- Gavin Jennings (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Melbourne Province 1999-2006.
- Inga Peulich (LIB), since 2006. Previously Member for Bentleigh 1992-2002.
- Gordon Rich-Phillips (LIB), since 2006. Previously MLC for Eumemmerring 1999-2006.
- Bob Smith (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Chelsea 1999-2006.
- Adem Somyürek (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Eumemmerring 2002-2006.
South Eastern Metropolitan region covers the electoral districts of Carrum, Clayton, Cranbourne, Dandenong, Frankston, Lyndhurst, Mordialloc, Mount Waverley, Mulgrave, Narre Warren North and Narre Warren South. This region covers the outer fringe of Melbourne’s suburbs to the southeast of the city.
All eleven seats in the region are held by the ALP. Three of those seats are marginal, including Mount Waverley, which is the most marginal Labor seat in the state. A number of other seats have margins between 6% and 12%, and four seats are held by margins over 15%.
|Democratic Labor Party||3,276||0.89||0.0538|
|Christian Democratic Party||2,468||0.68||0.0405|
|Geraldine Gonsalvez (Group E)||1,557||0.43||0.0256|
The Labor Party dominated the vote in South Eastern Metropolitan, winning almost 50% of the primary vote, and giving them almost three quotas in their own right.
With the ALP winning 2.98 quotas, and the Liberal Party winning 2.02 quotas, there was no doubt about the result. With four seats decided on primary votes, the ALP was very close to a third seat.
Preferences were distributed until all candidates bar the lead Family First and Greens candidates and the third Labor candidates had been excluded.
- Smith (ALP) – 0.9834 quotas
- Reiher (GRN) – 0.5737
- Hermans (FF) – 0.4089
At this point, Hermans was excluded, easily electing the ALP’s Bob Smith. The final margin for the ALP over the Greens was 11.62%.
The Liberal Party is running Inga Peulich, Gordon Rich-Phillips and Gladys Liu. The Greens are running Colin Long. The Democratic Labor Party is running Geraldine Gonsalvez, who ran last time as an independent.
The ALP’s first two seats and the Liberal Party’s first seat can be judged as safe. Assuming that there will not be a swing against the Liberal Party, you can also assume that the second Liberal seat will not be in trouble.
A swing of about 6% from the Labor Party to the Greens would put the Greens in with a shot of winning a seat off the ALP. While a significant swing, it remains a possibility.
Family First also polled strongly in the region, with over 30% of a quota. With favourable preferences, some luck and possibly a swing in their favour, Family First could also be in with a chance.
It also remains a possibility that the ALP could suffer from a swing to the Liberal Party. If the Liberal Party could reach around 2.6 quotas, then preferences from Family First and other small parties could see them overtake the ALP and win a seat, although they would need to gain quite a lot of ground.