South Barwon – VIC 2018

LIB 2.9%

Incumbent MP
Andrew Katos, since 2010.

Geography
Western Victoria. South Barwon covers areas to the south of Geelong, including the southern suburbs of Geelong, Torquay, Bellbrae, Moriac and Mount Duneed. A majority of the voters live in the City of Greater Geelong, and the electorate also covers eastern parts of Surf Coast Shire.

History
South Barwon was created for the 1976 election. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 until 2002, when the ALP won the seat.

South Barwon was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He had previously won the seat of Bellarine when it was created in 1967 and held it until it was abolished in 1976. He held South Barwon until his retirement in 1982.

The Liberal Party’s Harley Dickinson won South Barwon in 1982. He held the seat until 1992. In 1992 he resigned from the Liberal Party to contest South Barwon as an independent, but lost the seat to the Liberal candidate, Alister Paterson.

Paterson was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he lost to former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield. South Barwon’s demographics had changed as Geelong had grown, and become a marginal seat. Crutchfield was re-elected in 2006.

In 2010, Labor MP Michael Crutchfield was defeated by Liberal candidate Andrew Katos. Katos was re-elected in 2014.

Candidates

  • Darren Cheeseman (Labor)
  • Andrew Katos (Liberal)

Assessment
South Barwon is a very marginal Liberal seat, and could be vulnerable if Labor gains a statewide swing.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Katos Liberal 18,86946.3-1.2
Andy Richards Labor 13,61833.4-2.1
Lisa Ashdowne Greens 5,02312.3+3.2
Nick WallisSex Party8062.0+2.0
Jamie OverendAnimal Justice7781.9+1.9
Steven ThompsonFamily First7691.90.0
Kevin ButlerDemocratic Labour Party4721.20.0
Stephen CharaCountry Alliance4591.1-0.1
Informal1,6593.9

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Andrew Katos Liberal 21,56352.9-2.0
Andy Richards Labor 19,23147.1+2.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in South Barwon have been divided into three areas.

A majority of voters live in the Geelong urban area, and these voters were split into Grovedale and Highton. The remainder of the electorate has been grouped as “South”.

The Liberal Party won a large 57.5% majority in Highton, while Labor won smaller majorities in the south (50.8%) and Grovedale (54.8%).

The Greens vote ranged from 9% in Grovedale to 19.6% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Highton11.057.57,30817.9
South19.649.27,24217.8
Grovedale9.145.26,33015.5
Other votes13.354.66,52916.0
Pre-poll10.155.613,38532.8

Election results in South Barwon at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.