Moncrieff – Australia 2022

LNP 15.4%

Incumbent MP
Angie Bell, since 2019.

Geography
Moncrieff covers the central part of the Gold Coast, covering the coast from Miami to Paradise Waters and Southport, and as far inland as Nerang.

History

Moncrieff was first created at the 1984 election, and has always been held by the Liberal (National) Party.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Kathy Sullivan, who had been a Queensland senator since 1974. Sullivan held the seat until 2001, serving continuously in Parliament for 27 years, a record for any female parliamentarian. She served two brief terms in the Opposition shadow ministry in the 1980s and 1990s, and served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Howard government from 1997 to 2000.

Sullivan was succeeded in 2001 by Steven Ciobo. Ciobo held Moncrieff for the next six terms, retiring in 2019.

LNP candidate Angie Bell won Moncrieff in 2019.

Candidates

  • Angie Bell (Liberal National)
  • Leeanne Schultz (One Nation)
  • James Tayler (Federation)
  • Sonia Berry-Law (Animal Justice)
  • April Broadbent (Greens)
  • Glen Palmer (Labor)
  • Diane Demetre (Liberal Democrats)
  • Timothy Cudmore (Informed Medical Options)
  • Diane Happ (United Australia)
  • Assessment
    Moncrieff is a safe LNP seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Angie Bell Liberal National 47,35651.5-6.8
    Tracey Bell Labor 19,82221.6-3.0
    Sally Spain Greens 8,9009.7-0.4
    Vanessa SibsonOne Nation5,9206.4+6.0
    Karla FreemanAnimal Justice3,5513.9+3.9
    Garry EilolaUnited Australia Party3,4193.7+3.7
    S GryphonLiberal Democrats1,7992.0+2.0
    Darren Alan LongConservative National Party1,1521.3+1.3
    Informal6,3276.4+1.9

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Angie Bell Liberal National 60,07965.4+0.8
    Tracey Bell Labor 31,84034.6-0.8

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas: east, north and west.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 59.9% in the north to 67.3% in the east.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.4% in the west to just under 12% in the east and north.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    East11.567.315,75517.1
    North11.859.914,30515.6
    West8.460.411,27012.3
    Pre-poll8.468.038,14341.5
    Other votes9.965.712,44613.5

    Election results in Moncrieff at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and Greens.

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    3 COMMENTS

    1. Not going to be a very exciting electorate on election night, as is usually the case for the three Gold Coast divisions. But interesting observation in these divisions – LDP appear to be spending A LOT on outdoor media and signage throughout the Gold Coast. Their signage outnumbers the LNP incumbents significantly. I figure that the incumbents here assume that they will only need to invest the bare minimum in outdoor signage to retain their safe LNP seats – directing resources to Logan and Ipswich instead.

      In Fadden, the Campbell Newman senate ticket is being especially emphasised on their outdoor signage. And in Moncrieff they are highlighting this Diane Demetre candidate – especially on the Western Edge of Moncrieff throughout Nerang. I had one person quip to me that some might mistake her for “a home-brand Pauline Hanson”. Haven’t had a particularly big scan of McPherson just yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if their outdoor media spend would be decent here too. I think the LDP strategy is to highlight their campaign in areas where Campbell Newman held on strongly in the 2015 QLD State Election wipe-out. State seats of Surfers Paradise, Mermaid Beach, Mudgeeraba, Coomera, Broadwater come to mind.

      By targeting the Gold Coast, they would also be targeting locations which have flirted with other micro-parties like ONP and UAP at subsequent state and federal elections. For example, the 2020 QLD State Election saw the ONP vote hover at around 5% – 10% on the Gold Coast. The 2015 QLD State Election saw the UAP vote hover at around at a similar range. 2019 federally saw each of the three Gold Coast divisions end-up with a combined ONP/UAP/LDP vote of over 10%!

      LDPs best first-preference votes will come in divisions where they have a higher ballot position than the LNP and can scrape off voters confused by party names. But upon checking, this is not the case in Fadden, Moncrieff and McPherson or their terrible senate position. They have only been so lucky in Blair, Capricornia, Dickson, Longman, Petrie and Ryan.

      Tough to see how Newman is going to cut-through the absolute clutter and variety of Senate candidates in QLD but I do recall that Newman is especially gifted with his appearances in the legacy media (print and television) and might be able to catch a headline or two. Still though, even despite leading the state in the past, it seems that his personal brand and public awareness is now dwarfed by Pauline Hanson & ONP’s. Not to mention the less than ideal public sentiment regarding Newman today following his term.

      Very easy LNP Retain, but might not be won on first-preferences for the first-time in over 20 years.

    2. Interesting insights. And that seems like the most plausible outcome too.

      In general I really can’t see where the path to power is for the LDP in Qld. There just isn’t enough of a base to beat any of the other right wing parties, let alone the LNP, and unlike interstate there aren’t really any multi member seats where they can get to a minimum threshold and build off of those milestones. And Campbell Newman certainly won’t turn that around for them.

    3. Angie Bell has to be one of the most useless politicians ever. Collecting her pay check by towing the party line. Votes strongly against increasing housing affordability, never replies to any email correspondence from her constituents. Time to vote for change and get someone useful that properly represents and bothers to respond to the people that employee her!

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