Braddon Archive

7

Braddon and Longman – the maps

The by-elections last night ended up being quite clear and not particularly close in the end. I’ve put together a few maps to highlight some interesting elements.

This first map shows Longman. You can toggle between three different results layers: the 2PP vote, the 2PP swing to Labor, and the swing to One Nation.

The second map shows Braddon, and starts with the primary vote for independent candidate Craig Garland. You can toggle to a 2PP swing map. Overall the ALP has achieved roughly the same result as in 2016, so booths have swung in both directions in equal parts.

I’ll be back later tonight with a quick podcast, but enjoy these maps in the meantime.

2

Podcast #2 – Braddon, Fremantle, Perth and how we name seats

In this episode I’m joined by Maiy Azize and Kevin Bonham. We preview the by-elections in Braddon, Fremantle and Perth, and discuss how we name electorates in light of Batman being renamed. In the news segment we discuss the results of the Darling Range by-election and begin the conversation about single-seat polling (sure to be revisited).

This episode involved guests joining me remotely, and there were some technical hiccups we’ll need to work on. You’ll notice that my guests are not with me for the whole show, but we still have a great conversation.

I mentioned this article about who federal electorates are named after. Kevin also mentions his analysis into single-seat polling which has since turned into this long and interesting post.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

I’ll be back in two weeks, until then, enjoy this episode!

19

Five (5!) federal by-elections on their way with latest s44 blow

The High Court this morning ruled that Senator Katy Gallagher was ineligible to sit in the Senate, making her the 13th federal politician to be undone by section 44 of the constitution in this current parliamentary term. The Court clarified that, while there is room for a person with dual citizenship to be eligible to sit in the parliament if they have taken ‘reasonable steps’, that is only excusable if it is not possible for them to renounce their citizenship. And delays are not enough to invoke that exception.

So Gallagher is out, because her British citizenship was not renounced in time. It also meant that it was no longer tenable for four lower house MPs to stay in parliament.

Labor MPs Justine Keay, Susan Lamb and Josh Wilson, along with Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie, all resigned from parliament this afternoon, triggering by-elections in four different states. This is in addition to the Perth by-election, called following Labor MP Tim Hammond’s retirement last week. Presumably all five will be held on the same date.

Four of these five seats are held by Labor. It will be up to the government as to which seats they contest. Presumably they will contest some and avoid others. The Greens may also have ambitions in Perth or Fremantle, but both are probably out of reach.

I’ve now posted the seat guides for all five races. In Braddon, Longman and Perth, where I had already posted guides for the general election, those pages have now become by-election guides, including all of the pre-existing comments. The comments are now open:

This will be a busy period, just when we were expecting some quiet time before three big elections coming up at the end of this year and early next year, so if you’d like to support this website’s work please consider signing up as a patron.

0

Seat of the day #49: Braddon

Braddon3-2PP-coastBraddon is a marginal Liberal seat in north-western Tasmania, covering Burnie, Devonport and areas in the north-western corner of the state.

Liberal MP Brett Whiteley won the seat in 2013, and holds the seat by a 2.6% margin.

Read more

7

Seat polls – how do they compare?

We’ve seen a surge in seat polls at this election.

By my count I’ve found at least 50 polls which have been publicly released since the beginning of April. This is suggests we are on track for a big increase since 2013. You can download my list of these polls here. William Bowe lists 58 polls in the whole 2013 campaign.

This includes at least twelve seat polls from Newspoll released this morning, although the majority of polls have come from Reachtel.

Others know more about the problems inherent in individual seat polling than I do, but it appears to my eyes that part of the problem is that most seats only get polled once – so we don’t have a sense of a trend, or whether the poll is an outlier. This time around, at least ten seats have been polled at least twice, and in Lindsay we have four publicly-released polls.

The conventional wisdom is that, while Labor is neck-and-neck in the national polls, local swings will stop them, as the Coalition is doing better in their marginal seats as their first-term MPs benefit from new personal votes. This is undoubtedly true to some extent, but I thought it would be worth comparing local polls in each seat to what the state and national swings suggest.

I have taken William Bowe’s latest BludgerTrack estimate, which gives the Coalition 50.5% after preferences, as well as the state 2PP breakdowns, and plugged them into Antony Green’s House of Representatives calculator.

If you take the national swing, you get a result of 82 Coalition, 64 Labor and four others. If you take the state swings, you get a result of 78 Coalition, 68 Labor and four others.

In the following table, I have compared the most recent seat poll for the twenty-nine seats which have produced polls with Labor-Coalition 2PP figures. I have excluded seats where the Nick Xenophon Team, the Greens or an independent are in contention (so no SA seats are included).

SeatMarginNat’l swingState swingLatest pollLNP +/-
Banks (NSW)LIB 2.8%LIB 0.5%LIB 1.2%50/50 (Galaxy, 11 May)-1.2%
Bass (TAS)LIB 4.0%LIB 1.8%LIB 6.5%52% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)-4.5%
Bonner (QLD)LNP 3.7%LNP 0.7%ALP 1.4%56% to LNP (Reachtel, 9 June)7.4%
Braddon (TAS)LIB 2.6%LIB 0.3%LIB 5.0%53% to LNP (Reachtel, 14 May)-2.0%
Brisbane (QLD)LNP 4.3%ALP 0.2%ALP 2.3%51% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)3.3%
Burt (WA)LIB 6.1%LIB 3.1%ALP 1.7%52% to ALP (Newspoll, 13 June)-0.3%
Capricornia (QLD)LNP 0.8%ALP 1.5%ALP 3.6%50/50 (Newspoll, 13 June)3.6%
Corangamite (VIC)LIB 3.9%LIB 1.7%LIB 1.8%51% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)-0.8%
Cowan (WA)LIB 4.5%LIB 1.5%ALP 3.3%50/50 (Reachtel, 9 June)3.3%
Dawson (QLD)LNP 7.6%LNP 4.6%LNP 2.5%50/50 (Reachtel, 7 June)-2.5%
Deakin (VIC)LIB 3.2%LIB 0.9%LIB 1.0%52% to LNP (Reachtel, 9 June)1.0%
Dobell (NSW)ALP 0.2%ALP 2.4%ALP 1.7%51% to ALP (Reachtel, 9 June)0.7%
Dunkley (VIC)LIB 5.6%LIB 1.1%LIB 1.2%52% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)0.8%
Eden-Monaro (NSW)LIB 2.9%LIB 0.7%LIB 1.4%51% to LNP (Reachtel, 19 April)-0.4%
Franklin (TAS)ALP 5.1%ALP 8.1%ALP 3.4%54% to ALP (Reachtel, 14 May)-0.6%
Gilmore (NSW)LIB 3.8%LIB 1.5%LIB 2.2%51% to LNP (Galaxy, 11 May)-1.2%
Hasluck (WA)LIB 6.0%LIB 3.0%ALP 1.8%53% to LNP (Reachtel, 16 June)4.8%
Herbert (QLD)LNP 6.2%LNP 3.2%LNP 1.1%54% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)2.9%
Leichhardt (QLD)LNP 5.7%LNP 2.7%LNP 0.6%52% to LNP (Galaxy, 13 May)1.4%
Lindsay (NSW)LIB 3.0%LIB 0.7%LIB 1.4%52% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)0.6%
Longman (QLD)LNP 6.9%LNP 3.9%LNP 1.8%50/50 (Reachtel, 2 June)-1.8%
Lyons (TAS)LIB 1.2%ALP 1.0%LIB 3.7%51% to LNP (Reachtel, 14 May)-2.7%
Macarthur (NSW)LIB 3.3%ALP 1.1%ALP 0.4%50/50 (Newspoll, 13 June)0.4%
Macquarie (NSW)LIB 4.5%LIB 1.5%LIB 2.2%50/50 (Reachtel, 19 April)-2.2%
Page (NSW)NAT 3.1%NAT 0.8%NAT 1.5%56% to ALP (Reachtel, 19 April)-7.5%
Reid (NSW)LIB 3.4%LIB 1.1%LIB 1.8%51% to LNP (Galaxy, 11 May)-0.8%
Robertson (NSW)LIB 3.1%LIB 0.8%LIB 1.5%51% to LNP (Newspoll, 13 June)-0.5%
Wentworth (NSW)LIB 18.9%LIB 15.9%LIB 16.6%58% to LNP (Reachtel, 31 May)-8.6%

Most of the seats on this list have polls in the 50-52% range – only seven seats had marginals above 52%. Things bounce around in that range, but the margin of error suggests that all of these seats could still be in play.

The interesting diversions include:

  • Bonner – the national and state polls suggest a very close race, but the LNP is winning comfortably.
  • Page – the national and state polls suggest a narrow win for the Nationals, but Labor is on 56%.
  • Tasmania – seat polls in the three Liberal seats in Tasmania all project a closer race than the statewide average, which suggests comfortable re-election for the three first-term MPs.
  • Hasluck – the most recent poll in the sample suggests a small swing against Liberal MP Ken Wyatt, despite state polling in WA suggesting a huge swing to Labor.

I also wanted to run through the trends in seats which have had at least three polls conducted:

  • Bass – Reachtel polled Bass twice in May – the first poll gave the Liberal Party 51%, the second favoured Labor with 51%. Newspoll polled there last week, and the Liberal Party had a lead of 52%.
  • Corangamite – this seat has been polled three times in the last three weeks. The first poll on May 26 had the Liberal Party on 54%, but this dropped to 51% in the two polls conducted in June.
  • Dobell has been polled once a month since April. Labor won 51% in April and 51% again in June, but in between in July the poll was 50/50.
  • Lindsay has been polled four times since April. Labor led with 51% in a Reachtel poll in April. The Liberal Party won easily with 54% in a Galaxy poll in May and a Reachtel poll on June 9, and this dropped to 52% in a Newspoll last week.
  • Macarthur – Labor won 51% after preferences in Galaxy and Reachtel polls in May. A Newspoll last week had the seat as 50/50.

I don’t think this answers the question about whether Labor or Coalition is on track to win. I still think the Coalition is more likely to win than Labor, and Labor needs a higher two-party-preferred vote, but the local seat polls in general confirm the national trend – Labor is just behind, but could win if enough seats break their way.

PS: I’ve started adding seat polls to the seat guides – they’re underneath the assessment section, and above the 2013 election results. So check them out next time you’re reading one of the seat guides.