Moore – Australia 2022

I think Labor missed their chance to take this seat in 2022 and that come 2025 the Liberals will increase their margin here.

The 2PP swing in Moore was pretty similar to the WA statewide swing to Labor (10.96 vs 10.55 statewide) and I don’t see much evidence on past federal results that Labor is/has been making inroads in this part of town. The swings in 2016, 2019, 2022 seem basically in line with the statewide swings.

I would expect that the Liberals will make some kind of recovery from the 2022 WA thumping, so they should hold here. I think the result will be similar to to Dickson 2010 or Macarthur 2010, seats where Labor got big swings but narrowly missed out in 2007 and then went backwards when there was a correction back to the Liberals. I feel the question here in Moore is more about how big the swing back to the Liberals will be, and whether that leaves it in play for 2028.

@gpps exactly if they can’t win from opposition with the libs alienating everyone and comrade McGowan at the helm they won’t win now

I also think it was a missed opportunity for Labor to take this seat in 2022. They could’ve campaigned harder on pandemic response, including McGowan’s hard border and the slowness of the vaccine rollout. This would’ve been a big hit in beachside suburbs as they have an older-than-median aged population. I also think the a teal candidate missed their chance and could’ve flipped the seat or at least came second. Areas towards the south and near ECU are quite teal.

At first glance, I suspect there’ll be a natural retreat back to the Liberals statewide in 2025. The redistributions could shore up or slice the Libs’ notional margin. Labor will likely gain a seat in WA through redistribution but at the same time see seats in NSW/Vic abolished or becoming notionally Liberal. In addition to sandbagging Pearce, Swan, Hasluck and Tangney, they may keep Moore as an option in 2025 as part of a path to holding onto majority government.

@votante il guarantee you right now Labor won’t be governing in majority in 2025. Unless Dutton shoots someone down in the street in front of 100 witnesses

@ Yoh An
Agree the area around Cabolture/Moreton Bay region despite it being a growth area is very Anglo unlike Spring Mountain. In the Blair thread, we had a good discussion a couple of days ago how the Greater Springfield is changing the seat as this areas is the very opposite of the white working class demographic that is characteristic of the rest of the seat
@ Votante, i actually think parts of Tangney are more teal like Applecross etc than Moore along with parts of Swan. While Moore may have been narrowly won in 2022 i think it would have been better to win a seat like Deakin where Labor can better entrench themselves than a seat which is a one term wonder. It is why at a Victorian state level Labor was very interested in Bayswater and not interested in Hawthorn as they saw the opportunity to entrench themselves in the former but not the latter. Moore is quite wealthy so can easily fall back to Libs even if Labor did manage to win it. Tangney is also wealthy but i think Labor will try and rely on ethnic votes to hang on something they dont have in Moore if they had managed to win it.

@John, I agree that Labor will struggle to score a majority. They might lose seats like Richmond or Macnamara to the Greens. At best, they end up with a razor-thin majority, like the winning side did at the last three elections.

@Nimalan, Moore is wealthier than average, but not incredibly wealthy. Perhaps it’s in the second quartile. It’s much older and more affluent between the beaches and Marmion Avenue. There’s also very high rates of home ownership. It’s the sort of demographic that is old school Liberal. I agree that greater Melbourne’s marginals are easier for Labor.

There’s talk of Ian Goodenough facing a preselection challenge. Preselection challenges are not common in marginal seats. I guess that he’s not locally popular and the local branches believe a fresh face, perhaps a moderate Liberal, can sandbag this seat better.

@votantw il bet my sizable payout from my ww discrimination claim that Labor won’t get a majority. I think a liberal majority is a bridge too far at this election unless Labor implodes. Given the size of the crossbench ATM it won’t be like 2010 where they were evenly poised to secure minority govt and there were only 5. Greens will side with Labor, Katter with lnp. Sharpie already made it clear she’ll side with whoever has more seats. Wilkie is a wildcard and the teals will most likely side with Labor overall though spender could side with lnp.

John, name the last occasion a 1st term government federally lost (Hint, Great Depression), and what is one solid reason why the coalition “deserve” to be in government again?

Cost of living is more expensive for those of is on welfare or low paying work. It’s only good for those suburban families and big millionaires who can afford houses in the 7 digits and they don’t have to worry, and don’t care about everyone else.

@daniel t Name the last time time the government took a seat from the opposition.before aston. Records are made to be broken. BTW I never said liberals would win I clearly stated it would be a Labor minority. And by houses in the 7 digits you mean pretty much Sydney and Melbourne. Aren’t those mostly Labor seats? Hmm ?

@daniel even though Labor formed govt in 2010 they lost the election

John, I was mostly speaking of areas such as where I use to live (North Lakes) which is the seat of Petrie, even Murrumba Downs in Dickson and Bridgeman Downs (Dickson) all these areas vote LNP and some heavily, they are high income, probably like this seat of Moore which seems to contain suburbs very similar. Working families who are making well over 100k+ a year.

Most people in my area now are apartment dwellers, single or partnered, no children, and are students. That is the norm here and there is no surprise why my area votes heavily Green even though I do not.

While “Teal” seats are high income, They still will never vote Labor, the coalition still won the TPP in these seats, still Liberal territory even if it’s not as much as it used to be, Labor would have to fundamentally change their economic policies to Keynesian economics.

@daniel I can guarantee you won’t find a home home in garyndler worth less then seven figures and if you do there won’t be many. Same with Melbourne or the inner Melbourne seats. There is a gradual shift in Labor demographics they are no longer fighting for the AVG worker thetly are fighting for the inner city elite vote this is why liberals are targettiv those outer seats. I too doubt the lnp can majority govt unless Labor imposes as I previously stated

@ Votante, agree Moore is not like the Teal seats it is in the probably the second tier of affluent seats maybe like Cook, Menzies, Jagajaga, Bennelong etc
@ John, i still would say seats like Grayndler, Melbourne, Sydney are different from Teal seats. While house prices are a very large % of the population in such seats live in apartments and are young renters & students. Having said that i feel Rudd, Albo and Plibasek are probably will be the the last to serve in the leadership team from high income seats. The next generation of leaders such as Jim Chalmers, Amanda Rishworth, Mark Butler, Jason Clare, Ed Husic etc will represent outer suburban electorates. The same election where Labor took power from opposition in 2022 the seat of the last PM to win government from opposition was lost which happens to be an affluent seat.

@Votante Richmond, despite having a large hippie Greens vote, would be a very difficult seat for the Greens to win due to Nationals preferences. Coalition voters usually preference Labor above the Greens. Plus, the Nationals still win rural booths and boots in and around Tweed Heads and Kingscliff.

@ NP
I agree the National vote remain strong in Tweed LGA and Ballina LGA but it depends on the ordering of candidates. The Greens will only win it if Labor slips to 3rd place.

@nimalan the last pm was Morrison.

@ John sorry I meant to insert the word Labor.
Kevin Rudd was the last Labor PM to win government from opposition and he represented the affluent seat of Griffith which was lost in the same election they regained government.

Its been reported that Ian Goodenough is set to lose his preselection against former Sterling MP Vince Connelly. Despite being against the wishes of Peter Dutton. Moore is on a margin of 0.7% which may not be the smartest movie dumping a incumbent. But that margin could change after redistribution.

@political the margin is heavily inflated to Labor on 2022 factors it will return to safe liberal next election. I don’t know why he doesn’t run again in cowan as the redistribution should favour the libs there removing Labor voting eastern areas

He said he will run as an independent. He will barely poll 5% here. He will probably get Peter Slipper numbers. He’ll do worse than Craig Kelly.

He should run in either Pearce, cowan or curtin given those seats don’t have Labor maps sitting

Should have said liberal mps

This could end up being really messy, especially if a civil war breaks out within the party and Ian runs as an independent not that I think he has any chance of winning.

@spacefish Moore is surrounded by seats not occupied by liberals but tradionally vote liberal. Especially if the redistribution is favourable in pearce a d cowan as I expect

Goodenough hasn’t officially declared running as an independent. I think it’s possible he’ll join or even run for a minor right-wing party like One Nation, Australian Christians or Family First.

Given that he just got beaten for preselection as a sitting MP, I doubt the Liberals would welcome him in Pearce or Curtin or Cowan. Plus, there’ll be stiff competition for Liberal preselection for the seats that flipped in 2022. The Libs may give up on Cowan since Anne Aly has a minister’s profile now and she has succesfully defended a marginal seat twice now.