000.
Sullivan was succeeded in 2001 by Steven Ciobo. Ciobo has been elected in Moncrieff five times. He now serves as Minister for Trade.
Candidates
- Steven Ciobo (Liberal National)
- Hayden Sheppard (Labor)
- Julie Rose (Family First)
- Roger Brisbane (Greens)
Assessment
Moncrieff is a very safe LNP seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Ciobo | Liberal National | 44,295 | 55.7 | -6.2 |
| Jason Munro | Labor | 16,562 | 20.8 | -2.7 |
| Grant Pforr | Palmer United Party | 10,882 | 13.7 | +13.7 |
| Toni McPherson | Greens | 5,127 | 6.5 | -5.1 |
| Barrie Nicholson | Family First | 1,744 | 2.2 | -0.9 |
| Veronica Beric | One Nation | 600 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Paul Spajic | Citizens Electoral Council | 330 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Informal | 4,839 | 6.1 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Steven Ciobo | Liberal National | 54,051 | 68.0 | +0.5 |
| Jason Munro | Labor | 25,489 | 32.1 | -0.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.
The Liberal National Party’s two-party-preferred vote ranged from 63.3% in the west to 70.6% in the east.
The Palmer United Party’s primary vote ranged from 12.2% in the east to 18.6% in the west.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 12.2 | 70.6 | 19,617 | 24.7 |
| North | 14.3 | 63.5 | 14,054 | 17.7 |
| West | 18.6 | 63.3 | 13,987 | 17.6 |
| Other votes | 12.2 | 70.4 | 31,882 | 40.1 |
Election results in Moncrieff at the 2013 federal election
Click on the ‘visible layers’ box to toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Palmer United Party primary votes.
I grew up in this seat and my parents still live there. While I don’t think Ciobo is a great local member, I can’t see anything upsetting the Gold Coast’s general pro-LNP status quo.
Would be nice to have decent competition here though.
I suspect that one of the minors would do quite well in these areas – Lazarus or NXT come to mind. In a climate where LNP are getting a bit on-the-nose both state and federally because of leadership issues (LNP in Queensland because of Newman and his legacy, Federally because of Abbott and the switch to Turnbull), the Gold Coast would probably be quite open to a centre-right third party with some left-wing attitudes on some issues.
Which makes it kind of sad that none of those parties have candidates here, or in McPherson for the southern Gold Coast or Fadden for the northern Gold Coast.
You’re exactly right Glen. PUP did well across the coast in 2013, particularly by getting some established candidates (as former councillors) in Moncrieff and McPherson. This came partially from LNP and Labor voters, but also some Greens voters who wanted to protest against the major parties.
I think NXT would do well if they were campaigning in Queensland, but given their absence, I wouldn’t be surprised if the LNP primary vote goes up to 60% this year.
My prediction: Easy LNP hold.