Polwarth – Victoria 2022

LIB 2.0%

Incumbent MP
Richard Riordan, since 2015.

Geography
Southwestern Victoria. Polwarth covers regional areas between Geelong and Warrnambool including the towns of Anglesea, Lorne, Lismore, Colac, Camperdown and Torquay. Polwarth covers the entirety of the Colac Otway Shire, and most of the Corangamite and Surf Coast shires.

Redistribution
Polwarth moved closer to Geelong, gaining Torquay from South Barwon and losing Terang to South-West Coast and Mortlake to Lowan. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 5.4% to 2.0%.

History
Polwarth has existed as an electoral district in the Legislative Assembly since 1889. In that time it has never been held by the Labor Party. Except for the 1940s, when it was held by the Country Party, the Liberal Party and its predecessors have held the seat ever since the seat first elected party-aligned members in 1911.

Nationalist Party member James McDonald won Polwarth at a 1917 by-election. He served as a minister from 1924 to 1927, and held Polwarth until his death in 1933.

Allan McDonald, nephew of the former member, won the seat for the United Australia Party in 1933. He held the seat until 1940, when he stepped down to run for the federal seat of Corangamite. He held Corangamite until his death in 1953, serving as a prominent member of the conservative Opposition through the 1940s.

Edward Guye of the Country Party won Polwarth in 1940. He joined the Liberal Country Party in 1949, and served as a minister from 1949 to 1950. Guye held the seat until 1958, when he was succeeded by Thomas Darcy, also of the Liberal Country Party, which later was renamed the Liberal Party. Darcy served as a minister from 1964 to 1967, and then retired in 1970.

Darcy was succeeded in 1970 by Liberal candidate Cecil Burgin. He held Polwarth until 1985.

Polwarth was won in 1985 by Ian Smith. He had served as Member for Warrnambool from 1967 to 1983, serving as a minister in the Liberal state government from 1970 to 1982. He had resigned from Parliament following the defeat of the Liberal Party in 1982, but returned at the next election in Polwarth.

He returned as Minister for Finance from 1992 to 1995, and retired from Parliament in 1999.

The Liberal Party preselected Terry Mulder to run in Polwarth in 1999. He was challenged by retired footballer Paul Couch, who ran for the Nationals. He was considered to be a threat to the Liberal hold on Polwarth, but he failed to overtake the ALP, and his preferences helped Mulder easily win the seat.

Mulder was easily re-elected in 2002, and became a member of the shadow cabinet. He was considered to be a leadership contender prior to the 2006 state election.

Terry Mulder was re-elected again in 2006 and 2010. Mulder served as Minister for Public Transport and Roads from 2010 until 2014, and retired following the coalition government’s defeat in 2014.

The 2015 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Richard Riordan. Riordan was re-elected in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Polwarth is a marginal seat, and has become more marginal thanks to the redistribution.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Richard Riordan Liberal 20,629 51.1 -4.3 46.2
Douglas Johnston Labor 13,338 33.1 +5.1 31.4
Courtney Gardner Greens 3,949 9.8 -1.2 10.4
Damien Pitts Animal Justice 1,636 4.1 +4.1 3.7
Brendan Murphy Socialists 788 2.0 +2.0 1.6
Others 6.7
Informal 2,122 5.0 +1.1

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Richard Riordan Liberal 22,360 55.4 -5.2 52.0
Douglas Johnston Labor 17,999 44.6 +5.2 48.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east, and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (57.6%) and the west (65.9%), while Labor polled 61.4% in the east.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 6.8% in the west to 14.5% in the east.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 14.5 38.6 7,305 17.2
Central 10.7 57.6 6,819 16.0
West 6.8 65.9 6,355 14.9
Pre-poll 9.1 52.1 16,338 38.4
Other votes 12.3 50.4 5,775 13.6

Election results in Polwarth at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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56 COMMENTS

  1. My seat and my 67% Lib local booth. Problem for Labor here is their low vote in the country towns. However when Labor campaigned intensively in 2010 federal election they won 44% in the Colac booths. Since then demographics should help them slightly. There is potential to push up Labor’s vote in the towns but I imagine their campaigning resources will be elsewhere.

  2. The eastward shift in the boundaries sees this electorate change from a Western District one with Colac as its major population centre to a Surf Coast / Otways seat with Torquay-Jan Juc as its major population centre. The strong Labor and Green votes in these new areas should see Polwarth as a Labor target this year and a likely win in years to come.

  3. The ALP probably won`t gain Polwarth this year, particularly if its gains the Commonwealth Government. They may indeed still target it just in case and/or to divert Liberal resources.

    The next redistribution (due to take effect at the 2026 election) is likely to remove relatively conservative territory in the west and northwest of the seat and possibly make further gains from South Barwon, unless it redraws the map more substantially, making an ALP victory in Polwarth more achievable.

  4. Tom/Wanderwest, I am not sure if Polwarth is like a mini version of the old Corangamite federal district pre 2010, that included Colac and the Surf Coast (excluding the Geelong suburbs, which are in South Barwon).

    It just shows how quickly Geelong is growing – it now covers almost 2 federal districts and 4 state districts. Prior to 2010, it only covered 1.5 federal districts and 3.5 state districts (with Corangamite and South Barwon respectively overflowing into surrounding townships and rural areas).

  6. Yoh An, Good comparison. Yes it is similar to the Pre 2010 Corangamite although with a couple of noticeable differences which make it slightly more Liberal leaning. It does not include any of the Bellarine Peninsula and goes further west to include areas such as Camperdown/Cobden. Nevertheless this part of Victoria is changing. i can see a future scenario where the Labor may hold South Barwon but lose Carrum due to opposite demographic changes.

  7. Yes, agree Mick Quinlivan that Polwarth contains the more conservative leaning parts of the old Corangamite district, and is still considered safe for the Liberals.

  8. By 2026 the Surf Coast may have its own seat and Polwarth shifts west again. In this redistribution South West Coast was left unchanged despite being over quota. Warrnambool is growing quite strongly so SW Coast could be well over and all shifts west.

  9. I agree with Tom that Polwarth is at least another redistribution away from being truly competitive. Its current marginal status is an artefact of the 2018 landslide

  11. Deans Marsh has long been your typical Green voting rural community – organic farmers, tourist accommodation providers, artists, musicians, old hippies, tree-changers. Environmental activism in the Otways in the 90s saw many staying on in many of the Otways communities. Nearby township, Forrest, which has positioned itself as an eco-tourism/mountain biking destination, saw a 27% Green vote last federal election.

  12. At some point in the near future Polwarth will probably lose its newly gained territory in the east due the population growth in the surf coast, with Geelong potentially getting another seat. This means Polwarth will move west to gain from voters from the south west coast.

  13. The next redistribution (barring alteration by early election) will be in 2029. There would have to be quite a lot of growth in both Geelong and the Surf Coast to cause the creation of another seat then. Polwarth loosing further territory west and north west of the County of Polwarth (most notably Camperdown) and the Geelong seats shuffling around is a distinct possibility then.

  14. By 2029 Greater Geelong’s population is forecast to grow by 40,000, Surf Coast’s by 5,000.

  15. Wanderwest, if you are right about those growth figures then that might be enough to create a new Geelong region seat, or at least one that covers the outer fringe areas (it would see Geelong contract back inwards closer to the CBD and then the new seat will cover outer Geelong suburbs and parts of Golden Plains shire around Bannockburn).

    Unless the redistribution ends up creating a district that straddles Lara and Geelong, which will have more flow on effects around Werribee and Point Cook.

  16. Looking at the state district maps again, what I described earlier might not be the best fit. Especially if the growth is concentrated on the southern side around Waurn Ponds and Armstrong Creek.

    What might happen instead is Polwarth and South Barwon being split into three districts – Polwarth remains a western districts seat anchored around Colac and Lake Corangamite, South Barwon contracts closer to Geelong CBD (losing all remaining Surf Coast townships and the outer edges of Geelong council like Armstrong Creek) which then frees up space for a new district to cover the Surf Coast, the southern edge of Geelong council and possibly parts of Golden Plains shire to make up the numbers. In this scenario, Buninyong also moves closer to Melton and loses more of Golden Plains shire.

  17. Most of Greater Geelong’s growth over that period of time will be in Armstrong Creek (South Barwon) and to a lesser extent Lara West (Lara), with some growth still occurring in Ocean Grove, Leopold and Curlewis (Bellarine). Future growth in Geelong will then be beyond the ring road to the west (around Fyansford) and north west (around Batesford), with growth in Bannockburn bringing it and Geelong much closer together.

  18. That changes things a bit now you mentioned where the growth hot spots are Wanderwest – it might not be a simple case of just carving a new seat out of two existing seats, but a wholescale reorganisation of the current four Geelong region seats and also how they overlap with neighbouring districts like Buninyong and Polwarth.

  19. Former ALP State President, Hutch Hussein, preselected for Polwarth. Labor taking the challenge for this seat seriously, with its eastward shift taking in progressive Torquay-Jan Juc. Things getting interesting.

  20. Labor seems confident about this seat to put such a serious candidate here, will this seat be in play?

    For what it’s worth – the biggest swings against the incumbent Liberal and towards the teal Independent in Wannon were in this part of the seat.

  22. In regard to changing politics in smaller rural communities, I think it is more complex than a numbers game per se.

    When ‘new blood’ joins these small communities, it can mean new ideas and new community engagement. This can have a flow on effect on the ‘old blood’ of the communities as things might get stirred up a bit and the status quo gets challenged. This sort of thing is happening in small incremental ways in rural Victoria. It’s not then the raw numbers that create change but the influence of those people on existing populations. That’s what helped Alex Dyson in Wannon at the last federal election.

    Change happens differently than in urban areas.

    It’s fascinating. I’m disappointed I’m no longer in Polwarth cos I think there’s a real chance for a strong candidate and a good local campaign to take on the incumbent.

  23. I could definitely see a progressive independent shaking things up a bit in Polwarth, if they were backed by a strong community campaign. The coastal and Otways towns would no doubt get behind them, it would just be a matter of convincing those in Colac, Cobden and Camperdown. I don’t know of anyone that fits the description, but a progressive with strong links to these historically more conservative towns would make for an interesting candidate.

  24. The Greens have preselected Airey’s Inlet resident Hilary McAllister. McAllister was the federal candidate for the overlapping seat of Wannon and ran a solid campaign – maintaining and increasing the Green vote in many parts of the electorate, particularly the east. This was despite the impressive vote for progressive independent Dyson.

  25. I am puzzled.. figures lib 51^% alp 33
    Remaining ajp/ green/ soc 16 %
    Final figures 55/45 approx which means the libs got 4% of the 16% alp got 12%
    I don’t think there is an option to exhausted. The 3 parties green ajp and soc are all left of centre.. so there was a big leakage of 25% from the left parties. To the left. Have I missed something or is there a mistake in my sums?

  27. Surf Coast Shire LGA (which dominates the eastern part of the electorate) grew by almost 30% between 2016 and 2021. Corangamite and Colac Otway LGA hardly grew. Polwarth will most likely shrink geographically at the next redistribution and will lose the eastern part and/or parts of Corangoamite LGA will go to the South West Coast electorate.

    Alex Dyson lives in South West Coast and probably won’t run for Polwarth even though it’s more progressive here. Coming second in 2PP as a 33-34 year old independent candidate is just impressive. He could shake things up again in the future, no doubt.

  28. This seat is within 2 percent now.. also the preference flow was very favour to the libs in 2018. A slight change in preference flows could shift the seat now .also I would be reasonably sure the liberal candidate would not get an absolute majority

  29. There is massive population growth at the Eastern end of this seat, the federal results in this area don’t have much good news for the Libs. Not much room for error in this seat if the Liberal vote goes backward.

    This seat could potentially produce an unexpected result at the election thanks to the redistribution.

  30. 3 changes are occurring which all hurt the liberals. They should have got less than the 55% vote they got in 2019. Maybe 3% less. Based on their being no option to exhaust. I expect the alp vote to improve with a serious more targeted campaign. The second is there is the impact of the boundary changes maybe 3% labors way. Plus the impact of demographic changes this by itself would make this seat borderline.. if Labor polls close to 2019 in a similar pattern I expect thus seat to go down the wire. Depending on quality of candidates

  31. I think the seat could be more favorable to Labor given the population growth there and the sea-changing communities which may outnumber the traditional more rural areas and the federal result is also not looking good for the Libs. This is further not helped by Richard Riordan’s very right-wing political views evident from his irrationality

  32. @ Marh, i think you maybe correct while i not making any prediction as i am not sure if Labor is actually campaigning in the seat. The Seat is very different between the West and the East. The West of the seat has not changed must probably the same as it was during the Fraser years and is Western District Conservative while the the Otways/Surf Coast has attracted sea changes/alternative lifestyle communities. In the Bentleigh thread i talked about about how Bentleigh is the most uniform seat in terms of 2PP on booth results. I am thinking this seat and Monbulk may have the biggest variation.

  33. Mildura district is a crazy one for huge variation between booths. Independent polls almost 50% on primaries in the city of Mildura but in the southern end of the district is polling as low as 1% on primary votes.

  35. The electorate as a whole, especially the western part i.e. Corangamite LGA, has a high median age, compared to the state/national median. Since older people statistically are more accepting of lockdowns and are more likely to be vaccinated, I wonder if Dan Andrews is seen more positively here, compared to say, Metro Melbourne.

  37. Labor should be in with a good chance here, with an experienced campaigner and with the sitting member relatively unknown to the new parts of the electorate, which make up a large percentage of the population. However, Labor seem to be running a very low profile campaign, at this stage. There has been very little media about Hutch and aside from a few public appearances she has been pretty quiet on the campaign. That said the Liberals do seem worried here, with Riordan campaigning hard, with lots of announcements, promising everything to everyone and particularly focusing on the new parts of the electorate. On the ground, corflutes for both are few and far between. I am yet to be doorknocked by any party and the only party who has been letterboxing is the Greens. Still, we have a few weeks to go. I expect to see all three candidates step up their campaigns in the next week or so.

  39. Big Labor cash splash in last few weeks in Colac of grants to local clubs and schools & lots of media coverage. Labor have been pushing line to media that coastal population growth means Riordan’s real margin is overstated. Colac is becoming less Anglo as well. Riordian posters plentiful but on farms.

  42. Already the area round Geelong is 0.3 or so of a seat over quota. By 2029, there might be enough growth for a new seat in the Geelong area or Polwarth contracts right into the Surf Coast. Polwarth going the same way as Corangamite.

  43. Campaigning in Polwarth is a tale of two halves. Labor focussing on Colac region, Liberals on Torquay region. The two towns they each need to win in order to win the seat. In Torquay region more Labor corflutes than Liberal, although possibly even more Greens ones. I have received two Greens leaflets in my letterbox – one general one and one candidate one. As yet, no leaflets from either Labor or Liberal. Torquay Market – the big event that all candidates would have wanted to be at, has just been cancelled due to weather forecast this weekend.

  45. Going to make a bold call and predict an ALP GAIN here.

    Since the 2019 election there’s been some discussion about political realignments around here with outer suburban traditionally ALP voters trending conservative. rather than voting along class lines traditionally.

    The flip side of that is that affluent voters are also voting on values instead of economically. That applies not just in the blue ribbon suburbs but also to sea and tree changers. Some of that started with the 2018 Vic election, but it will be more pronounced now. COVID has also led to once urban professionals making lifestyle moves.

    Labor seem to be running a target seat campaign with announcements and a credible candidate, and The Greens are continuing decent momentum from a campaign where they could have easily been overlooked (as WanderWest points out).

    I don’t see Alex Dyson voters going back to Liberal so soon, although the gap between the 2CP and 2PP was larger than I expected for a candidate that seemed like a Green in all but name (not a small-l Liberal or “independent Nat” type).

    The western part which seems to be more classic country towns (Camperdown, Cobden) will be the main source of Liberal votes, but I don’t see them swinging any further right than before.

    Overall it’s not hard to see where the 2% swing will come from for Labor to pick up a seat even in an election where they might lose other seats. It would be quite an amazing result only 7 years after Labor didn’t even contest the byelection from the resignation of a Liberal front bencher.

  46. Am ALP victory in Polwarth would be quite a significant blow psychologically for the Liberals, given the ALP has never held it before and it would have a noticeable impact on colour by winning party maps of Victoria, particularly given that the ALP are unlikely to win Polwarth without winning Ripon with its similarly large impact on colour by winning party maps.

  47. One of those rare seats with an East/West divide. Reminds me of Macquarie federally.

    Labor will probably pick this up but you can’t rule out the coalition having a better night than expected and holding all their seats perhaps except for a couple and picking up seats.

  49. There was an apparent counting or data error here that made it look like Labor got a massive swing on postals and had won the seat.

    It’s now been corrected (apparently) and the Liberals will now win.

  50. The swing map here is interesting. Overall very small swing on election day results (+0.4 Lib) but the booths starting from Torquay running along the coast down to Cape Otway swing towards Labor, while the inland regions have the opposite trend of a swing towards Liberals. Pretty much what would be expected from demographic change and how these different groups swung in the election overall.

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