Western Metropolitan – Victoria 2018

Incumbent MLCs

  • Rachel Carling-Jenkins (Conservatives), since 20141
  • Khalil Eideh (Labor), since 2006
  • Bernie Finn (Liberal), since 2006
  • Cesar Melhem (Labor), since 2013
  • Huong Truong (Greens), since 20182

1Rachel Carling-Jenkins changed party affiliation on 26 June 2017, from the Democratic Labour Party to the Australian Conservatives.
2Huong Truong replaced Colleen Hartland on 21 February 2018 following Colleen Hartland’s resignation.

Geography

ElectorateMarginElectorateMarginElectorateMargin
Altona ALP 12.6% Niddrie ALP 7.7% Tarneit ALP 14.6%
Essendon ALP 8.7% St Albans ALP 17.5% Werribee ALP 15.7%
Footscray ALP 14.5% Sunbury ALP 4.3% Williamstown ALP 16.5%
Kororoit ALP 20.0% Sydenham ALP 16.3%

The Western Metropolitan region covers the western suburbs from Sunbury in the north to Werribee in the south, and as far east as Williamstown and Essendon.

All eleven seats in the region are held by the ALP. None of these seats are particular marginal, with margins ranging from 4.3% in Sunbury to 20% in Kororoit.

History
Western Metropolitan region was created in 2006, when proportional representation was introduced.

At the first election, the ALP won three seats, and the Liberal Party and the Greens each won one seat.

In 2010, Labor lost their third seat to the Liberal Party.

That second Liberal seat fell in 2014 to DLP candidate Rachel Carling-Jenkins, now a member of the Australian Conservatives.

2014 result

PartyVotes%SwingQuota
Labor 191,60744.0-2.22.6390
Liberal 102,68123.6-6.91.4142
Greens 44,99110.3-1.60.6197
Liberal Democrats24,0805.5+5.50.3317
Sex Party11,7742.7-1.90.1622
Democratic Labour Party11,1832.6-0.50.1540
Palmer United Party9,6292.2+2.20.1326
Voice for the West7,7571.8+1.80.1068
Animal Justice6,6201.5+1.50.0912
Family First6,3551.5-2.20.0875
Australian Christians5,9731.4+1.40.0823
Shooters and Fishers5,4061.2+1.20.0745
Cyclists Party3,3460.8+0.80.0461
Others4,2311.0
Informal19,1974.2

Preference flows
On primary votes, Labor won two seats, and the Liberal Party won one.

We can fast forward to the last ten candidates running for the last two seats:

  • Colleen Hartland (GRN) – 0.6585 quotas
  • Stanley Chiang (ALP) – 0.6307
  • Andrew Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4148
  • Zeev Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3334
  • Rachel Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3311
  • Vicki Nash (SXP) – 0.1677
  • Trevor Dance (PUP) – 0.1359
  • Berhan Ahmed (VFW) – 0.1266
  • Roy Taylor (AJP) – 0.0954
  • Jaxon Calder (FF) – 0.0947

Family First preferences flowed to Voice for the West, pushing Ahmed ahead of the Sex Party and Palmer United:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.6590
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6311
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4166
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3338
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3323
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2108
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.1681
  • Dance (PUP) – 0.1365
  • Taylor (AJP) – 0.0961

Animal Justice preferences gave a boost to the Sex Party:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.6625
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6319
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4171
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3340
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3329
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2537
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2115
  • Dance (PUP) – 0.1371

Palmer United preferences flowed to the Greens:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.7894
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6329
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4181
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3346
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.3335
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2550
  • Ahmed (VFW) – 0.2127

Voice for the West preferences flowed to the Democratic Labour Party, pushing Carling-Jenkins ahead of the LDP and Liberal Party:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 0.7933
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6343
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.5299
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4189
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3359
  • Nash (SXP) – 0.2571

Sex Party preferences pushed the Greens’ Colleen Hartland over quota as the fourth elected candidate. This left Hartland with a 0.03 surplus, which mostly flowed to Labor:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6585
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.5317
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4245
  • Vinokurov (LDP) – 0.3419

LDP preferences favoured the DLP, pushing Carling-Jenkins ahead of Chiang:

  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 0.8561
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6641
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.4267

Liberal preferences elected Carling-Jenkins, leaving Labor out in the cold:

  • Carling-Jenkins (DLP) – 1.2508
  • Hartland (GRN) – 1.0000
  • Chiang (ALP) – 0.6670
  • Elsbury (LIB) – 0.0040

Candidates

  • A – Catherine Cumming (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • B – Terri Beech (Animal Justice)
  • C – Hayley Webb (Hudson for Northern Victoria)
  • D – Francine Cohen (Australian Liberty Alliance)
  • E – Jorge Jorquera (Socialists)
  • F – Stuart O’Neill (Aussie Battler)
  • G – Liberal
    1. Bernie Finn
    2. Dinesh Gourisetty
    3. Moira Deeming
  • H – Benito Caruso (Country Party)
  • I – Adam Karlovsky (Liberal Democrats)
  • J – Chris Botha (Reason)
  • K – Allan Doensen (Sustainable Australia)
  • L – Wayne Rigg (Shooters, Fishers & Farmers)
  • M – Briony Jenkinson (Health Australia)
  • N – Joan Beckwith (Voluntary Euthanasia)
  • O – Daniel Lowinger (Transport Matters)
  • P – Walter Villagonzalo (Democratic Labour)
  • Q – Huong Truong (Greens)
  • R – Labor
    1. Cesar Melhem
    2. Ingrid Stitt
    3. Kaushaliya Vaghela
  • Ungrouped
    • Kathy Majdlik
    • Diana Grima

Assessment
The Greens have held a seat in this region since 2006, but it’s never been comfortable, and it will be a challenge to hold on. It will also be a challenge for Carling-Jenkins. Her new party doesn’t have much of a profile and didn’t perform well in the recent South Australian state election. She will depend on a strong flow of preferences which can be unreliable.

Labor would be hoping to win a third seat, but the Liberal Party would also be looking at a second seat.

Regional breakdown
Labor topped the primary vote in the Western Metropolitan region. Labor also topped the vote in all eleven districts within the region.

Labor did best in Kororoit and in surrounding seats, and did worst in the seats closest to the Melbourne city centre.

The Liberal Party did best in the northernmost seats, and did worst in the middle spine of the region.

The Greens vote was highest closest to the Melbourne city centre.

Results of the 2014 Victorian upper house election in the Western Metropolitan region


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19 COMMENTS

  1. Rachel Carling-Jenkins is running as an independent in the lower house seat of Werribee. So basically she’s retiring from parliament.

    I think the Greens are doing a fair bit in Footscray and Williamstown, will be interesting to see if their upper house vote benefits. If it does it would pretty much assure Huong Truong gets elected before a 3rd Labor candidate does.

  2. I’d expect a result of 3 Labor, 1 Lib and 1 Green.
    That being said it’s hard to know how the 5th seat will fall due to preference flows.
    Whilst on paper the Greens position looks weak it’s hard to see them losing a seat to Labor and the Libs primary vote is unlikely rise enough for the second Lib to usurp the first Greens candidate, especially when the Greens are starting to take a concerted effort in Footscray and Williamstown, whilst maintaining a strong vote Essendon.

  3. The Green vote should be just high enough in Footscray, Williamstown and Essendon to help them retain their seat. The final seat will be a contest between a 3rd and a 2nd Liberal

  4. Vote for Sustainable Australia as they have a plan for:
    – Secure jobs via a more diverse economy
    – Affordable housing for first home buyers and renters
    – Better planning to stop over-development
    – A sustainable environment and population

  5. Today’s Australian has a prediction from Antony Green that Aussie Battler Party Candidate Stuart O’Neill is likely to pick up a seat in Western Metropolitan. Aussie Battler are a middle of road party that are similar in outlook to DLP (without the RC influence) or Katter/ Country Party without the heavy Rural emphasis. Similar in many ways to UK Cooperative party. If

  6. Catherine Cumming has left the Hinch Justice Party even before she was sworn in claiming she should be leader of the 3 Upper House Hinch MP’s as discussed in the Herald Sun today (19 Dec 18). I assume there was a vote for leader and she did not win, that’s democracy former Councillor Cumming something they dont have much of in the western suburbs of inner Melbourne.

    Self serving candidates who use a popular banner like Hinch or One Nation and the rest, then leave after being elected to parliament are unworthy and untrustworthy as they are not team players. Anyhow the pathetic Catherine Cumming has 8 years to contemplate her naval as an MLC, assuming she does not leave mid term for, the familiar feeble cop out “family reasons”.

  7. Do you agree she loses next time round since she left the party? Baring she doesn’t join another party like Liberal/Labor/Greens

  8. @Adrian

    She only has 4 years, we elect our whole upper house each time in Victoria.

    Plenty of people were tipping any and all of the Hinch members to bail out at some point, many before their seat had gotten warm. Same as happens to every other party with the founder’s name in the title – see Palmer and PHON for details.

    I would be interested to see if anyone elected under the Reason/Sex banner stuck with the party long term (given than Patten is a very different character to the egocentric mob of Hanson, Palmer and Hinch).

  9. Hi Expat – Thanks, yes you are correct, my mistake. Anyhow a better outcome with her in Parliament for 4 years, not 8 years, before she is defeated as an independent assuming she does not suck up to another party. But why would they take he in as she has proven she is unreliable

  10. Hi Expat – Thanks, yes you are correct, my mistake. Anyhow a better outcome with her in Parliament for 4 years, not 8 years, before she is defeated as an independent assuming she does not suck up to another party. But why would they take her in as she has proven she is unreliable

  11. @Daniel

    “Next time round” has nothing to do with “this time round” for any MLCs. You and Adrian are confusing the federal senate (8 year terms) with the Victorian upper house (4 year terms).

  12. There may well be GTV reform in Victoria by the time the 2022 election rolls around which means Cumming is even less likely to retain her seat.

  13. The fact that someone defects after being elected depends a lot on changed circumstances. Don Lane and Brian Austin stood as coalition candidates. Prior to election they refused to answer questions on whether defection to Joh Bjelke – Pietersen was a possibility after election. I spent day on a rough booth handing out HTV for Don Lane and fully supported his decision to join National Party. Ashby- Hanson party has lost large numbers because Ashby and Hanson think that they should be subservient to Party in all things. NO ONE HAS RIGHT TO TELL ELECTED MPs WHO TO EMPLOY OR HOW TO VOTE ON ANY ISSUE. PH Ashby all thought that MPs WERE SUBSRVIENT to the party. The MPs defections told party who was boss. I know nothing about Hinch defection and would say that without the background we should be careful in commenting. Cumming may have good reasons but the people who elected her deserve a full explanation.

  14. With regard to Cumming – it’s not really clear whether she defected or Hinch booted her, as it seems pretty mutual and both are claiming it was their choice.

    There was a leadership ballot for the HinchMob upper house team and Cumming lost to Stuart Grimley. She cracked it over this, and Hinch says he subsequently sacked her, whereas Cumming says she quit.

    Cumming added though, that a further reason is that she doesn’t want anything to do with Glenn Druery.

  15. The voters, who elected them, tell MP’s what to do and it they dont support voters views they may loss voter support and then their seat next election.

  16. There is a radio interview between Hinch and Neil Mitchell about this on line and an earlier radio interview with then Cr Cumming on a car parking issues and she was pretty ordinary then in her attitude and evasive answers to questions.

  17. West Metro, whilst strong, isn’t as anti Liberal as North Metro. Plus he has the #1 spot, and even North Metro elected a Liberal on BTLs.

  18. Adrian
    Voters do not elect an agent to go and vote for them. They elect a person to represent them. It would be worthwhile all political activists reading Edmund Burke’s Bristol speech to dee the difference between agent and representative.
    1957 ALP split in Qld was over whether unelected ALP Conference could direct ALP members how to vote. We do not have direct democracy and if we did those who actually participate would not be representative of community. No one has the right to tell MP’s how to vote not even the voters who elect them. Of course if MP strays from path too far they will be slaughtered like sheep at following election. Voters are owed an explanation and so far I have not heard this from Cumming. It is easy to be anti Glen Drurey after gaining his help but Drurey May have a long memory and Cumming will need to work very hard not to suffer from Glen Drurey’s retaliation in 4 years time.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

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