ALP 0.6%
Incumbent MP
John Kennedy, since 2018.
Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Hawthorn covers central parts of the Boroondara local government area, and specifically the suburbs of Hartwell and Hawthorn and parts of the suburbs of Burwood, Camberwell, Canterbury and Surrey Hills.
Redistribution
Hawthorn shifted to the east, taking in part of Surrey Hills from Burwood and Box Hill, and losing the remainder of Glen Iris to Ashwood. These changes slightly increased the Labor margin from 0.4% to 0.6%.
History
Hawthorn has existed as an electoral district continuously since 1889. In that time, it has been dominated by conservative MPs, and had only been won by the ALP at one election prior to the Labor win in 2018.
The seat was won in 1902 by George Swinburne. He ended up serving as a member of the Commonwealth Liberal Party before his retirement in 1913.
He was succeeded by William Murray McPherson. McPherson served as Treasurer in the Nationalist state government from 1917 to 1923, and as Premier from 1928 to 1929. McPherson resigned from Parliament in 1930.
He was succeeded by Nationalist candidate John Gray at the 1930 by-election. Gray served as Member for Hawthorn until his death in 1939.
His seat was won at the 1939 by-election by the United Australia Party’s Leslie Tyack. He lost the seat at the 1940 state election to independent candidate Leslie Hollins, who had links to the Social Credit movement.
Hollins held Hawthorn for two terms, losing in 1945 to the Liberal Party’s Frederick Edmunds. He also held the seat for two terms, until in 1950 the Liberal Party replaced him with his predecessor Leslie Tyack.
Tyack was defeated in 1952 by the ALP’s Charles Murphy, the only ALP member to ever win Hawthorn. He left the ALP in the split of 1955, and lost his seat at that year’s election to the Liberal Party’s James Manson.
After one term, Manson moved to the new seat of Ringwood in 1958, and was replaced in Hawthorn by Peter Garrisson. He was re-elected in 1961, but in 1963 he resigned from the Liberal Party, and lost his seat as an independent in 1964.
Walter Jona was elected as Liberal Member for Hawthorn in 1964. He served as a minister in the Liberal government from 1976 to 1982, and retired in 1985.
Hawthorn was won in 1985 by the Liberal Party’s Phillip Gude, who had previously held the seat of Geelong East for one term from 1976 to his defeat in 1979. He served as a minister in the Kennett government from 1992 until his retirement in 1999.
Since 1999, Hawthorn has been held by Ted Baillieu. Baillieu won re-election in 2002, 2006 and 2010.
Ted Baillieu was elected Liberal leader shortly before the 2006 election, and led the Coalition to defeat in 2006 and victory in 2010.
Baillieu served as Premier from 2010 until March 2013, when he resigned as Premier and Liberal leader under pressure from his party’s MPs. He retired at the 2014 election, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate John Pesutto.
Pesutto held Hawthorn for one term, losing the seat to Labor’s John Kennedy with a big swing in 2018.
- Faith Fuhrer (Animal Justice)
- John Kennedy (Labor)
- Ken Triantafillis (Family First)
- Richard Peppard (Liberal Democrats)
- Melissa Lowe (Independent)
- Nick Savage (Greens)
- John Pesutto (Liberal)
- Stratton Bell (Democratic Labour)
Assessment
Hawthorn has traditionally been considered a safe Liberal seat, but a cumulative swing of 17.1% to Labor since Ted Baillieu’s retirement in 2014 saw them grab the seat. It wouldn’t take much of that vote swinging back to restore the Liberal hold here, but if the Liberal Party doesn’t receive much of a bounce back Labor could hold the seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 17,231 | 43.9 | -10.6 | 43.9 |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 12,646 | 32.2 | +8.0 | 32.9 |
| Nicholas Bieber | Greens | 7,167 | 18.3 | -3.1 | 17.7 |
| Sophie Paterson | Sustainable Australia | 960 | 2.4 | +2.5 | 2.4 |
| Catherine Wright | Animal Justice | 885 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Richard Grummet | Independent | 367 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.8 |
| Informal | 1,462 | 3.6 | -0.2 |
2018 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| John Kennedy | Labor | 19,793 | 50.4 | +9.0 | 50.6 |
| John Pesutto | Liberal | 19,463 | 49.6 | -9.0 | 49.4 |
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The Labor Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, with just over 52% in the centre and east and 57% in the west. The Liberal Party narrowly won the pre-poll vote and won the remaining vote more convincingly.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.3% in the east to 21.5% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 17.0 | 52.1 | 9,807 | 22.7 |
| East | 12.3 | 52.2 | 6,135 | 14.2 |
| West | 21.5 | 56.9 | 5,796 | 13.4 |
| Pre-poll | 18.1 | 46.5 | 13,503 | 31.2 |
| Other votes | 19.3 | 49.6 | 8,018 | 18.5 |
Election results in Hawthorn at the 2018 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Is he even an MP yet? Do candidates become MPs when they are declared by the VEC or when they are sworn in in Parliament?
Adam the latter . Was he able to
Vote for himself? The libs made
Probably a best choice they could give. JOHN is probably slightly left of the liberal party
Centre he will is not deposed go into the election with a highly
Marginal seat.. if he hopes to retain his seat he needs to work hard and spent lots of his
Time improving his position
I wonder which seat John Pesutto will contest in 2026.
Why would he move seats? He isn’t. Ted Baillieu didn’t move seats now did he. Andrews didn’t either even though he was marginal in 2014.
He won’t move to Malvern and he ruled it out. Even if O’Brien retires he ruled out moving there
Certainly not Brunswick or Prahran.
Chris Minns, the NSW Opposition Leader, has an even lower margin than Pesutto’s and yet he’s not changing seats.
The teals aren’t likely going to be a factor in 2026 so Pesutto shouldn’t have any trouble winning here again. Labor and the Greens aren’t going to spend the resources to win here given they have other seats to worry about.
I am surprised that the Teals in both Kew and Hawthorn did not in the end make the 2PP even with Labor PV being very low in the low 20s. Clearly in both seats both some AJP and Green voters shifted their primary to the Teal but it seems the remaining with Green and AJP primary voters many did not follow HTV to preference Teal second. What was the breakdown of Green and AJP preferences when they exhausted?
The Liberals can easily create a powerhouse again in Victoria, from 1949-1971 Australia only had Lib/Country Victorian prime ministers, and some of the very close elections hinged on key Victorian seats like in 1961 and 1969.
If Josh Frydenburg can win back Kooyong and become leader after 2025, he could become PM in 2028 and boost the Victorian Liberal brand at the same time. Josh and John are key to reviving the party and I think they can do it.
The Liberals powerhouse was Victoria back then. Even after Gorton, Sneeden, Fraser and Peacock were all hailed from Victoria. NSW dominated from 1995-2022 when the party ONLY had leaders from NSW. While QLD could easily start dominating, the Liberals already win in QLD with leaders from NSW, so they should elect leaders from Victoria to potentially boost their prospects.
I’ll also remind people that from 1955-1982 the Libs were in power in Victoria, combined with Menzies,Holt and Fraser, the Victorian Liberals were an untouchable force that ruled Australia. Could it happen again??
It could daniel but long term I see Victoria as a more Labor leaning state. Some commentators mentioned it could be like California, i see Victoria somewhat like Virginia, which was once a republican leaning state that has trended democratic today due to the growth of urban areas and rise of younger, tertiary educated voters.
More like John Brogden in nsw he was the leader but no one followed him
I agree with Yoh An,
Victoria has been trending Labor at a state & Federal election. John is going to have a hard time holding onto his own seat let alone winning, the demographics in this seat are rapidly changing & John has called it the second Richmond. As for NSW I would say that the LNP are the favourites to improve as can be seen in recent elections at a state & federal level.
I think the issue with John Brogden was different to this situation with the Victorian Liberals.
For a start Bob Carr was in his 2nd term as premier and was going for a 3rd term. But also Howard was prime minister and unpopular with many voters (Howard would often trail polls during most of his terms only to bounce back during the campaign like in 2001 and 2004) I think 2003 was the only year the coalition wad consistently ahead nationally but that was because of Simon Crean.
People were unwilling to vote for a NSW coalition government with them in power federally, more importantly, vote out an incumbent Labor government with Howard in power. Pesutto likely can use a 2nd term Labor government to his advantage in 2026, something Brogden could not do in 2003.
In a hypothetical world, a prime minister Kim Beazley could have meant a premier John Brogden, but we will never know for sure.
Brogden also had many issues of his own such as a suicide attempt back in 2005 which lead to his resignation, that didn’t help the state liberal party at all.
The Victorian liberals issue is both the policies, AND the leaders. Unlike NSW and even they were in opposition for 16 years. Historically the Liberals were in government more than not in Victoria unlike in. NSW which was more Labor dominated, so the Victorian liberals need a to explain how they went from “natural governance” to “natural opposition”
Labor and the teals all got similar primary votes in Hawthorn, Kew and Mornington and they were in the low 20s. It’s a coincidence. Only Mornington turned into a LIB vs IND contest. I’m surprised that Hawthorn/Kew, the two most likely teal wins, have flipped to LIB vs ALP contests following distributions of preferences.
Speaking of Josh Frydenberg, if he runs again in Kooyong, and Dutton flounders in 2025, then ironically he could win. It’s not because the Liberals won Hawthorn and Kew in 2022, but because he may be framed as the great hope and the saviour who could rescue the Liberal Party. It could also be he gets the Pesutto treatment – people wanted the Liberal Party to lose but feel sorry for his own loss.
This is a area where they should weigh not count the liberal vote but a combination of demographic change and anti Labor forces being lost means they don’t. John P only got a 1% swing. The Albanese govt is likely to be in probably 2 terms and the sitting teal mp is likely to win. I doubt Josh will even be the liberal candidate here next election. Maybe they should find him a safe liberal seat elsewhere….wait don’t think there are any!
The preferences counts in Hawthorn and Kew show up a few issues:
– except for the 30% of “teal” preferences that went to the Liberal- there is now a 3 way fight between Teals, ALP and Greens for the same vote.
– at federal level, the reliance of the Teals on Climate 200 money is shown in sharp relief. Between Clive Palmer and Climate 200 – it shows big money can win elections – though Clive’s returns are not as good.
– the Teals are the latest manifestation of a disaffected ‘liberal’ soft ‘Liberal’ voter group – diaffected by a particular issue or repelled by a personality -who peeled off to the left of the Libs but could not bring themselves to vote Labor – Liberal Reform, Australia Party, Democrats. And in each case there has not been enough for long term sustainibility.
Don’t forget Liberals 4 Forests in the 2000s.
John Pesutto’s inability to remove Moira Deeming has damaged his leadership and authority also his hold on this electorate. I am becoming less confident with each passing day that he’ll make it to the 2026 election as opposition leader he definitely put the right of the party off side.
Agree Bob, I feel though the Teals are threat to him in this electorate not Labor. Labor would be happy to run dead IMV and focus on winning Polwarth/Croydon from the Libs instead. A lot of the people in the Victorian Liberals are still more interested in winning the Culture Wars than winning government. I believe Moira Deeming will be a loose cannon and this is not the last we have heard from her and even if Brad Battin wins the leadership he may be forced to expel her like Bernie Finn was. I think one other reason that the Libs are less inclined to expel her is that she represents the Western Suburbs where some in the right faction believe they should focus on. The Libs won 2 upper hourse seats in Western Metro which they only usually win during elections like 2010 if they expel her they are back to 1.
It appears he won’t be making it to 2026 as Opposition Leader but that doesn’t necessitate being harmed in his standing with the electorate. He may receive a personal vote for attempting to turn the party around before they knifed him, similarly to Turnbull in 2010 and 2013 where his seat turned from marginal to very safe.
The rapid change of the demographics with University students moving in & more renters is a major problem for John to hold here as it’s looking more like Prahran or Richmond electorates. It doesn’t help him with his party tying itself in knots about this Moria Deeming event, I suspect that about a year out from the election Brad will replace John.
Why do people keep predicting Battin will take over? He can’t win in Victoria. Labor will get the 70 seats some user on this site predicted in 2026 if they switch leaders.
Battin is another Matthew Guy and will make no change to the party. The party will be further hijacked by the religious right under him and Sky News wins.
Unless Daniel Andrews is still premier in 2026, Dumping Pessutto (Who in normal circumstances would give Labor a run for their money) will be absolutely smashed and blown out of the water in TPP terms in 2026, should it be a Battin vs New Labor Leader.
Daniel Andrews was the only reason Labor didn’t win a landslide in 2022. (my criteria of a landslide is 58-42+ in the TPP and at least 60 lower house seats)
How does the Liberal party expect to be in government again if it keeps picking duds to lead them? (If they choose Battin)
@ Bob
Whilst i agree there has been significant denisfication around the Glenferrie station and Camberwell Junction it does not explain everything and is not neccessarily a leftward shift. I agree there more renters than in the past. However, i would caution the significance of the student vote a large part of the student residents in Hawthorn would be international students who cannot vote and in Australia we dont really have college towns or really a tradition of students moving out of home to attend University and living on campus unlike the US/UK, most domestic students still live at home unless they are from a rural area with no university. I do agree there are a lot of Young Professionals who are yet to settle down in life who live in the parts of the seat close to the transport hubs. However, this is still a demographic that can get behind a Teal instead of Labor. At the recent state election despite a sitting Labor member in the more progressive parts of the seat around Glenferrie and Camberwell Junction the Teal outpolled the Labor party and the Libs still came first on primaries. This is the reason Labor was not really interested to try and retain the seat and were hoping the Teal would win and entrench themselves. I now move to Berwick, i actually think Labor has a better chance to win this seat than Hawthorn. This is a middle class area so people dont really have to hold their noses to vote Labor like they do in Hawthorn. Also it is really only the Northern part of of the electorate that is strong for the Libs, the southern party is more Labor friendly and that part of the seat around Clyde North is rapidly growing unlike the northern part and is very ethnically diverse. I actually think there is a good chance that the Moira Deeming controversy could backfire if it can be portrayed by Labor through a racial prism (with the neo-nazis) rather than LGBT one. There is a growing black African community in Berwick as well. At the last state election Labor ran dead in Berwick to sandbag all the neighboring seats if they campaigned in Berwick i think it would have been a tight result.
Daniel
> Why do people keep predicting Battin will take over? He can’t win in Victoria. Labor will get the 70 seats some user on this site predicted in 2026 if they switch leaders.
Because the Victorian Liberal party have form in this regard, the same thing happened to Michael O’Brien (little known opposition leader from 2018 to 2021). It’s the same problem as with Turnbull, neither side wants to give up their values and ultimately the conservatives have the numbers (yes, I’m aware that Pesutto won the ballot for the leadership. By one vote, which will be easily lost when polls reflect as they continue to reflect that the Victorian Liberal party’s image is not as easy as slapping a so-called moderate on the front). Not to mention that Sky recently declared total war against Pesutto. The party has not changed because it is yet to acknowledge that the electorate, especially in Victoria, is not buying what they are selling. However, whoever leads the Liberals will be sailing with the wind in 2026, given the Labor government will be 12 years old, Dutton will almost certainly have been replaced and Albanese could be in minority/knifed.
Agree Douglas, also the Liberals may be able to boost their numbers in some outer suburban districts (mostly in Northern suburbs) where they had big swings last election. This could offset some of their declining support in the more affluent inner and middle ring suburbs.
There is no compelling reason for Victorians to vote for Pesutto to be the premier. He is indistinguishable from Dan Andrews on the major issues and has done nothing but capitulate to the inner city left media.
Yoh An
I do not think that those seats are under any real threat. The lowest is Yan Yean sitting at around 4%, and most of these seats are sitting at a low water mark already. If an election was held in 2021, some of them would’ve been lost. But Lockdowns and perhaps even Andrews will be distant memories come 2026, and I should expect these seats to return to form, or at least to not get much worse. Still, four years is a long time.
Everyone is falsely assuming that the federal Labor government will only last 6 years. And people falsely assume the government will be very unpopular in it’s second term, Let me explain why this is likely to be totally wrong.
The coalition managed to get 3 terms despite it’s chaos and unpopularity, Labor isn’t making the same mistakes as it did from 2007-2013 by knifing prime ministers because the rules have changed.
Labor isn’t introducing a carbon tax, and the nature of politics has changed since the 43rd parliament. The electorate is also more progressive than it was 10 years ago.
Who says the Liberal party will change within 6 years? That is highly unlikely because they will likely go with someone like Andrew Hastie who is as conservative as Dutton and hawkish on China, anyone who believes this is an election-vote winner needs to speak to the asian community because they will tell you they hate the coalitions hostile stance to China.
And a swing back to the Liberals in Victoria when they have problems that will take a generation to fix, really? Im sorry but people need to stop making assumptions here about “Labor will become very unpopular” and that people will vote a “sky news backed conservative over them”
There is no compelling reason. Try again.
I agree with Douglas i feel the only winnable seat for the Libs is Yan Yean. It is important to note Yan Yean does not have any working class or deprived areas and does have some very affluent areas in its eastern Fringe in Nilumbik Shire (Plenty/Yarrambat), this makes it very different from neighboring seats such as Thomastown. It is important to note than Yan Yean was already notionally Liberal going into the 2014 result. The Yan Yean 2018 result was inflated for two reasons the Liberal candidate was dis-endorsed for making anti-Muslim remarks and the Labor party delivered Mernda rail. It was also notionally Liberal going into the 2002 election when Matt Guy was running as the Liberal candidate. In 2022, long serving MP Danielle Green retired all of which explain the big swing, in fact Yan Yean simply returned to a 2014 result (actually slightly better for Labor than 2014).
Daniel T and Entrepreneur are both right, the Vic Libs are for all intents and purposes, dead. They’ve allowed the Vic ALP to completely take over the centre and with that, a lot of different voter types. If they go further to the right, then that pisses off more urban people. If they are Labor Lite, then people will vote for the ALP anyway. There’s no way back to power for them unless the ALP implodes, a very unlikely scenario. The ALP will have Spring Street indefinitely unless a big Greens challenge them. Yes, Jacinta Allan will easily defeat John Pesutto in 2026. Everyone with a basic understanding of Victorian politics can see that from a mile away.
I wonder what will happen to the Liberal vote in the future, given much of the children of old money will move on away from the Libs as they are likely going to support climate action?
The Liberal Party of Australia is not like the Republican Party of the US, as the LNP is more politically diverse in contrast with the GOP which has the hard right-wing “Freedom Caucus” in full control. In theory, LNP is equal to Biden and Trump being in the same party
In 2022, the Liberals gained swings in Malvern and Caulfield, sandbagged Kew and regained Hawthorn. This is despite teal challengers and shifting demographics (renters, social progressives, young uni-educated professionals etc.). John Pesutto was a first term MP in 2018 but I’m sure he can build up his own personal vote in Hawthorn by 2026. John Pesutto may be good at helping the Liberals retain their traditional Liberal heartland seats, but the issue is that there are more marginal Labor and marginal Liberal seats up for grabs in the outer suburbs and eastern suburbs.
I can see why Brad Battin is touted as a future Liberal leader. He’s not from the inner-city and so there’s a perception that he could tap into outer suburbs and regional electorates. He’s also more conservative and the party room may gamble on him if Pesutto doesn’t make inroads. The party room is quite split on issues (LGBT issues, climate change etc.) and if this civil war continues, it will hand Labor another victory easily.
@ Marh I would say they would vote Teal instead of Labor as Rob Ballieu already has. the issue with being anticlimate action is there is literally no other seats that the Libs can win off Labor the only seat that it could have worked is Morwell but Labor has not needed that seat to win majority government and that seat is held by Nats instead of Libs
Brattin is more conservative than Pesutto but Indo feel Brattin is less conservative than Guy and O’Brien given his surprising views on justice reforms
I have to wonder what would be the results of Hawthron it was in the USA (using American political standards), I got a gut feeling that small-liberals in Australia tend to vote conservative in Australia but in America, they would vote progressive as they seem more like a Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Democrat. Massachusetts is an example of this as they vote Democrat at the federal level but swings on the state level (They once had Charlie Baker, a popular moderate anti-Trump Republican governor but once he retired and got replaced with Geoff Diehl, a pro-Trump Conservative, Massachusetts switched to Democrat at the state level)
Matthew Guy has shifted a bit more to the centre ever since he had his former ally Tim Smith sacked. He recently criticised the hard right’s undermining of Pesutto’s leadership. At this stage, the Libs’ priorities for 2026 should be consolidating their vote in the teal seats and winning back the eastern suburb seats and eating into the margins in the key growth area and Frankston line seats for the 2030 election rather than chasing some mythical Trump supporter demographic that barely exists in Victoria.
i definitely think places in inner-east melbourne, the eastern suburbs of sydney and sydney’s northern beaches would vote democrat. politics in america seems to be largely (though of course not entirely) driven by social issues, hence why democrats can reliably garner support from the upper-middle class in metro and suburban areas, unlike the major left-wing party over here (labor) which still mainly represents middle-suburbia and outer-metropolitan areas. even places like beverly hills in los angeles and some of the wealthiest neighbourhoods in manhattan vote reliably democrat (albeit with a smaller margin than neighbouring suburbs). voting may differ at a gubernatorial/mayoral level however the hard right social stances of federal republicans is so out of whack with socially progressive and wealthy urban suburbs that even their fiscal conservatism is no longer appealing to these voters.
I believe the Democratic Party is a hybrid of Liberal and Labor in Australian political standards conversely the Liberal Party is a hybrid of Democratic and Republican in American political standards
Matt Guy’s greatest gift to the Liberal party was to force Tim Smith out of parliament that paved the way for Jess Wilson the type of politician that the Liberal party desperately needs, just like Latham’s greatest gift to the Labor party was to loose so badly in 2004 that Howard won the Senate and was able to pass workchoices and the rest is history. I agree that Matt Guy moved towards the centre including support for Treaty, Legislated Climate targets, proposed a dedicated LGBT legal service and also funding increase for Joy FM very different to the 2018 campaign. I suspect that even if Brad Battin becomes leader he will realise there is no path to victory with a trump style campaign and just to do a Matt Guy 2022 all over again. Just like Matt Guy expelled Bernie Finn it maybe the case that in the end it will be Brad Battin will expel Moira Deeming as she will probably do another controversial act and it will be Deja Vu all again and Sky news will then start to undermine Brad Battin just like they did with Matthew Guy in 2022 as he started to moderate.
I think that Pesutto should go for how badly he stuffed this up. His first question should have been ‘Who let the Neo Nazi’s through?’ If it was the ‘Let Women Speak’ group, fine, get rid of Deeming, but if it wasn’t then he has an issue which he can use to cause unease about the Government (“Question to the Police Minister, Who gave permission for the Neo Nazi group to stand on the stairs of Parliament House?”). Would also have played right into a couple of the recent news stories about Andrews, but he has somehow turned this into a crisis for the Libs. He didn’t even have to take a side in the ‘Women vs Trans’ debate. Maybe the worst piece of ‘politics’ I have ever seen.
“I agree that Matt Guy moved towards the centre including support for Treaty, Legislated Climate targets, proposed a dedicated LGBT legal service and also funding increase for Joy FM”
How many Labor or Greens voters saw that and decided ‘oh gee, I guess I’ll vote Liberal now’?
None.
Just copying your opponents is not going to get you elected. You have to offer a bold contrast to convince people to change government.
@ Entrepreneur
i think you are partly right. Although i would say his moderation did mean the Liberals recovered in its heartland and got swings to it in Brighton, Sandringham, Nepean, Caulfield, Malvern and held off against the Teals in Kew and Hawthorn its is a very different situation from what happened at the Federal election just 6 months earlier. Before a party can go hunting it needs to defend its own territory first. However, a large section of the community (maybe even a majority) often vote based economic management, competence and service delivery rather than social issues such as SSM, which toilet people should use etc or ideological purity. It is these voters that are up for grabs.
On your point “Just copying your opponents is not going to get you elected. You have to offer a bold contrast to convince people to change government.”
Well Kevin Rudd in 2007 was accused on “me tooism” trying to say he agreed with most of Howard except for workchoices and climate change. He said he supported school choice for example, this convinced Howard Battlers and Middle Australia to swing behind him and that he was not too radical. Chris Minns was accused of being small target but he was able to convince the people of Camden, Penrith etc to rally behind him something Shorten could not do when he offered a bold contrast in 2019. When Hewson offered a bold contrast in 1993 it did not exactly help him did it?
Can you think of a part of Victoria that voted Labor because the Libs were not right wing enough? The only area where anti-climate action could work was Morwell (only white working class seat in Victoria) and the Coalition won it notionally from Labor despite promising a legislated climate target
Nimalan, also Anthony Albanese ran a low-profile campaign that didn’t emphasise major change and that seemed to work for Labor.
I would argue that to win power from opposition the major parties do need to offer some contrast, but not too much to the extent that they alienate centrist/swing voters who would prefer to continue backing the incumbent government.
@entrepreneur why would people currently voting left of centre change their votes to the liberals if they were to adopt policies that were even further to the right?
Agree Louis, for those who normally vote for the Greens they would be unlikely to change their vote no matter what due to their strong held beliefs. What matters most is those in the centre, who will be swayed by whichever major party can offer them the most in an economic sense.
Agree Yoh An, it is the swing/centrist voters that need to be won for a party to win government. These voters are usually middle class rather than affluent or working class. The middle class can be pulled in both directions. Daniel Andrews is in power not because he is popular among the elite rather due to staunch support in Middle Australia such as the sandbelt and the middle class east such as Ringwood, Box Hill, Ashwood, Bayswater etc. Andrews won these voters not because he has been progressive on matters such as Euthanasia rather it was the service delivery like Level crossing removals, metro tunnel, Mernda rail and rail duplications new hospitals, schools etc.
Tony Barry actually said explained that the strategy for parties is to pick their battles wisely and not fight on all fronts also how this approach worked for Kevin Rudd. Link below. Albanese also as you said tried to focus only on key points of difference.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/why-did-the-liberal-party-perform-so-poorly-in-aston-/102178886
With finally expelling Moira Deeming and demoting Renee Heath Pseutto should receive a personal vote boost in 2026, even if he is ousted as opposition leader. Thoughts?
Agree, Addy the vote to expel Moira Deeming was quite strong 19-11. I doubt even if Brad Battin becomes leader he would want to bring Moira Deeming back it is really only Richard Riordan or Ryan Smith if they become leaders sometime in the future would want to bring her back. However, Richard Riordan is actually more vulnerable in Polwarth than Pesutto is in Hawthorn as Polwarth includes some very left-wing areas such as Bellbrae, Airneys Inlet where Riordan would be hated this different from the area around Swinburne University which is more Tealish than left-wing.
So John Pesutto’s claim to the leadership is being a nice loser on ABC TV in 2018, declaring his party has a woman problem, then spending the last 2 months expelling a Maori woman and demoting another woman.
The Liberals will continue to deteriorate as a campaign force since there’s no compelling reason for anybody to vote for them, run for them, or volunteer for them. You can’t win government if you spend your whole time attacking your own supporters.
@entrepreneurial agreed while i hate what the libs are doing to themselves statewide il still support my local member