I’ll be posting a ‘late counting’ summary post at the end of each day.
At the moment there are five seats which are worth tracking. Three are close races between Labor and Liberal: East Hills in southern Sydney, and Gosford and the Entrance on the central coast. The other two are National/Greens races in northern NSW: Lismore and Ballina.
Unfortunately this has taken me a while to work on, so at this point I’ve only produced analysis for East Hills, Gosford and Lismore, and will add in The Entrance and Ballina tomorrow morning and include them in future analyses.
Currently my projections result in the Liberal Party’s lead in East Hills to narrow to about 160 votes, and to end up 439 votes ahead in Gosford, where Labor is currently leading.
|ALP||ALP %||LIB||LIB %||Exhausted|
|Counted so far||15,162||49.43%||15,514||50.57%||2,425|
So far in East Hills, we have two-party-preferred votes only for election-day ordinary votes.
In addition, just under 3000 iVotes, 2500 postal votes and 5,561 pre-poll votes have been counted for primary votes, but not for two-party-preferred. It seems that all iVotes and pre-poll votes have been counted, but I estimate an additional 1000 postal votes.
In addition, I’m estimating an additional 400 declared institution, new enrolment and provisional/silent votes, and approximately 3800 absentee votes (based on the 2011 results).
If that’s the case, I’ve then projected that the Liberal lead will narrow from 352 votes to 161 votes.
Considering all of this, Labor could well still win this seat, if the remaining votes favour Labor more strongly than the projection assumes.
|ALP||ALP %||LIB||LIB %||Exhausted|
|Counted so far||14,228||50.58%||13,900||49.42%||2,944|
We have two-party-preferred votes in Gosford for all election-day ordinary votes, as well as the Sydney Town Hall pre-poll. We have primary votes, but not 2PP votes, for the Gosford pre-poll, the Terrigal pre-poll, declared institutions, iVotes and 1700 postal votes.
I’m expecting another 1700 postal votes, and a lot of prepoll votes at Woy Woy (I’m estimating 5500) and about 3600 absentee votes.
At the moment, Labor candidate Kathy Smith is leading by 328 votes, but I expect Liberal MP Chris Holstein to take the lead by 439 votes by the end of the count.
I expect that the Liberal Party will be advantaged by about 600 votes when preferences are distributed for the pre-poll, postal and iVotes counted so far. The Liberal Party is leading Labor by about 900 primary votes for this batch, so this sounds about right.
I then expect Holstein to gain another 160 votes with the remaining postal and pre-poll votes, and when absentee votes are included.
|NAT||NAT %||GRN||GRN %||ALP||ALP %|
|Counted so far||17,661||42.02%||11,303||26.89%||10,859||25.84%|
There’s been a lot of confusion today about the race in Lismore.
It’s now clear that the NSW Electoral Commission will not be conducting corrected two-candidate-preferred counts in Lismore and neighbouring Ballina, which would probably clarify how close these two seats are. The NSWEC chose to conduct a count on election night between the major parties, despite the Greens outpolling Labor in 2011. That’s always a hard choice to make, but it’s frustrating that the Electoral Commission is proceeding directly to the check count, particularly since the Easter break will delay the final result until well into next week.
Unlike in the past, the NSWEC will for the first time be using a similar technique for lower house counts as they have used for years for the Legislative Council: all ballots will be data-entered into a computer system, and the distribution of preferences will be calculated by “pushing the button”. With a break for the Easter long weekend, we expect these processes to be finished in the middle of next week.
In addition, more confusion was sown by technical problems with the ABC Elections system, which switched back to a Nationals/Labor count. This will be corrected tomorrow morning.
In today’s counting, the Greens lead over Labor has narrowed, while the Nationals have extended their primary vote lead substantially. We now have all election-day votes and iVotes, as well as pre-poll votes from Kyogle, Lismore, Murwillumbah and Sydney Town Hall, and just under 900 postal votes.
We should expect to see about 3600 absentee votes, about 1600 pre-poll votes from Tenterfield, another 1600 postal votes and some small bundles of other votes.
After adding all these votes to the projection, there’s very little change to current percentages. The Nationals go up slightly, and Greens and Labor go down slightly. At this point, the Greens will be about 0.9% ahead of Labor, and should stay in the count.
The second big question is whether sufficient preferences will flow to the Greens to win them the seat.
The experience of the count in Prahran in 2014 suggests that the preference flow from Greens and minors to Labor is about the same as from Labor and minors to the Greens in a three-cornered contest. If anything, the Greens benefit slightly more from Labor preferences.
On election night, Labor was gaining 62% of Greens and other preferences, with the Nationals gaining 8% and 30% exhausting. If you apply that formula to the projected count (which is very similar to the current count), you get the Greens winning by 753 votes, or 50.84%.
Of course, it is hard to know whether preferences will flow this way. Lismore is a very different seat to Prahran, and Labor preferences may not flow as strongly (although Antony pointed out a similar preference split in Noosa in the recent Queensland state election). On the other hand, Labor ran strongly on encouraging voters to number every box, and those votes are unlikely to have flowed to the Nationals. Hopefully in coming days we will be able to gather information from scrutineers about actual preference flows to the Greens and Nationals, as we will be waiting until the middle of next week to have this question answered.