Caloundra – Queensland 2024

Its reported in the Australian the LNP preselection for the Sunshine Coast seat of Caloundra, which Labor won for the first time in 2020, was expected between Alister Eiseman, a local car salesman, against Kendall Morton, former director of Home Care Assistance Sunshine Coast. It’s reported David Crisafulli preference would be Morton to try and meet their target for woman preselection’s. But Crisafulli won’t intervene fearing a backlash from rank and file similar to what happened for the Liberals in NSW.

On paper I know some think a swing to the LNP on the pendulum should be a LNP gain. But factors such as sophomore surge, Queensland’s swing not always uniform because its so decentralised, and Caloundra changing demographics throws up some uncertainty’s in this seat. It took MP Jason Hunt three attempts to win the seat of Caloundra. I imagine he won’t giving up the seat without a fight. This seat will be an interesting one to watch out for on election night.

Its been reported businesswoman Kendall Morton won the LNP preselection to contest the state seat of Caloundra.

This will be a real battleground along with others that flipped to Labor in 2020 or 2017.

The 2020 election was a perfect storm for the LNP – retiring member, disorganised party and of course, Covid. The beachside areas like Caloundra, Golden Beach and Pelican Waters all have a very high median age and a large population of over 60’s. I believe that a lot of them begrudgingly voted Labor in 2020 because of Queensland’s hard border – a very popular policy amongst this cohort. There was more fear pre-vaccine and when Covid was less than a year old. It also helped Labor when Palaszczuk, as a pandemic-era Premier, got all the airtime.

I sense this is leaning to the LNP as the normally conservative Pelican Waters and pre-poll and postal voters will return to the LNP as the Covid factor is gone. However, Caloundra West and Baringa are strongly Labor-leaning and have grown sharply in population. There’s also a growing Green vote in Dicky Beach and Caloundra. These forces may or may not save Labor.

At this stage, not sure which way this seat might go in 2024 but regardless it is likely to be split at the redistribution due after. The Aura & Hinterland parts in the west may likely remain competitive for Labor but the eastern parts that would keep the Caloundra name should return to LNP leaning.

I am really intrigued why this seat was won by Labor, was it mostly Covid or is there demographic change here helping Labor? During the Beattie years Labor never won this seat but did win Kawana which is now safe LNP which what i am not sure what makes this different to the rest of the Sunshine Coast.

@Nimalan maybe COVID and there may be some demographic change. Plus boundary changes.

Beattie and Bligh led Labor to be at least somewhat competitive on the Gold Coast but not on the Sunshine Coast, whereas Palaszczuk wasn’t that competitive on the Gold Coast or the Sunshine Coast, but under her leadership Labor managed to win seats like Keppel and Maryborough.

Nimalan, from what I read this seat based in the southern Sunshine Coast is undergoing a lot of growth with new residential estates being developed around Nirimba. Perhaps that is why it is trending more towards a swing district because the seat is no longer solely consisting of just retirees as was the case previously.

I guess after the 2012 landslide the landscape changed like it did in NSW after the 2011 landslide.

In 2007, Labor narrowly lost Port Stephens to the Liberals but regained it in 2015. At the same time, however, Labor still hasn’t regained seats like Badgerys Creek (formerly Mulgoa), Drummoyne, Kiama, Miranda, Oatley, Ryde, etc. And they held Bathurst before 2011 but they won’t get that back, in fact it’s now one of the safest Nationals seats in NSW. And then Bega and South Coast were held by the Liberals for a long time but since the South Coast gets attached to sitting MPs, when they retired, they fell.

Thanks Yoh An and Nether Portal
Yes the new housing estates maybe bringing a younger mortgage belt demographic so is a swing demographic. Agree It does seem that Palaszuck has not been competitive in the Gold Coast apart from holding onto Gaven which does not really have any waterfront anyway. They have been unable to win Bonney, Southport and Burleigh areas that during the Beattie/Bligh years were Labor held. The other seat they seem to miss out in Whitsunday. However, maybe they win Coomera someday as that is growing in population but again that has no real waterfront.

The inland areas of Caloundra West and Baringa and Nirimba are mortgage belt territory with a very low median age as they’re mostly young-ish families. They’ve got new-ish housing estates. Landsborough and Beerwah are more established but still have growing populations. Landsborough is quite Labor-friendly.

The correction in the beachside suburbs of Caloundra, Golden Beach and Pelican Waters will be enough to flip the seat. The aforementioned all have a very high median age and a large population of over 60’s and had swung to Labor during the pandemic.

Caloundra West – Baringa area is undergoing massive population growth. In the latest Regional Population report (22-23 financial year), the Caloundra West – Baringa SA2 grew by a further 9.8%. This has been consistent for the last few years, even preceding the 2020 State Election. This has caused the division of Caloundra to push over quota at +12.49% above average enrolment.

All good points above it will be interesting if massive population growth longer term forces the seat to loose territory West of the Bruce Highway and it consists purely of mortgage belt territory and beachside suburbs.

Caloundra will come back to the LNP this time, even with the gentrification. I can’t see how it doesn’t.

But it’ll be a seat that swings between the major parties given the volatility of the electorate.

While I do agree Caloundra will be closer than some of the other seats expected to swing to the LNP, I would not automatically assume areas like Caloundra West etc will necessarily favour Labor. I think the abundance of young families with a moderate-liberal inclination may very much be persuaded by the LNP’s policies at this election. The particular focus on housing, crime and health if messaged correctly could very useful in winning over these voters. Moreover, as mentioned by others, the COVID swing towards Labor was definitely a factor in the last election and many of these costal area will likely cast a strong LNP vote in rejection of the current government. Additionally, unlike the perception of the previous LNP member, Kendall Morton appears very hardworking and dedicated. These considerations may not save Jason Hunt no matter his lack of personal controversy.

Any ideas what next redistribution will do?

As this seat is over quota and with the growth of new suburbs like Nirimba I think the next redistribution will cause Caloundra to shift more towards the coast, losing inland communities/towns like Beerwah and Landsborough which may have a better fit with the district of Glass House Mountains.

Given the deficits in North qld I’d say it will shed northern areas places like battery Hill and dicky beach

Maybe lose areas north and west of Steve Irwin way

There have been suggestions that demographic change will allow Labor to hold this seat… I wonder

No way. The swing will be 16% to LNP so slightly smaller than neighboring seats, but still enough to make this a safe LNP seat at least for the 2024-2028 term.

Will be marginal in 2028 and will be a key seat

this is one where, while im certainly not yet ready to say the election will end up close, if we have a competitive statewide race as the new resolve poll is indicating we could be moving towards this will be one to watch. absolute must win for labor on any path to government given positive demographic trends.

Miles had to be evacuated after being chased by independent candidate Mike Jessop at a Caloundra polling booth.

According to the Courier Mail, “Jessop is facing serious weapons and stalking charges and has recently been released on bail following an eight-week stint in jail on remand. Earlier this year, police alleged Mr Jessop was found with a shovel, axe, gloves, duct tape, ropes, a cadaver bag and camouflage clothing in his car.”

@Wilson it appears that Mike Jessop is running for the “Independent Whig Party”. It appears he has only three key policies: gambling reform, domestic violence law reforms (“guilty until proven innocent”) and accommodation for the homeless.

The Whigs were a British political party that supported, well, Whiggism, along with classical liberalism. Their rivals were the conservatives, the Tories. The Whigs merged with the pro-free trade Peelites and the leftist Radicals to become the Liberal Party which then became the Liberal Democrats while the Tories became the Conservatives.

I had a look at his website, it’s pretty shit. Looks like some basic HTML site from the 90s. However, he does have an ad asking people to nominate to be the federal candidate for “Voices of Fisher”, which is a community independent movement in the Sunshine Coast-based federal seat of Fisher (where Caloundra is located).

This is his HTV card:
1. Mike Jessop (Whig)
2. Ben Storch (One Nation)
3. Kendall Morton (LNP)
4. Pamela Mariko (AJP)
5. Peta Higgs (Greens)
6. Allison Macalister (Legalise Cannabis)
7. Jason Hunt (Labor)

So his HTV card is quite weird.

Here’s his manifesto:
https://www.whigparty.com.au
He’s saying that the present DV Laws are Guilty until proven innocent and there’s a need for Reform there.
There’s no homeless accomodation in Caloundra, the caravan parks that remain only cater for tourists at peak prices, pubs aren’t required by law to provide accomodation anymore, so don’t, and rezoning laws make it hard to establish motels there.
Perhaps in spite of the negative publicity, i’d expect him to poll well enough with potential Labor voters to get the LNP over the line.

Nether Portal actually make an interest observation in the Fisher thread and note that the LNP underperformed the federal results here. I am guessing the fact that Labor did well is due to a sitting member. Much of this area is now housing estates for young families such as Baringa, Nirimba etc. State Labor has built new schools etc. I dont believe areas like Pelican Waters, Golden Beach are trending Labor. Now that the LNP has the seat they need to focus on service delivery if they do that they can get a sophomore surge next time.

@Nimalan I think Caloundra itself is trending Labor but no places like Golden Beach and Pelican Waters aren’t.

@ Nether Portal
That seems strange to me because Caloundra (suburb) is beachside and i would think it will become wealthier over time. It has a famous surf beach i expect property values to increase significantly.

@Nimalan the suburb of Caloundra is strongly LNP because it’s a wealthy beachside suburb. But the electorate of Caloundra is trending towards Labor, as it has the rapidly expanding new suburbs of Gagalba, Baringa, Nirimba, Banya and Caloundra West (part of the Aura development). These suburbs are more affordable than most areas on the Sunshine Coast, and have lots of younger families moving in.

@ A A
I 100% agree with you about the new mortgage belt suburbs helping Labor here. I thought Nether Portal was referring to the to the Wealthy Beachside suburb of Caloundra itself trending Labor rather than the seat asa whole.
Sometimes confusing when an electorate and suburb share the same name.

*as a whole

@Nimalan yeah I meant the electorate not the suburb. My bad.

But in 2020 Labor still won Caloundra itself.

@ NP
That was probably a high water mark and a Covid election where wealthy retirees may have voted for Labor. Also high pre poll may have skewed this. Having said that it will be good if the new LNP MP worked hard and delivered new services to the rapidly growing housing estates as I alluded to above.

@Nimalan I agree, urban housing estates are battlegrounds these days as we see in Sydney and Melbourne.

Any suggestions for the upcoming redistrbution i am keen to make a submission but would like input to assist me

il get back to you im gonna start mine tongiht. just go through the data and do what you feel is best.

initially i plan to abolish either stretton or toohey and create a new logan seat and probably abolish mirani to create a new sunshine coast seat the problem in the under quota Larger districts has gotten worse then 6 months ago

also the gold coast seats make up around 11 quotas so theres no need to cross the gold coast boundary either all that excess in coomera can just be pushed south to cover the defeceits in the other seats

Thanks John i am particularly interested in Caloundra as it is rapidly growing 🙂

yes there will ikely be a new seat around this area

the most ideal solution would be to push it furher north to Currimindi Creek and then shrink the western boundary possibly to the bruce highway

Surely some new seats have to be created. Definitely another Sunshine Coast seat but I don’t know where. I’ll have to look at the numbers.

@NP based on the numbers im looking at there will be one in Logan and one on the sunshine coast. this will be at the expense of either Stretton or Toohey but i think Toohey is the best option given i would like to maintain the briabane logan boundary. and the sunshine coast will probably see glass house split in two as there is surplus on either side on the seat and its basically the bridge bewteen the seats north and south

an ideal place might be between where moreton bay and sunshine coast councils meet

FYI, the Redistribution Commission called for submissions yesterday – https://redistribution.ecq.qld.gov.au/. They’ve allowed 30 days to lodge, which seems like a shorter time than normal.
The number of electorates is locked at 93 so there won’t be any new ones.
My first thought is that Toohey will go. There’s a massive population sink on Brisbane’s south side and there’s not enough excess in adjoining seats to transfer.
There’s also a problem with the four seats currently covered as large districts where the quota is offset by the size. Gregory, Traegar and Warrego are already under quota and Cook is forecast to also be relatively under by 2032.

and either Burdekin or Mirani will likely be on the chopping block. but overally it should be a neutral change both labor and the lnp will lose a seat but will also gain a new one elsewhere

@mark yore by new ones we mean some seats will be abolished in low growth and underquota areas such as south brisbane and northern qld in favour of new seats in higher growth and ovver quota seats like on the sunshine caost and logan. even thoguhg coomer a iwa y over quata thedefeceit elsewhere on the goldcast will mean that these voters are simply shed to other gold coast seats

wasrrego is fairly simple to solve along with cook its taregar and Gregory that are going to be the cahllenge

This will be the basis for my proposal, having looked at the numbers (per Ben’s post from 2023). I would love some feedback though on the number side of things (I know communities of interest since I live in Queensland).

ONE SEAT CITIES:

Bundaberg:
1. Gain Bargara and Burnett Heads from Burnett.

Hervey Bay:
1. Lose Fraser Island and River Heads to Maryborough.

Mackay:
1. Move Andergrove and north into Whitsunday.
2. Take Bakers Creek from Mirani.

Rockhampton:
1. Leave mostly as it is.

TWO/THREE SEAT CITIES:

Cairns:
1. Remove Kuranda from Cook (which can be tweaked a bit as well losing area to Traeger).

Toowoomba:
1. Unchanged.

Townsville:
1. Mundingburra takes in a lot of Burdekin and doesn’t become an entirely Townsville seat anymore.

SEQ (OUTSIDE BRISBANE):

Gold Coast:
1. Split Coomera into two seats.
2. Abolish Gaven and split it between Mudgeeraba, Southport and Theodore.

Ipswich:
1. A new seats is created from parts of Bundamba, Jordan, Logan and Scenic Rim.

Sunshine Coast:
1. Noosa gains Tin Can Bay from Gympie.
2. A new seats is created in the Sunshine Coast Hinterland, including Beerwah, Kenilworth, Landsborough and Maleny. Maybe this will be Irwin?

BRISBANE:

Brisbane CBD:
1. Cooper is abolished and replaced by a new seat that takes the parts of McConnell north of the Inner-City Bypass, Wooloowin and parts of Ascot from Clayfield, Grange from Stafford, anywhere east of Wardell Street from Ferny Grove and anywhere east of The Gap (but not including The Gap) from Cooper.
2. Maiwar loses Fig Tree Pocket to Moggill.
3. South Brisbane is abolished and absorbed by Greenslopes, McConnell and the Miller-Mount Ommaney merger.

Moreton Bay:
1. Pine Rivers loses Dayboro to Glass House.
2. Pumicestone loses Bribie Island to Glass House.
3. Morayfield takes more of Caboolture from Pumicestone.
4. Pumicestone gains Burpengary Easy from Bancroft.
5. Murrumba loses Kallangur to Bancroft to avoid having to lose area to Sandgate on the other side of the Pine River.

North Side:
1. Sandgate takes the northern part of Aspley so it borders Strathpine in Pine Rivers.
2. Clayfield loses Wooloowin and parts of Ascot to the new inner Brisbane seat.

Redlands:
1. Capalaba and Oodgeroo are merged, with this new seat also taking in Victoria Point from Redlands.
2. Chatsworth and Mansfield are merged.
3. Springwood takes parts of Macalister.

South Side:
1. Stretton is abolished and is absorbed by Toohey, Waterford and Woodridge.
2. Miller and Mount Ommaney are merged.

Western Brisbane:
1. Moggill gains Fig Tree Pocket from Maiwar and Fernvale from Lockyer.

Thoughts?

@NP the things with abolishing streeton is it then crosses the brisbane/logan boundary. which they tend to want to avoid. by abolsihing toohey instead the remaing brisbane seats can then be topped up.
in regards to ipswich it sheds parts of logan to help create a new logan seat and then absorbs the excess of ipswich seats.

capabala/oodgeroo and redlands make up the 3 redlands seat and are about 10% collectively under quota so they can then take in parts of springwood wich helps contribute to the new logan seat

Gold caost my plan it to just push that excess in coomera south this will probably result in the splitting of gaven as well a reestablishing Nerang along the river if my plan works.

that should be scenic rim sheds parts of logan not ipswich.

also bundamba can take in the parts of ipswich from jordan