Oakleigh – Victoria 2018

ALP 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Steve Dimopoulos, since 2014.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Oakleigh covers the suburbs of Carnegie, Huntingdale, Murrumbeena, Notting Hill and Oakleigh and parts of Chadstone, Clayton, Mount Waverley, Mulgrave and Ormond. Oakleigh covers northeastern parts of the City of Glen Eira and south-western parts of the City of Monash.

History
Oakleigh has existed since the 1927 election. The seat has alternated between the Labor Party and the Liberal Party. From 1982 until 2010, the seat was a bellwether electorate. The seat has usually been marginal.

The seat was first won in 1927 by the ALP’s Squire Reid. he held the seat until his defeat in 1932 by Vinton Smith, an unendorsed Liberal candidate. Smith held the seat until 1937, when Reid defeated him again. Reid held the seat until 1947.

Reid was defeated in 1947 by Liberal candidate John Lechte, who only held the seat for one term, losing in 1950 to the ALP’s Van Doube.

Doube held the seat until 1961, when he lost his seat. He later held the seat of Albert Park from 1970 to 1979.

Oakleigh’s longest serving MP was the Liberal Party’s Alan Scanlan, who held the seat from 1961 to 1979. He was defeated in 1979 by Race Mathews.

Mathews had been a federal Labor MP from 1972 to 1975, and served as a minister in the Cain state Labor government from 1982 to 1988.

Mathews was defeated in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Denise McGill, then Mayor of Oakleigh. McGill held Oakleigh until her defeat in 1999. She currently serves as a Monash City councillor.

McGill was defeated in 1999 by Ann Barker, who had previously been the ALP Member for Bentleigh from 1988 to 1992.

Barker has won re-election in Oakleigh in 2002, 2006 and 2010.

Barker retired in 2014, and Labor’s Steve Dimopoulos won the seat.

Candidates

Assessment
Oakleigh has become a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steve Dimopoulos Labor 15,90345.8+4.3
Theo Zographos Liberal 13,30338.3-1.4
Steven Merriel Greens 4,61713.3-1.5
Anna ScottoIndependent6771.9+1.9
Parashos KioupelisIndependent2600.7+0.7
Informal1,6624.6

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steve Dimopoulos Labor 20,22458.2+3.1
Theo Zographos Liberal 14,53641.8-3.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Oakleigh have been divided into three parts: central, east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.2% in the west to 62.6% in the centre.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 10.7% in the east to 14.4% in the west.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West14.455.29,22326.5
Central12.762.66,54718.8
East10.761.55,75216.5
Other votes12.954.15,63516.2
Pre-poll14.657.97,60321.9

Election results in Oakleigh at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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3 COMMENTS

  1. Will become marginal and closer than many think. Dimopoulos has been a poor choice, many residents angry about him with regards to Skyrail. He has been awol and done nothing, will probably hold but except this to swing say 4-6%

  2. To be honest I think Steve is one of the more visible local MPs compared to many other seat warmers. The Skyrail controversy might see some local hits in the Glen Eira end of the electorate, but I can’t see that doing much in the Monash end.

    I’d be more inclined to say a swing of – 2% or – 3% at best.

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