Pittwater – NSW 2023

LIB 20.8% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Rob Stokes, since 2007.

Geography
Northern beaches of Sydney. The seat covers the former Pittwater council area and northern parts of the former Warringah council area. The seat covers Narrabeen, Warriewood, Elanora Heights, Mona Vale, Newport, Avalon and Scotland Island.

Redistribution
No change.

History
The seat of Pittwater has existed since the 1973 election. It has been dominated by the Liberal Party throughout that period. The Liberal Party has won the seat at every general election, although it was won by an independent at the 2005 by-election, and he held the seat until 2007.

The seat was first won in 1973 by Liberal Premier Robert Askin. He had first been elected to Parliament in 1950 as the member for the new seat of Collaroy. He became Leader of the Opposition in 1959, and ended 24 years of Labor rule in NSW when he became Premier at the 1965 election.

Collaroy was abolished in 1973, and Askin moved to the new seat of Pittwater, covering much of the same territory as his former seat. Askin retired as Premier and from Parliament in 1975.

The 1975 Pittwater by-election was won by Liberal candidate Bruce Webster. He held the seat until 1978.

Pittwater was won in 1978 by Liberal candidate Max Smith. He won re-election in 1981 and 1984, but after winning a third term in 1984 he resigned from the Liberal Party to sit as an independent. He resigned from Parliament in 1986.

The 1986 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Jim Longley. He served as a minister from 1992 to 1995, and retired in 1996.

Another by-election was held in 1996, and was won by John Brogden. He was promoted to the Coalition frontbench after the 1999 election. In March 2002, he challenged Opposition Leader Kerry Chikarovski and won a narrow party room vote. He led the Liberal Party to a landslide defeat in 2003, but later in the term appeared on track to win the next election.

Following the retirement of Premier Bob Carr in 2005, Brogden was exposed for offensive comments he made about the retiring Premier’s wife, and he was forced to resign as Liberal leader. Shortly after, he made an unsuccessful suicide attempt, and resigned as Member for Pittwater.

At the following by-election, the Liberals were hit hard by accusations that Brogden’s opponents in the party had pursued him and brought about the end of his political career. The seat was won by independent candidate Alex McTaggart, the Mayor of Pittwater.

At the 2007 election, McTaggart lost to Liberal candidate Rob Stokes, a former advisor to John Brogden. Stokes has been re-elected three times.

Stokes served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the O’Farrell government, and has served as a minister since 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Rob Stokes is not running for re-election.

  • Rory Amon (Liberal)
  • Jacqui Scruby (Independent)
  • Hilary Green (Greens)
  • Craig Law (Sustainable Australia)
  • Jeffrey Quinn (Labor)

    • Assessment
    Pittwater is a safe Liberal seat, barring a strong local independent.

    2019 result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Robert Stokes Liberal 28,170 57.4 -10.4
    Miranda Korzy Greens 7,518 15.3 -0.8
    Jared Turkington Labor 6,168 12.6 -0.2
    Suzanne Daly Sustainable Australia 1,832 3.7 +3.7
    Michael Newman Keep Sydney Open 1,644 3.3 +3.4
    Natalie Matkovic Animal Justice 1,417 2.9 +2.9
    Stacey Mitchell Conservatives 1,283 2.6 +2.6
    Stewart Matthews Independent 1,087 2.2 +2.2
    Informal 1,346 2.7

    2019 two-candidate-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Robert Stokes Liberal 29,696 70.8 -4.8
    Miranda Korzy Greens 12,225 29.2 +4.8

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    Candidate Party Votes % Swing
    Robert Stokes Liberal 30,070 72.4 -5.5
    Jared Turkington Labor 11,486 27.6 +5.5

    Booth breakdown

    Booths in Pittwater have been split into four areas based around key suburbs. From north to south these are: Avalon, Newport, Mona Vale, Narrabeen.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in all four areas, ranging from 60.9% in Avalon to 75.8% in Narrabeen.

    Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 11.6% in Avalon and Newport to 13.3% in Narrabeen.

    Voter group ALP prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
    Narrabeen 13.3 75.8 12,215 24.9
    Mona Vale 11.8 72.4 6,645 13.5
    Avalon 11.6 60.9 5,533 11.3
    Newport 11.6 67.8 5,214 10.6
    Pre-poll 12.6 72.3 11,734 23.9
    Other votes 13.2 68.8 7,778 15.8

    Election results in Pittwater at the 2019 NSW state election
    Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, the Greens and Labor.

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    99 COMMENTS

    1. There had been some discussions about whether Rob Stokes runs again, after he missed out on leadership positions. A shame, because he is one of the better ministerial performers.

      If he does run, this seat is a lay-down. Very popular local member. A teal run wouldn’t come close.

    2. Rob Stokes has just announced his retirement from Politics.

      While this may open the door, the Liberal Party will want to make sure that they bring in someone with as much quality as an MP as Stokes.

      I can’t see Falinski running again as he is now officially damaged goods. In terms of who is left on the ground, the ones that come to mind would be Clr Rory Amon or Clr Kylie Ferguson.

    4. I read that Families and Communities Minister Natasha Maclaren-Jones wants to jump to the lower house and is running for preselection here.

      Interestingly, Newport and Avalon Beach are wealthier and older than the southern parts of the electorate but have a higher vote for the Greens and lower voter for the Liberals.

      I don’t foresee a teal or independent winning here in 2023.

    5. 60/40 left right equates to 70/30 lib against alp or green.. opv helps substantially but still safe ish for the liberal party. Curious what was the teal vote here.. teals would do a bit better than the alp

    6. Looked at The Federal figures teals won nearly every booth in Pittwater…I would be very worried if I were the libs with a popular sitting mp retiring

    7. Natasha MacLaren-Jones confirmed for pre-selection for the seat of Pittwater.
      This is very fascinating. Although she does live in Palm Beach, factionally, the seat is held by the left of the Liberal Party, whereas MacLaren-Jones is from the Centre-Right (Hawke). She would definitely have the star power to carry the seat in that regards.

      The question will be who the local branches have as an alternative. As mentioned, Rory Amon is definitely in the picture but, given that MacLaren-Jones is a sitting MLC and Junior Minister, I think every effort will be made centrally to ram her into Pittwater.

    8. Candidate is very important.. the liberal position has weakened with Mr Stokes’s retirement. A potential teal would be to the left of a right factional Candidate.. would a prominent right liberal candidate bring a greater vote to balance that? If Willoughby is an example..such a change caused a very close vote in that seat. I would say no….also there will be a swing to Labor if this Was a straight Alp / liberal vote. I suspect some of the the dynamics will be the overlapping federal seat. But this seat is much stronger for the teals then Mackellar…… the teals if they can find a good candidate can win here

    9. I just want to nip this Teal discussion in the bud at this point. On the ground on the Northern Beaches, the Teal discussion is majorly over-blown at this point and the reason is straightforward for two reasons:
      1. Simon Holmes a Court is focusing his energies on the Victorian Election, with the intention of extracting the last bit of his vendetta on Josh Frydenberg.
      2. The Donation Laws in NSW makes it incredibly difficult for Fundraising to occur for the Teals, unless they form a full-blown political party.

    10. Agree Hawkeys_au and agree with your reasons.

      On the lower north shore, there has been 3 puff pieces in the media recently about North Sydney’s Independent are gunna do this, gunna do that. But it’s now October and there’s still no whiff of a candidate in nay of the three seaks spoken of. Good people who want to go an be an Independent in State Parliament are few on the ground. And if you hold conservative social views, the Teal’s will not support you.

    11. But if you saw the federal election.vote.would not you be tempted to run.as a teal especially if the libs pick a right.factional candidate
      Independents. Don’t have to be. Backed by
      Simon.homes.a court.

    12. Mick, it is possible that some popular figures may wish to run as independents even without backing of external individuals/groups like Simon Holmes a Court (some examples include Larissa Penn in Willoughby and possibly Carolyn Corrigan in North Shore). However, their number would be far less than the teals who did run federally.

    13. Seats like this cannot be won.by.labor. or the greens. So a teal or an independent would be tempted. The opinion.polls suggest an.8 to 12% swing.to Labor with Labor outpolling the conservatives on.primary votes

    14. Branches in this seat are dominated by Moderate faction, Natasha Maclaren-Jones smelling blood and putting her hand up straight away is going to cause a world of pain as she is from the central right faction and they are not going to go down without a fight. However, she has got her nose in front and there is no clear Moderate challenger. Falinski, as previously said, is damaged goods and lives in Wakehurst anyway.

      Add to that, this area had the strongest booths in Mackellar for Sophie Scamps who dominated along the coast especially around Avalon/Newport as opposed to Belrose/Davidson where Falinski won most of those booths, Maclaren-Jones, being a conservative, is probably not a good fit for this area as she is basically an ideological carbon copy of Bronwyn Bishop and was her protege and long term staffer. Her husband, Damien took most of the blame for her doomed helicopter flights which pretty much ruined his chances of being her successor in Mackellar, when Falinski beat her in preselection in 2016. I would have thought Maclaren-Jones would be a better fit in Davidson where O’Dea is retiring, but she lives in Palmy.

      The Coalition has an uphill battle in 2023, going for a fourth term and with the loss of Stokes’ incumbency in this seat, the conditions are good in Pittwater for a teal challenge to Maclaren-Jones.

    15. Yes Stokes retiring harms the liberals.
      Don’t know much about liberal party factions but in a area dominated by moderates picking some one from the hated Hawke centre right faction would not help them. Potentially a teal like candidate could do well here. A fractured vote with alp green and a ind candidate to the left of the endorsed liberal candidate could make this seat retention very difficult. I would suggest that Nathasa’s as a candidate would make that task.more difficult

    16. Confirmation that Rory Amon will run for pre-selection as well.

      This makes it Maclaren-Jones vs Amon.

      A lot of what Echt wrote is accurate. Maclaren-Jones is basically an ideologically lighter version of Bronwyn Bishop.

      In terms of the recent movements around here, the independent movement hasn’t really gathered the same steam as it has previously. The reason why the mention of Simon Holmes a Court here is that the biggest trend that drove Scamps forward here is that the donations and funding from Holmes a Court went into a massive digital and social Media Campaign. But with donation laws and limitations being a lot stricter compared to Federal, this makes it more difficult for the Teal Movement. Add onto that the need to pivot from the Victorian Election, I can’t see that the Teals will have enough time to mount a serious challenge.

      Considering the local popularity of Stokes, anyone he personally endorses can pretty much walk in.

    17. It’s best that the Liberals preselect a moderate small-l liberal to minimise a teal, independent challenge and a voter backlash.

      Voters in affluent, small-l liberal seats aren’t as kind to hard right Liberals anymore. Take a look at Warringah (2022 federal election) and Willoughby (2022 state by-election)

    18. Votante, I’ll say this – your insinuated characterisation of Maclaren-Jones and Tim James as hard right is ridiculous. I know the pair of them well and they are definitely not cut from the same cloth as someone like Tony Abbott or David Clarke.

    19. Heard on the grape-vine that Claudia Longley, daughter of former member Jim Longley, has nominated for pre-selection for the Liberal Party.

      This is now a 3-cornered seat.

      The early word is that, if it falls her way, Tash would win the Central Component but the Local Component would be split between Longley and Amon. If the Central doesn’t fall Tash’s way, then it is a straight fight between Longley and Amon.

      At least they have 3 locals of the Northern Beaches.

    20. Hawkeye. Is the central component 50% ? Or less? and can you guess how the central component might split. Close or overwhelming for Natasha.. I am just curious.. if of course you consider this too secret let me know

    21. More than happy to discuss.
      The Central Component can vary, depending on what is agreed from State Exec. It could be a full Plebiscite (aka 0% from Central Component) to 50:50. Some seats may even have close to 100% central component, due to a lack of branches within the electorate. This generally happens with weaker seats or emerging seats for the Liberal Party.

      Given that this is Pittwater, my guess is that you would be looking at not more than a 60:40 local:central split. It could be a 50:50 split but I’d say that would be unlikely.

      As for whether it benefits Natasha or not, it depends on what SEC (State Electorate Conference) the Central Component chooses from. The Central Component will always have State Exec representatives included, along with members from random branches in a set of SEC’s. Given that Natasha is a sitting MLC, junior minister, a local and a former Party President, I daresay that she would go some way, if the Central Component is included.

      However, given the history of Pittwater, she would only have a handful of branches in her favour. Those would be split between Amon and Longley.

    22. Word on the ground is Scamps is continuing to try and find a candidate to run against the Incumbent Liberal Party but is struggling for traction.

      She has been targeting members of Your Northern Beaches but, to no avail at this point.

    23. @ Hawkeye_au.

      Do you find it surprising that the Local Independent groups haven’t yet announced any candidates (“candidate with their support”, LOL)? It’s 5 months today to election day and to my knowledge, there is yet to be any high profile IND announcements north of the harbour.

      I’m thinking that despite the potential for a hung parliament, the lure of being a State IND MP is not strong – most people that want a career in politics are already active within a Party (some switch early on to ensure they have a chance at a career) and those that might come to such a decision later in life, are already members of their preferred party.

    24. I’m not surprised but for different reasons. First off, the Independent Wave was much stronger at a Federal Level, especially as the gap was wide open for a more centrist grouping or candidates.

      In NSW, it is much harder for several reasons:
      1. Optional Preferential voting means that results are a lot closer to FPTP than CPV. Effectively, unless you finish 1st on Primaries or are close in 2nd place, you won’t come back.
      2. NSW Donation laws are the stiffest in the country. So much so that Simon Holmes a Court is not as willing to part with cash, especially given that he would need to go through an entire audit process, or set up an actual party which would expose him to the same laws.
      3. NSW is a much more pragmatic state these days. The campaigning is all about services and not as ideologically driven as some of the other states.

    25. All good. I agree with the reasons. All the movements are making big noises with lots of media puff pieces, but there are few candidates announced yet so maybe they are finding all the going harder then they expected. Their best skill is self promotion though and the media laps it up.

      I’m confused Hawkeye_au as to who you think will run for the Libs in which seat – where Natalie Ward runs seems to be the key as you think Wakehurst is being set aside for her but earlier you said she’d nominated for Davison?

      Now that all potential retirements appear to be known, can you provide us all a full list across upper norther Sydney. I could stitch it together from all the threads but I’d probably get at least one wrong.

    26. Hi Insider,

      Funny you should post at this time. SMH now reporting that Natasha MacLaren-Jones has withdrawn her nomination, which pretty much means that Rory Amon has a free run at Pittwater. There may be some opposition from Claudia Longley but I think this one is a slam dunk.

      Expect Rory Amon to be the Liberal Candidate for Pittwater.

      I will post Wakehurst and Davidson in their relevant seat profiles.

    27. I decided to break down the likely 2CP for this electorate from the Redbridge poll:
      Primary:
      LIB: 37%
      ALP: 26%
      IND: 22%
      GRN: 9%
      OTH: 4%
      As 1% are undecided and there is no way of knowing what the Others vote may go to, there is around a 4% margin of error for this estimate.
      2PP:
      LIB 5.3% vs ALP, LIB 3.2% vs IND
      The idea there will be a 17.1% 2PP swing against the Liberals is laughable really, although the Liberals would still hold on.

    28. Seems like local complainer Rory got nominated for the libs
      Matt Kean not too happy about it
      Hopefully for Pittwater a decent independent candidate runs

    29. Liberal hold. Teal no chance. Just look at the Victorian state election. Kew didn’t budge.

      The NSW coalition are much better campaigners and less toxic than their Victorian counterparts.

    30. Rory Amon is a local councillor in the area so he should have some profile. This seat is the 4th safest Liberal seat in the state on a 2PP margin on a margin of 22.4% vs ALP (Same as Castle Hill) and has a Liberal primary vote of 57.4%, while the combined Labor and Green vote is 27.9%. Even doubling the combined Labor and Green vote, it’s still less than the Liberal primary vote from last time, combined with Perrottet not being nearly as unpopular as Scott Morrison. At the Victorian election, in the teal seats the Liberal primary vote was similar to the federal election but the teal vote was much less. While I think the lesser profile of Minns compared to Dan Andrews and the marginal status of the seats may lead to a higher teal vote, a more competent Liberal party would increase the Liberal vote. Even on Climate 200’s own polling the Liberals would win. There may be a large swing but I don’t see the margin dropping below 6%.

    31. yes Rory Amon has a local profile. His work at local council has been to stir up trouble and pick up the latest culture war talking points.
      Local support seems split between adoring sycophants and sensible objectors
      I haven’t heard much from him since he blocked me from commenting on his Facebook page and stopped replying to my emails when I asked him to follow up some of his impractical ideas

    32. The seat is safe liberal against
      Alp although on an inflated margin. BUT should a teal enter
      The contest all they need to
      Do is outpoll the liberal and
      Finish second. This seat is
      Uncertain in a 3 way contest. Opv causes problems with a split vote minus the sitting
      Mp who probably would have won

    33. Look at the left right split
      Close to 60/40 opv gives
      The libs about a 10% bonus
      This seat is not ultra safe as
      70% 2pp vote suggests. IF
      Rory wins preselection.and
      He is a strange candidate then
      This says to a would be teal
      Or indep. We can do better..

    35. Local campaign run by a few people that helped Sophie Scamps are looking for a community independent and had expressions of interest closed on October 25
      No candidate has been announced so doubtful they will have much chance

    36. Apparently they’re announcing a candidate on December 13, which is quite late as the Liberals are about to finalise their candidate for Pittwater. No signs of an independent or Liberal candidate for Wakehurst as of yet.

    37. Confirmed that they are really struggling to find a candidate at this stage.
      In terms of the Liberal Candidate, Rory Amon is probably more in line with the views of the seat, given that Natasha MacLaren-Jones, although a strong performer, is more conservative (not Abbott Conservative, by any means but the mainstraem conservative).

    38. The Teal’s have had a candidate for weeks, but they are just watching the Libs shoot themselves in the foot.
      It’s one of Dr Scamps staffers.
      An unmarried 30 year old white male is their ideal opponent, so they are just watching the train wreck that is the Pittwater preselection and hoping Rory Amon emerges from the ashes.

    39. I have looked at the seats I am
      Certain the liberals and nats
      Will win in the current climate
      Assuming sff and independents such as Mr Mcgirr are re elected
      And they take no seats off Labor
      Including Bega. Which I think
      Is a valid assumption. I find lots probably most seats are
      Competitive which means a change is reasonably possible

    40. The seat is safe liberal against
      Alp although on an inflated margin. BUT should a teal enter
      The contest all they need to
      Do is outpoll the liberal and
      Finish second. This seat is
      Uncertain in a 3 way contest. Opv causes problems with a split vote minus the sitting
      Mp who probably would have won

    41. Now this does not mean that a Labor or a well placed candidate will win but they could. The seats placed outside
      Thus category are very few. Eg Cronulla Vaucluse Tamworth Castle Hill. THIS suggests to
      Me a alp win and a potential landslide.

    44. Latest rumour is that there are moves in place to block Rory Amon winning pre-selection, likely pushed by Matt Keane.
      Rumour is that either Natasha MacLaren-Jones or Natalie Ward will go into Pittwater. This would actually be of benefit to the Liberal Party as it would also allow them to move Melanie Gibbons to the LC

    45. Hawkeye is Rory considered a moderate compared to Natasha or Natalie who are ‘soft conservatives’ similar to Morrison and Alex Hawke? Although Natasha and Natalie are female, which would be better for the Libs instead of another male candidate.

    46. I think parachuting a candidate in to Pittwater would be worse electorally for the libs than Rory Amon (unless it was Gladys)

      Maybe Kristine Keneally could run in an electorate closer to home

    47. Bazza, agree with you that parachuting an outsider would be a bad look. But I thought both Natasha and Natalie live nearby (maybe outside the district) so it is not like Kristina Keneally being a total outsider.

      I think the Liberal Party probably have to accept quotas are required to increase the ‘gender diversity’ within their ranks even though it is forced in a sense. Alternatively, have open primaries where everyone not just registered party members can vote for a nominee.

    48. @Bazza, both Natasha and Natalie live in the Greater area of the Northern Beaches. Natasha actually lives in the electorate (along with a regional base for her work in the Southern Highlands) while Natalie Ward is in Manly. Given the close proximity of Manly, Wakehurst, Davidson and Pittwater, no-one bats an eyelid around here, as long as they live within the Northern Beaches as a whole.

      Love your comment about KK. In fact, Scotland Island is part of Pittwater so it would suit her perfectly. But the Labor Brand is dead in the Northern Beaches. They can’t even get a candidate on Council.

      @Yoh An – Mostly correct. I’d say Natalie is closer to Rory than Natasha in terms of moderate/Conservative but definitely not as conservative as Morrison or Hawke.

    50. @Hawkeye_au how would the local branch respond to their pick being overruled based on my assumption that Rory has been working the local branches for support over the last 10 years or so

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